Will F$U and Clemson blow up the ACC? Things we know: Big10 and SEC don’t want them if the ACC stays intact. F$U and Clemson will not increase revenue per school for Big10 or SEC, at best it stays same if the ACC survives. They will have to pay exit fees and be submitted to lesser shares of revenue initially ala Oregon/Washington. If the ACC dissolves and all schools are up for grabs, then F$U, Clemson, UNC and UVA become the most attractive pieces up for grabs and then it’s a feeding frenzy between the Big10, SEC, and Big12. So can/will F$U and Clemson implode the entire ACC to create this feeding frenzy to get what they want? How implodable is the ACC? I’ve been around long enough to know the powers that be say one thing and do another. But once you call F$U “disruptive” and “not a good partner” you can’t take that back. I don’t see F$U settling for a lesser monetary amount than SEC/Big10 members.
I believe FSU and Clemson are on par with most of the programs in the Big-10 and SEC and probably deserving of a similar payday. Same for UNC. The issue is timing. Texas, OU, USC and UCLA got in under the wire of the SEC and Big-10 negotiating TV deals. UW and Oregon got in after the deal but there was enough value that the Big-10 schools agreed to give up a portion of their money to take them. The problem for FSU, Clemson and any of the other schools wanting into the SEC or Big-10 is that there's no reason for either conference to add ANYBODY until the next round of negotiations, several years down the road. There's no additional TV revenue because there are no more TV slots and the networks are strapped for money now. The only way either conference could take on more programs is if all the schools agreed to take less money. That's unlikely to happen. As stated above, the only way I believe the SEC or Big-10 even consider expansion if for Notre Dame because they bring a TV slot from NBC with them. Otherwise I believe nothing will happen until the next round of TV negotiations. At that time, I believe FSU, Clemson, UNC and others will likely be top candidates.
One problem for the B1G adding Clemson and FSU is they are geographic outliers for the conference. So were the LA schools. But with the PAC collapse, and schools being desperate, the B1G were able to get Oregon and UW at a bargain price of half price plus travel costs, which equals about a 2/3 share. Would the B1G want to make a similar deal to add Clem and FSU? And who would be the two schools who agree to a 2/3 share? FSU and Clemson would fit geographically with the SEC, but do these two schools really move the needle? Texas and OU did. Not sure FSU and Clem do, unless the SEC kicks out Vandy and one other and add top schools to replace them. But that's not happening. FSU and Clemson certainly move the needle for the BIG12. And with schools like C. Florida and W. Virginia, there is a geographical fit. Not great, but much better than the B1G. And the BIG12 would take Clem and FSU in a heartbeat. But not at the full buyout price. The rumor was the BIG12 would sell some of it's rights to corporate sponsors (Allstate), who would negotiate a lower buyout for top ACC schools, which would in turn, raise BIG12 payouts to north of $40 million per school. But this could take hundreds of millions to accomplish. It was a cool idea, but I just don't see how the numbers ever would work.
This is a really good question. I don't know the answer, but I would think the key issue is still the lack of available TV slots for additional revenue. But ABC/ESPN does own the ACC rights and those TV slots, so if they could COMPLETELY implode the ACC, ABC/ESPN could in theory put more SEC games in those slots, so there could be more revenue for the SEC (since ABC/ESPN has SEC rights I assume the SEC is in better position for this). The questions would be how many ACC teams would the SEC actually have to take to kill the ACC and would ABC/ESPN have the money available to pay the SEC enough to make it worth their while. I think that's all probably doubtful.
True except I believe that the LA schools were THE reason the PAC collapsed. If they didn't go, UW and OR would likely not have left either. Or if they joined the BiG then the LA schools would have jumped to thus taking down the PAC 12.
For the SEC it is not about school football success for the conference. It's about markets. Barring something crazy these two schools are not coming here.
I think the bigger issue, and the reason USC and UCLA left the Pac-12, was the conference's inability to get a TV deal.
