What trades have you made to back up no rate cuts? Your view is clearly the minority and I would love to short some mortgage backed securities in 2006 (in 2024 of course).
As a reminder, you predicted that the stock market would be 20,000 right now. It is currently above 40,000. That is not just a little miss. So why do you think you have this amazing ability to predict the market?
see post #23. 40,000, big deal. What was it in January 2021 and how much has it gone up in 3 1/2 years? You both ignored that Trump did better suffering through a covid year. What you do in the market is your business. Live long and prosper.
You are clueless and just saying stuff you want very badly to be true (but isn't). Trump and Biden are neck and neck in market gains at this point in their term.
70% 25 bpt cut in Sept based on the trend. Tech valuations have been lofty and running hard which is why we had the big sell off and partial rotation off the high fliers recently. That seems to be a signal that people are rotating to areas which will now respond positively to rate cuts.
That’s interesting, one would have thought Biden would be blowing away Trump’s gains based of what I see here posted.
Nothing but bad? Functionally 0 unemployment, stock market at all time highs, less inflation than the other G7 countries, GDP increasing at historical rates, etc. Where do you come up with this stuff?
Since you decided to go there. FTR many taxpayers got nice taxes cuts too, not just those evil corporations. Tax cuts aren’t “gifts” they allow people and companies to keep more of the money they earn, BTW all those cuts have still been going on under Biden so if you are suggesting that’s why Trump’s economy was what is was because of those cuts then the same should go for Biden’s. While your on it what was the Federal Budget under Trump pre Covid, with Covid and then under Biden.
Trump's first three years were identical in terms of economic gains as Obama's last six years. Remember, Trump promised 5% growth. And delivered about 2.6%, whereas Obama averaged 2.5%. COVID turned things on its head. And most people predicted a recession, which is not uncommon after a big inflationary period. But it looks like we're going to nail a soft landing and avoid the recession. That's impressive. And now, all indicators are pointing to a rate cut in September. Inflation is under 3 and unemployment is just over 4. And the markets are responding accordingly.
I read that it was 2.6, up from 2.5. Will have to confirm. Regardless it is still at least 25% above the target. The Fed is under intense pressure to cut, and I think they will unfortunately, bow to that pressure. If they do cut in 3Q, I’m afraid given all the other factors that we will see a resurgence in inflation by the end of 2Q 2025.
lol … it’s not 25% above target … it’s 0.5% above target…. It’s already expressed as a percent increase… Learn how math works when you get a chance….
Nonsense. The current Fed rate is 5.5% with inflation at 3%. The maximum Fed rate under Trump was 2.5% around the same time inflation hit 2.9% in 2018.
Federal Reserve Interactive Graph: Inflation, consumer prices for the United States (FPCPITOTLZGUSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org) You'll find that Trump's inflation peaked at 2.4% in 2018. The Fed response was to raise interest rates 7 times. Once back down below the 2.0% Fed target, the Fed cut 3 times. This is timely about what Bank of America thinks about a September rate cut. In few words, they agree with me on no cut in September: Why the Fed won't cut rates until December, according to Bank of America (msn.com) The Federal Reserve will wait until December to cut interest rates, Bank of America economists say. The forecast runs counter to consensus, with 90% of investors expecting a first cut in September. "We think the Fed can be patient," BofA wrote in new research. Depending on the data over the second half of 2024, there may or may not be a rate cut in December. In other inflation and rate threads, I'm on record as saying there will be inflation upticks in July and August that offset what happened when the executive branch released 1,000,000 gallons of gasoline on the summer driving market, net effect was to downtick the CPI. We're close to the end of July so it will only be 2 1/2 weeks before the July CPI is released.
It is hilarious how you think 1,000,000 gallons of gasoline affected pricing in such a substantial manner. We use 374 million gallons of gas....a day. And that is just in this country while pricing is global (if gas is more expensive elsewhere, a producer will send it there until prices equalize). But you are convinced a million gallons, enough to last for a whole 4 minutes, made some giant, observable effect on pricing.
CPI numbers don't lie. There was an observable effect in energy/gasoline. Don't take my word for it, look it up.
I'm suggesting that corporate gifts are exactly what they are. "Known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), the law has benefitted corporations and the wealthy while doing little or nothing for working families, according to a new analysis from the Economic Policy Institute and the Center for Popular Democracy. One of the largest tax overhauls in half a century, the Trump tax law “has failed to boost American workers’ wages or to deliver broad prosperity for low-income communities or communities of color,” the paper’s authors write. Among other findings, the new analysis suggests that the law: Has had no discernible impact on wages for working people; Has decisively failed to spur business investment; Has caused corporate tax revenues to plummet; Has caused corporate stock buybacks to surge; Has fueled income inequality and exacerbated racial wealth divides."
We already did this. You claimed the effect was only in the NE, and we provided data showing that the NE and the nation as a whole both moved the same amount.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Meanwhile, in the real world, pricing was affected by far more substantial changes in quantity supplied and quantity demanded.
