I was going to post that my first thought on this matchup is UGA versus FSU, in which case I would root for a meteor. However, since your comments on sarcasm, I’ll think I’ll refrain from posting that.
Harris will accept her nomination in 5 weeks to which there will be a bump in enthusiasm. Early voting starts in September for many states which plays in her favor
Agreed. My threads are better, lol. All kidding aside, I do wish you could somehow pin this thread under the actual pinned threads, but above all other threads. I’ll assume that’s not technically doable. That CNN poll showing Trump +3 is pretty accurate. CNN, for all their faults, has been nails on the polling in the past couple of cycles.
Two new poll releases today, 7/25, show Trump with a 7-point lead in the head-to-head and the all-candidates polling: Trump leads 50%-43%, no Harris bump (msn.com) Rasmussen and Emerson College.
Not exactly true, only Rasmussen (which is a known right bias poll, and banned from 538 averages) shows Trump +7… Emerson showed Harris making up a lot of ground in battle ground states, statically tied in Michigan, Penn, Wisconsin and Georgia. Biden was behind 9 points in Georgia ... Great news there.
I’m finding these series of poll posts funny. +7 both directions. I know polling has gotten better the last 8 years but the past 4 weeks have been insane on the political front so I wonder how long it will take to settle into a kind of equilibrium?
538 "bans" the bias polls reporting stuff like the +7s for either candidate ... here's what they have, a stark Before and After.... Then ... Now ... It's a whole new ballgame!
Seems like 538 is going to be favoring Harris when they turn their model back on, but I think they were showing an unreasonable bias to Biden, based on other factors they were considering, like the economy and demographics. Even Nate Silver called them out on it.
Noticed above Morning Consult polled over 11,000 people, and has Harris +1 with a 1% MOE. Also worth noting the polls with "more", which means they include Kennedy, are not hurting Harris like they hurt Biden. Trump is the one doing worse in those, adding +2 or +4 to Harris' margin in the NYT and Reuters polls that showed both sets of data.
Rich Baris is the most accurate pollster over the last 10 years. Per Robert Barnes who evidently Travis all of the polls or at last all Pfizer the major polls some polls Omar cover one state for example. So Barnes must be looking at the final polls of the pollsters and measuring the deviation from the Election Day results, trafalgar poll is outstanding. Patrick Basgam foes great work. I saw on Twitter a couple of hours ago where someone compared Trafalgar poll with . iPSOS. Trafalgar was off on average by 2,3%, UPSOS by roughly 5.5%. I cannot recall the exact iPSOS deviation but t.t percent is close. For what time frame I have no idea