USC always felt slighted in the PAC. They felt they were worth more than what the PAC schools were getting paid, and the PAC was never going to get enough to compete with the B1G and SEC. Probably true, but when OU and TX left to the SEC, four top remaining BIG12 schools reached out to the PAC and the rumor is the deal for a PAC16 was probably worth $45 to $50 million a school. But USC was already deep in negotiations with the B1G, and squashed the PAC adding any schools. The PAC crumbling as fast as it did was also a bit of a surprise. The B1G didn't want to add any more PAC schools right away. And the 10 PAC schools could have gotten the BIG12 $31million per school deal, but the PAC waffled, and the BIG12 jumped on it. Big mistake. I think the PAC could have gotten this deal, and then sold the PAC12 Network to a streaming service like Amazon, who needed help producing Thursday Night Football. A PAC12 Friday night game on Amazon, plus all Olympic sports on Amazon would have potentially added a few million more a year. But all the PAC could end up negotiating was a deal with Apple, worth $25million per school with elevator clauses if subscribers were added, and all the schools except Arizona state balked. Colorado jumped to the BIG12 first. Arizona quickly followed while the BIG scooped up OU and UW for a bargain, it Utah and ASU had no choice but to follow Colorado and Arizona. This BIG12 is now a conference of former G5 schools and a plus of football mostly also-rans. But it's a great basketball conference, and some school or two is going to emerge as a football power. Without OU and Texas, or USC and UW, there's too big a vacuum not for it to occur. Adding football powers like Clemson and FSU would fill the gap instantly, but the buyout is ridiculous, and the ACC looks like they aren't going to budge and let them go.
It's not really about markets anymore. "New markets" was THE big factor when the conferences (particularly the SEC) were setting up their TV networks and securing carriage, but that's kind of changing. Mastering carriage was is a huge reason the SEC is where it is now financially. They secured statewide carriage by taking the top state universities, which along with a great footprint got them statewide carriage in every SEC state. As I recall, the Big-10 took over a failing cable TV Network that already had carriage. Misunderstanding carriage is also a huge reason the ACC fell behind. They thought it was just about adding schools new markets like Boston, Pittsburgh and Syracuse. They incorrectly assumed they'd get carriage statewide in PA, NY and MA, along with all the other states they have teams in. They might have carriage for their network in NC and VA, but that's about it. I'm actually not sure they have carriage anywhere. They got in too late and the Big-10 and SEC had pretty much gobbled all the TV revenue. But now with the demise of cable TV, carriage isn't as much of a factor. Now it's about grabbing the programs with the biggest fan bases nationally ... which almost all already happen to be in the SEC or Big-10. To your point, both FSU and Clemson are blue bloods with huge fanbases that will eventually generate a lot of revenue for a conference. I think UNC as well. And of course Notre Dame. In my opinion, it's not if those schools will be in the SEC or Big-10, but when. I think it will probably come back up for conversation about 2-3 years before the next round of TV negotiations for the SEC and Big-10. Unfortunately, the Big-10's deal runs out 4 years before the SEC's, so they may be in a better position to take who they want. The bigger question in my mind is once you get past Notre Dame, UNC, FSU and Clemson, are there any other programs in the Big-12 or ACC that the SEC/Big-10 would take. I have a feeling the answer may be no.
Atlanta it is about markets. Markets mean money and more money. If the ACC implodes the SEC will go after UNC and UVA in a heartbeat. They get the North Carolina Virginia and D.C. markets. Sankey has made it clear he is not interested in the two clown schools. More markets mean more eyes and more money.
Markets don't mean what they used to, it’s about draw, regardless of where that draw comes from. When we added Mizzou and A&M markets mattered a lot because we were charging per cable box. So we could basically yell cha Ching on every cable box in those 2 states every month. With cord cutters now, it’s about what team gets them to tune in to your game via their app or online sub. And that will only accelerate over the next few years. Markets still matter for recruiting, publicity, merchandising etc, but overall they aren’t the primary driver anymore.
I completely agree that given the chance, UNC and Notre Dame would be MY personal first choice and UNC and UVA would be my second choice, but I think chances are pretty good that those 3 schools all envision the Big-10 as their first choice. And I'm not sure that UVA makes as much sense to the SEC without UNC. But I kind of disagree that markets make more money now. Most if not all the SEC football games are nationally televised now. They really aren't going to make more money with new markets. It's more about TV ratings now. I think FSU and Clemson have more football fans and would produce higher national ratings than UVA.
There’s only a select few teams outside the big or sec that bring viewers. Having the top six or so games for tv every week is where it’s at. Florida fsu will always get viewers . Most teams only have 3-4 games a year that are prime time games but I expect more schedules like ours in the future because viewers want great games. The more great games the better.
I don’t have the numbers, but I would suspect that the TV draw for UNC and UVA when basketball gets calculated in may exceed what F$U/Clemson bring in total. Those fans (UNC/UVA)tune in during fall and spring.
Well, if they become homeless they can always look for a conference near San Francisco to join. Free cleats and crack pipes, too.
At least we know where the rapist will be willing to warm the bench next on his never ending road to obscurity.
