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Voter Registrations in Florida & Pennsylvania

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by ETGator1, Apr 28, 2024.

  1. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    It’s looking like a Trump Christmas.
     
  2. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    and a Happy New Red State!
     
  3. GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

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    There is a basic fallacy in your thinking. Just because someone registers as a Republican doesn't mean they are going to vote for Trump. There are many educated Rs to whom morals mean something that will not. Not enough, sadly, but still a significant number.
     
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  4. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Unfortunately, for democrats, there are enough right-thinking and open-minded democrat voters who see Dictator Biden as the threat he is to the US Republic. Biden is evil and a habitual liar. Morals? Democrats as a group don't have any.

    Given the sizeable margin in Pennsylvania the democrats enjoyed over the republicans in the past, it's apparent that a lot of democrats vote republican.
     
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  5. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    I am actually a little surprised by Trump's large leads in states that went to Biden in 2020. There has been a 9 to 10 point swing if you compare polls from June 2020 to now. That gap will widen on Biden.
     
  6. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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    We all know that if Trump loses you will suddenly disappear
     
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  7. ursidman

    ursidman VIP Member

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    Bug Tussle NC
    When i lived in Collier County I registered as Republican in order to vote in local elections as they were all decided in the primaries. Loyalty to a party is weird to me.
     
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  8. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    [Trump can't lose as his loss will end the republic. QUOTE="G8tas, post: 16572213, member: 11969"]We all know that if Trump loses you will suddenly disappear[/QUOTE]
     
  9. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Not a resident of Florida but I think the rationale of a lot of newly registered Republicans is similar to that of yours. In a state with closed primaries and heavily gerrymandered districts both at the state legislative level as well as at the Congressional level the candidate who usually win the general election is the one who wins the Republican primary and the only way to have a say in the end result is to register as a Republican.
     
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  10. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Florida continues to march steadily to over 1 million more republicans than democrats by the 2024 elections:

    Voter Registration - By Party Affiliation - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State

    As of 12/31/2023:

    Republicans 5,141,848
    Democrats 4,362,147
    Difference 779,701

    As of May 31, 2024:

    Republicans 5,227,223
    Democrats 4,296,552
    Difference 930,671

    As of June 30, 2024:

    Republicans 5,257,407
    Democrats 4,300,964
    Difference 956,433

    Republican gain since January 1, 2024, 176,732, a 29,456 monthly average.

    Republican projected gain by October 31, 2024, 1,044,799.

    On the bright side for Florida democrats, registrations went up by +4.412, still -61,183 for January through June 2024.

    Republicans in Florida remain far more motivated than democrats. This does not bode well for democrats or the ballot initiative on abortion. I expect to see a lot on the abortion initiative before election day.
     
  11. HeyItsMe

    HeyItsMe GC Hall of Fame

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    Lol! The last two governers of this state have been Medicare fraud himself Rick Scott and Ron “Freedumb” Desantis. Florida sucks ass at picking anyone good to run this state and it would be much better off with someone on the left in charge. Statistically speaking, almost every impoverished state in the U.S. votes Republican, there’s a reason for that. The only reason FL is the exception to the rule is because of Disney, the weather, and lack of state income tax, which helps move people down here, and brings tons of tourism, nothing of which these morons running the state get credit for.
     
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  12. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Pennsylvania Voter Registration through July 8, 2024:

    Voting & Elections Resources | Department of State | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

    November 7, 2023
    Democrats 3,900,228
    Republicans 3,453,662
    Difference 446,566

    June 10, 2024
    Democrats 3,892,996
    Republicans 3,513,272
    Difference 379,928

    July 8, 2024
    Democrats 3,892,765
    Republicans 3,521,485
    Difference 371,280

    Republican gain from November 7, 2023 to July 8, 2024, 75,286, a 9,411 monthly average.

    Republican projected gain over the next 3 1/2 months, 32,938. This will reduce the democrat advantage to 338,342.

    Republican projected gain since November 7, 2023 through registrations closing 2 weeks before the November 5 election, 108,224.

    Voter Registration Observation: Taking a longer-term view, the registrations as of November 8, 2022:

    Democrats 4,046,694
    Republicans 3,497,126
    Difference 549,568

    Republican 1 year monthly average gain from November 8, 2022 to November 7, 2023, 8,584, as compared to 9,411 from November 7, 2023 to July 8, 2024.

    The democrat voter registration advantage over republicans has been steadily eroding from 549,568 to 371,280 and from November 8, 2022 to July 8, 2024. It is projected to further erode to 338,342 by the time registration closes 2 weeks before the November election, a drop of 211,226 over the 2 years from November 2022 to November 2024.

