538’s model kicked off

July 16 has Biden winning again.even with his Heisman moment and int he middle of the convention spiking the ball, djt is still losing..makes my heart warm with hope but still want Biden out

put a reasonable moderate in and they likely win FLorida and NC too..djt is jsut that bad

Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election Are Declining (msn.com)

Donald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls. FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

According to the tracker, Biden is favored to win in 534 out of 1,000 of FiveThirtyEight's simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win.
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It comes after a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump's margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina.

Trump previously defeated Biden in both states in 2020, while he held a six-point lead over Biden in Florida in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll from that June. However, he now only leads the current president by four points in Florida. The poll shows that 45 percent of participants plan to vote for Trump, compared to Biden's 41 percent.

It is not the only recent poll to give Trump only a four-point lead in Florida. A June Fox News survey gave Trump 50 percent of the vote, compared to 46 percent for Biden.

 

Amazing.

 

People are wising up to the real condition of the economy and considering if they want 4 more years of crazy ass Trump. I think it leans toward Biden but either could win.

 

Trump had the puncher’s chance in 2016 and he scored the KO. Biden doesn’t have a puncher’s chance. His own party is basically saying his punch is gone.

 

I’m dubious at best.

 

Is there a reason that you ignored 2020 and the red wave of 2022?

 

538 is broken … for example, it shows Biden with a slight edge in Pennsylvania, then when you click through on their polling, it looks like this… (I clipped off the top, but that is Pennsylvania specific polling)….



Biden has had some recent good polling in Wisconsin and Michigan, though

 

538 doesn't only use polls. They use other criteria as well. What is that criteria? I couldn't tell you

 

Yeah, I think they look at how bias certain polls have been in the past based on real results, then apply a “correction factor” … they have a ton of pollster rating data online. I think they are legitimate, just not seeing how Biden can be favored to win Penn unless most of the polls they are showing have a strong R bias, but I guess that is what they are showing. No one thought Biden could win Georgia in 2020, except some computer nerd pollster at The NY Times called it… so I guess it can happen…

 

Not that it means anything but the enthusiasm for Trump certainly has worn off a great bit. In 2016 and 2020 it was flags and bumper stickers everywhere. I still see a few but nothing like the past. And I maybe see one Biden paraphernalia a month.

 

It does seem a bit weird, but 538’s methods are pretty solid, so I’ll keep an open mind. And actually, my own intuition is also that this narrative that the race is already over is a bit premature. People just can’t seem maintain enthusiasm for anything for all that long. A few months is plenty of time to reset emotions. We’ll see.

 

538 weighs polls versus actual results. 538 also does an analysis of undecideds on how they eventually break. So it's not a complete surprise that 538 might have PA going to Biden again, especially if the average poll overestimated Trump by around 1%, and back in 2020, the undecided broke more for Biden.

In 2022, while most of the polls were within the margin of error, for the most part, Ds did a little better than expected than what the polls were saying. As of right now, polls show Trump up by 4% in Arizona. But in the 2022 Senatorial race, the polls had Masters up .3%, but Kelly won by about 5%. Throw in there are still about 8% of Arizona voters undecided, and it's why Arizona is still considered a toss up.

 

Gonna be a lot of eyeballs on the next debate - that's for sure.

 

Btw, Biden was going to have a tough time even before “the debate”.

 

Rep. Adam Schiff calls for Biden to drop out of 2024 election

 

The real polling is in the battleground states and Trump is leading by more than the margin of error in enough states to hit 270 electoral votes. Remember Trump can feasibly lose the national popular vote by more than 2% and still hit 270 electoral votes. The lead Trump has is too much for a senile candidate like Biden to overcome. If this was Obama vs. Trump, I would leery of a late surge by Obama. But Biden isn’t capable of producing that.

 

This is coming from the same guy that said that Herschel Walker would win because of polls

 

I'm still waiting for them to tell my why polls matter when Dems steal elections anyway.

 

Lol... the Gator40 troll is maybe a virus/AI... the dementia of negative reppers. Once you get it... it ain't getting any better for you.