Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Leaning R and Leaning Trump are not the same thing. That's what I'm trying to tell you.

If I were asked how I lean as Independents were in that poll, I would say R. I lean toward national defense support, market-based solutions, and empowering individual freedom. But I would walk across coals to vote for any Democrat running against Donald Trump.

I look forward to getting to vote for sane Republican candidates at a national level, assuming that ever happens again.

 

So a poll weighted D +5 (which would be an outlier right now) suggests a large amount of lean Rs plus Rs who are actually going to vote Harris is what you are trying to say here.

 

Public Policy Polling has Harris +1 in Georgia, Morning Consult has Georgia tied. Making Georgia competitive, again ... Trump was like +9 or 10 2 weeks ago...

 

If they get black folks out to vote she’ll carry GA.

 

And metro Atlanta is young. If Kamala energizes young women and minorities she could take Georgia.

 

Since the announcement, Harris has flipped Michigan and Virginia back to blue to RCP's map. Look for Wisconsin to flip next as the "pre-announcement" polls become weighted less. Silver has already flipped Wisconsin in his averages. Pennsylvania is stubbornly Trump, though, may be why she needs Shapiro.

 

Not sure that's enough reason by itself to pick Shapiro. Silver has an article indicating that VP picks create a very small "home state" advantage. seemed to show a 0.5 to 1% improvement in chances of winning.

 

Bloomberg has Harris +12 in Michigan in a poll released today. That has to be Arabs going hard for Harris. Interesting development, no less.

 

Considering that the margin in Pennsylvania in both 2016 (when Trump won the state) and 2020 (when Biden won) was around one percent that could be a real difference in the final electoral college outcome of the election. Said it before under our bizarre system in which the EC vote determines which candidate is elected to the presidency a very small margin in a swing state could determine the outcome of the election regardless of the total popular vote margin.

 

For the first time since March, Silver has the democrat polling ahead of Trump on his national averages chart, and Pennsylvania, the last domino Harris needs to fall, moved to within 0.2%.

 

Nate still has Trump in the lead for the electoral college though: 56.9% to 42.5% for Harris

 

It increased the chances of winning the election by 1% or less. Winning the state was a slightly higher chance. But the takeaway isn't "Get this <1% bump vs. nothing." The takeaway is "Does that bump in the VP candidate's home state outweigh other potential bumps with an alternative candidate?"

"Pick Shapiro to grab Pennsylvania" is a myopic lens that may not best identify which VP candidate has the most impact on winning. Although historically, VP's almost always have negligible overall impact, so up to a 1% increased chance of success may very well be the best to expect from any choice. Just pointing out that it's not a simple decision.

 

He had Trump near 80%, IIRC, before the switch. The difference in EC votes is Pennsylvania’s 19. Harris needs to flip that. Could also take the lead by flipping AZ’s 11, I think.

 

Harris has a path to win by more than Joe did in his landslide victory.

 

Kamala Harris Carves Open Huge Polling Lead Over Donald Trump (msn.com)

Harris +7 in a 5-way ... Harris taking more from Kennedy than Trump ... again...

 

Today’s update from Nate Silver just flipped Pennsylvania to Harris, making her the apparent favorite to win the EC at this point, as well as expanding on her lead in the popular vote average by another 0.5%.

I can’t see all his stats and analysis, just the free stuff.

Pretty good start for Kamala, especially figuring they haven’t seen their convention bump yet or whatever bump she gets from her VP pick, if any.

 

If you are running against Trump, I think you need to start in the lead. This is not because Trump is a great closer, but because he’s so unlikable that starting behind suggests a real failure in candidate selection. I do think at least part of Kamala’s early success is that she is a new and relatively unknown. I know I am happy to see someone other than Trump and Biden. However, this would also mean that her standing is volatile, as she will become much better known over the coming weeks. If she can come across simply as sane and moderate, she probably has a good shot.

 

Republicans want someone younger than Donald Trump as president: new poll

In a fresh polling blow for Donald Trump, a majority of Republican voters have said they would prefer a president who is younger than the 78-year-old former commander-in-chief.

In a YouGov poll conducted between July 25-29, 59 percent of Republicans surveyed said they would prefer a president under the age of 75. Trump celebrated his 78th birthday in June. Forty percent said they had no preference, and just two percent said they would prefer a president over the age of 75.

Democratic voters were particularly keen on a younger candidate, with 73 percent indicating they would prefer a president 64-years-old or below. Twenty-four percent had no preference.

YouGov said the poll was conducted online among 2,266 U.S. adult citizens, and the margin of error was approximately three percent.

A separate poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos last week found that 53 percent of U.S. adults nationwide (from a sample size of 1,241) agreed with the statement that Trump is too old to work in government, whilst 43 percent disagreed.

This latest poll could suggest the tables are turning on Trump, who regularly attacked his former rival, President Joe Biden, over his age. Biden is 81.