June, July, & August 2024 CPI & PPI not what Fed Reserve Needs for rate policy change

still want you to tell me how your gas went from $5.09 to $3.59..........

 

I'll just pull an AZCat, there were predictions starting back to last fall after the last rate increase when the trained experts predicted up to 7 rate cuts in 2024. AZ knows there have been predictions that changed when inflation didn't go as projected. He doesn't care to remember or look up.

I don't care enough to look up. You can question what I'm recalling all you want. I will say you can likely search history right here on this board starting right before and right after the Feds last rate increase. Have at it. Again, I don't care.

I predict again for the record, there will be no rate cuts in July or September.

 

You may be right, but the so-called expert analysts make predictions on top of what the Feds release. It seems like every time a Fed decision meeting comes up there are predictions there will be a rate cut. Even in this article, experts are quoted on rate reduction at .50 for a total of 1.50 cuts while the Fed releases up to .75, 3 cuts of .25. Just off this release alone by the Fed and combined with analyst predictions, the DJI blitzed through 37,000 and sits at 40,000 today with not one rate reduction, good employment, and solid GDP.

Today, you can find some analysts saying a cut in the July meeting. This one has a prediction for September:

September most likely date for a Fed cut but things can change, economist says | Watch (msn.com)

Based on the June CPI coming down on a large reduction in gasoline for 2 consecutive months, it is just as easy to see an uptick in inflation instead of breaking below 3.0% as the 1,000,000 million gallons of released gasoline has been sold and has already impacted gasoline pump prices.

I don't see rate cuts at all this year. If any, after the election in November or December and at .25 and presuming the CPI has fallen into the 2s for several consecutive months. If Trump wins the election, you can forget about rate cuts until inflation comes down to the 2.0% Fed target. The Fed raised rates 7 times on Trump, this may be why I have 7 on the brain as an old fart's fogged memory, to stamp out inflation under Trump that never got above 2.4%.

In the meantime, the stock market has priced itself for a future that didn't and isn't likely to happen on the original timeline. What now?

Realistically, not much has changed on inflation, employment, and GDP since this article dropped 8 months ago.

 

Well Dude, not in June, not in July, and likely not in September. Where to now hotshot IB student?

 

Preposterous is analysts making predictions of rate cuts at every Fed decision meeting while inflation is running at higher levels than the Fed's 2.0% target rate.

 

I'm surprised you can find the way to this message board. How did you do it? How did you get into the IB program? You don't show off smarts here.