538’s model kicked off

Playing devil’s advocate here, but it’s a lot easier to rig a close election than one that has a larger than margin of error gap.

 

He / it rates every one of my posts and has for months. I am pretty sure it’s a bot.

 

It's also way easier to rig an election when your party is in power, like now, than when it wasn't, in 2020.

 

Shhh don't divulge any details!

 

All the details are readily available. The lid was blown off with the 2000 mules thread.

 

Ticked up another 1% today to give Biden a 54% chance of winning…. FWIW

 

I’m not saying it’s impossible, just will take a lot to get me to agree that he’s somehow “leading” the race.

 

Yes, Biden is leading. That’s why Schumer and Jeffries expressed grave concerns directly to Biden in the past week. Because that’s what you do when your guy is leading.

 

They've got a strong, super sharp, incumbent candidate that has one bad day and suddenly everyone wants to kick him to the curb...

 

Sorry if you haven’t decided you’re anti Trump by now likely you never will. More likely you just won’t vote.

 

Or … if you haven’t decided you are pro Trump yet, you never will. There are 15-20% undecided in the polls I see with Trump getting in the low 40s. I can buy the explaination that 538 may be seeing that most of the undecideds are democrats likely to back Biden in the end, if he stays in the race. a high percentage of democrat undecideds may be those who want Biden to drop out, but would never vote for Trump.

 

After reading this thread I went to RCP and looked at their polls. After doing so it's is impossible to see what 538 is basing their prediction on. It is not polling.

As I wrote earlier I get Nate Silver's newsletter. He ran 538 and his prediction model is similar to theirs. But he has Trump up big. He does not like Trump and has never predicted a Republican to win so bias is unlikely.

Unless something changes between now and then either 538 or Nate will lose credibility in November.

 

I think there are plenty of people in the 15-20% who aren’t partisan at all and can easily slide to Trump given Biden’s cognitive issues. Time will tell.

You can bet the Biden handlers will have all his appearances limited and tightly scripted and controlled from here on out. Any missteps will be magnified as we get closer to Nov 5th.

 

I thought Nate Silver = 538

When did that change?

 

Nah, they probably just see the same thing we all do that Biden is clearly mentally slipping and at his age clearly can’t handle the strenuous duties of being President.

To me (and many other voters I’m sure), voting Trump vs Biden is the trying to pick the lesser of two evils. I do know though that if Harris were the Democrats choice, I definitely vote for Trump as having a California liberal run our country is a really scary proposition.

 

I was wondering the same thing (article from May, 2023):

A Brutal Wonk Swap at FiveThirtyEight

(sourced from wiki)

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

it’s more like Biden is hanging on by a thread when he should be trouncing the convicted criminal insurrectionist dictator wanna be…

 

I also think the next simulation (tomorrow) will show Trump leading.

 

There is always a "convention bounce", but it usually doesn't take shape until new polling is in. I think Trump will probably take the lead in the few days and hold it until the Dem convention. If the Rumors of Biden exiting the campaign is true, I'm not sure how the polling continues until the successor is settled on.

 

I didn’t realize Nate had left 538. Interesting.