    The shift towards a republican majority hasn't been as pronounced as in Florida, but the numbers speak for themselves. Pennsylvania may have more republicans than democrats by the time the 2028 presidential election rolls around.
     
  13. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Poor sport. ;)
     
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  14. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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    Why is OP acting like Republicans are against the right to choose when that isn't the case for the majority? Also, why are you ignoring the fact that they are purging voter rolls?
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2024
  15. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Abortion isn't so easily decided as you have presented. Make a change to the state constitution which will allow the murder of babies up to and through the time of delivery ain't going to pass as it did in Ohio. Shame on the Ohio republican party and the poor excuse of a republican governor for not educating the citizens of Ohio better. That's my opinion and I'm sticking with it.

    I would be interested to see who is being purged and why. Please present the evidence. Thanks.
     
  16. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Voter Registration - By Party Affiliation - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State

    As of 12/31/2023:

    Republicans 5,141,848
    Democrats 4,362,147
    Difference 779,701

    As of May 31, 2024:

    Republicans 5,227,223
    Democrats 4,296,552
    Difference 930,671

    As of June 30, 2024:

    Republicans 5,257,407
    Democrats 4,300,964
    Difference 956,433

    As of July 31, 2024

    Republicans 5,324,654
    Democrats 4,327,859
    Difference 996,795

    Republican gain since January 1, 2024, 217,094.

    Republican projected gain through the October 7, 2024 registration deadline to vote in the national election, 1,065,955.

    Democrat registrations are pathetically down 34,288 since December 31, 2023.

    Republicans in Florida remain more motivated than democrats.

    The Free State of Florida is Deep Red.
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2024
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  17. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Pennsylvania Voter Registration through August 12, 2024:

    Voting & Elections Resources | Department of State | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

    November 7, 2023
    Democrats 3,900,228
    Republicans 3,453,662
    Difference 446,566

    June 10, 2024
    Democrats 3,892,996
    Republicans 3,513,272
    Difference 379,928

    July 8, 2024
    Democrats 3,892,765
    Republicans 3,521,485
    Difference 371,280

    August 12, 2024
    Democrats 3,901,732
    Republicans 3,545,635
    Difference 356,097

    Republican gain from November 7, 2023 to August 12, 2024, 90,469, a 10,052 monthly average.

    Republican projected gain over the next 2 1/2 months through registration deadline 2 weeks before the national election, 25,130. This will reduce the democrat advantage to 330,967.

    Voter Registration Observation: Taking a longer-term view, the registrations as of

    November 8, 2022:

    Democrats 4,046,694
    Republicans 3,497,126
    Difference 549,568

    Since the 2022 midterms and projected through the 2024 national election deadline, republicans will have reduced the difference from 549,568 to 330,967, a projected reduction of 218,601.

    The shift towards a republican majority hasn't been as pronounced as in Florida, but the numbers speak for themselves. Pennsylvania may have more republicans than democrats by the time the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential elections roll around.
     
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  18. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Republicans now outnumber democrats by over 1 million registered voters:

    Florida now counts 1 million more registered Republican voters than Democrats (msn.com)

    Over 1 million and growing. It would be great to hit 1.1 million before registrations close for the national election, but that might be a bit optimistic.

    I don't think either Florida constitutional amendments will pass in November. Republicans are up on what happened in Ohio on abortion with that lousy governor so there is that going on. I also don't see a groundswell of support for legalizing marijuana.

    WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — Florida has 1 million more Republican registered voters than Democrats, elections officials revealed, further cementing its status as a conservative hotbed.

    There are 5.3 million active Republican voters compared to 4.3 million active Democratic voters, according to figures released by county elections supervisors this weekend. About 3.9 million voters don’t affiliate with any political party or affiliate with minor parties.

    The state’s changing political landscape is unusual because of how quickly it became so conservative. In 2020, Democrats held about a 97,000 vote registration edge over Republicans. Since then, there has been a rapid increase in registered Republican voters.

    Having this large of a voter registration edge is a win for the Florida Republican Party, who touted the party as “the most successful party in the nation,” according to a statement from Evan Power, the Florida Republican Party chair.
     
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  19. mrhansduck

    mrhansduck GC Hall of Fame

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    It's very unlikely that Trump loses Florida IMO, but it will be a bad sign for him nationally if Republicans feel they have to spend time and money in a state where just a couple years ago, DeSantis won by almost 20 and Rubio won by almost 17.
     
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  20. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Dang, you'll have to forgive Trump for now living and spending time in Florida as a Floridian, transplanted but a Floridian.
     
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