War in Ukraine

I love your optimism, but I only see Z out felating Putin if every Ukranian city is renamed Trumpiv and every building paying licensing to the man.

No doubt he loves the adoration, but if he just wanted to appeal to the most Americans as possible - why the Vance pick?

 

Less about Z than the pulse of the American electorate. If they ultimately support Ukraine, so will he. The guy has no principals. Even the evil ones are up for grabs for the right price (be that money or popularity).

 

That situation is imminently correctable by methods the Russians are historically comfortable with. Ask yourself why Koenigsberg (what the Russians call “Kaliningrad Oblast”) does not constantly have to worry about 1.5M or more Poles and/or Germans fomenting insurrection.

 

I get your point - I just don't see enough american's caring for it to move the needle for Trump. Last I saw it was around 35% said we're doing too much / 35% saying we need to do more.

That's my point - there's no winning the "undying adulation prize" for him here - so he has to turn to who can do more for him - and my money would be on Putin.

 

IDK. That feels like a good tradeoff. If Ukraine truly wants to pivot to the EU and NATO, there are going to be tradeoffs (especially when considering the current lines). Easy for me to say as an American, but that seems like something they might have to accept if they truly want to break ties and move forward.

 

This is pretty much what got the aid package through. Even Johnson had to admit this. It was getting so bad that he (and even Trump) realized that something had to be done to at least stop the tide. However, this does not relieve Trump of the crime of promoting this thinking in the R party. You know, the ones some of us were counting on to be adults here. Instead, they somehow found their inner Chomsky and went full Code Pink. Seriously. Listen to some of the rhetoric from that camp. It's the exact same thing ("the hegomonhy", Mean NATO, Bad America, etc.) those commies have been spouting for decades.

 

russia needs the labor, they can leave.

 

Well, of course in public, Zelenskyy is going to say all of that. How else would he justify the war and requests for ammunition? But behind closed doors, he knows he will have to give something to attain peace with Russia. And it is well-documented he was ready to do that in March 2022.

Why else would Zelenskyy even meet with Trump? Both Trump and Vance have been pretty clear about their position that the war needs to end yesterday. Zelenskyy knows that means he's going to have to give up some land. Frankly, he's probably glad to at this point, because the areas of land Russia currently occupy were already fighting against Ukrainian forces before the "Special Military Operation" was launched in February 2022. These are largely ethnic Russian populated areas who were already resistant to centralization of power in Kyiv.

In other words, these areas will still be a thorn in Zelenskyy's side, even if Ukraine was to somehow miraculously remove Russia from these areas. Zelenskyy understands this, so he's not going to lose a lot of sleep if he has to sign them over to Russia. In exchange, I'm guessing Zelenskyy will get some very strong security guarantees from the U.S. that stop just short of NATO membership. I.e. Trump will tell Putin that he'll quadruple military aid to Kyiv if Russia breaks the peace.

Zelenskyy was stoked about the meeting with Trump. Based on what I'm picking up across various sources, this is what was discussed. He's stoked, because it's a win win for Zelenskyy. Ordinary Ukrainians are not going to give a flying F if Zelenskyy signs over Donetsk and Lugansk regions to Russia. These areas were already heavily pro-Russian areas which held too much sway in national politics over the central and western regions of Ukraine. Does that make sense?

 

Somewhat, and I think this is even more true with Crimea (strategic issues not withstanding). However, I think you are overstating a bit the amount of Russian support in the regions captured in 2022. The 2014 regions? Yes. Regions adjacent to those? Yes. But the closer you get to the Dniper, the more anti-Russian. Also, how many are pro-Russian now? That was the irony of 2014. Prior to that, Ukraine could swing either way politically. But, once he annexed all those pro-Russia votes, the rest was cast in stone. Thus, if he was going to do this, he should have just done it then rather than face planting into a puddle of his own vomit in 2022. Now, everyone west of the line hates the Russians in ways they never have before, which is saying something given the history.

 

Let's also not forget the mining. Millions? Do you really want that mess back?

 

Ima need a link for that number. That's exorbitant, and a quick googly search fails to bear that number out.

 

I’m not sure who you were referring to in 2014. I’m assuming Putin, as Zelenskyy was not the president of Ukraine at that time. Putin’s goal has been clear since long before 2014. It’s to keep Ukraine out of NATO. In times past, he could easily accomplish this by having a pro-Kremlin regime in Kyiv. Once the West stepped in and stoked the coup ousting Yanukovych from office, Putin surmised he had to take other measures to accomplish that goal.

The next easiest way for Putin to keep Ukraine out of NATO and combat the pro-Western coup in Kyiv was to invade and take away Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea. Without the Black Sea, Ukraine doesn’t have a cock and balls. Thus being of no interest to NATO for consideration.

 

Strategically Crimea offers deep water ports and lots of access to the Black Sea. Maybe, just maybe, Zelenskyy doesn’t care as much (his comments are contrary though) but I know most of Europe cares about Crimea.

 

Yea, but 2014 (which was brilliantly executed, IMO) insured that the rest would go totally to the EU and (if possible) NATO. That's the irony of it. After 2014, the die for the rest of Ukraine was cast (rabidly Anti-Russian) because he annexed away all the pro-Russian votes. I get what he did in 2014. If Ukraine is going rogue, they will do so without Crimea. I even agree with that to some extent. But 2022 was pointless, as we can all see. Sure, Ukraine isn't in NATO (yet), but Finland and Sweden are. Way to go there Vlady. And now you're literally spending your last generation of young men for a lost cause. So much winning it hurts.

 

Realistically, what are the odds of Ukraine getting that back? And keeping it, given the work they already have to do to rebuild the rest of the country? And at what cost? Do they even have the forces to do that? Would it be the best use of those forces?

Maybe you just stock up Odessa with long-range missiles and create a MAD scenario with regards to each other's shipping. IDK, but it seems about as realistic as them getting and keeping Crimea.

 

Another sampling of how all over the place the casualty numbers are:

In late June, independent Russian outlet Important Stories found “more than 71,000 Russian men died in the war” since February 2022. Based on figures compiled by the Russia’s State Statistics Service, the report also found that at least 45,000 Russian soldiers died in Ukraine in 2023 alone.

Earlier in June, an open-source investigation conducted by independent Russian media outlet Mediazona and the BBC’s Russian-language service confirmed the names of 64,000 Russian soldiers who had been killed since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The journalists who conducted the research suggested that the number of fatalities are likely at least twice as high.

On the second anniversary of the invasion, Mediazona and Meduza, another independent Russian media outlet, jointly published a study that found an estimated 83,000 Russian soldiers had been killed in Ukraine.

...

Last August, The New York Times quoted unnamed U.S. officials as saying that up to 120,000 Russian troops had been killed and 170,000 to 180,000 wounded, compared to nearly 70,000 Ukrainian troops killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.

...

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in February claimed that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the February 2022 invasion. He also said that he wouldn’t disclose the number of Ukrainian troops that were wounded or missing.

...

Russia suffers massive losses in Ukraine, but effect on Kremlin policy unclear​

 

It also sits like a Sword of Damocles over Odessa and the mouth of the Dnieper generally.

 

Russia has said no peace without Kharkiv and Kherson. Zelenskyy is not giving up either of those especially Kherson. Not to mention they want their nuclear plant back and dam fixed etc. what kind of settlement are they realistically going to get from trump working with Putin that they will be willing to accept?

 

If you truly respect Ukrainian sovereignty, it doesn't matter what Europe cares about. It's Zelenskyy's call. Attempting to force a war in a sovereign nation when they don't really want to is not the blood I want on my hands.