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June, July, & August 2024 CPI & PPI not what Fed Reserve Needs for rate policy change

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by ETGator1, Jul 11, 2024.

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  1. Jul 11, 2024 #21
    exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    Yeah - I don't see cuts coming soon. Too high of a chance of heating things up and losing ground on inflation. Gonna need to see the labor market cool as well. IMO.
     
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  2. Jul 11, 2024 #22
    dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    Year over year core inflation dropped from 3.4% to 3.3%. Month over month core inflation increased by .1%, which is quite low. 12 months of .1% inflation per month would give us an inflation rate of a little over 1.2% for a whole year.
     
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  3. Jul 11, 2024 #23
    gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

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    Good news is really bad news.

    Oceana has always been at war with Eurasia. Eurasia has never been at war with Oceana.
     
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  4. Jul 11, 2024 #24
    mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Okay, what would a positive report have said?
     
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  5. Jul 11, 2024 #25
    OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    I read somewhere that the release of gas from the NE reserve was mandated by Congress in a bill passed last year. I don't think Biden had a choice in the matter. I don't believe Biden should be playing politics with the SPR, but in this case, it wasn't his choice.
     
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  6. Jul 11, 2024 #26
    ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    LOL! If this is accurate by a year from now, the Feds will have cut several times, maybe 2 or 3 times. You counting on those chickens to hatch? What happens when gas goes back up after being temporarily brought down by flooding the NE with gas over the last 2 months?
     
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  7. Jul 11, 2024 #27
    gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    OP had this post dialed in with anticipation of doom and gloom, but alas . . . reality struck, so OP had to go all . . .
    [​IMG]m
     
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  8. Jul 11, 2024 #28
    ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Why did congress meddle in a NE gasoline reserve set up for emergencies after the last NE hurricane? When and why did congress pass a law that this had to be done and on the timetable that it is being done by Biden? Why now in the summer before an election? I'm having a hard time believing that this had to be done in the here and now. It's just too political.
     
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  9. Jul 11, 2024 #29
    citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    You are glitching. Congress shut down the northeast gas reserve with a bipartisan bill. You are confusing with the SPR.
     
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  10. Jul 11, 2024 #30
    citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    It was.

    US to close Northeast gasoline reserve with 1 million-barrel sale - https://www.reuters.com/business/en... May 21 (Reuters),the near decade-old reserve.
     
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  11. Jul 11, 2024 #31
    OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    Biden admin sells gasoline from Northeast federal reserve

    "The sale fulfills a congressional mandate and aims to cut prices at the pump before the July Fourth holiday."
     
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  12. Jul 11, 2024 #32
    OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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  13. Jul 11, 2024 #33
    dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    No, I don't expect inflation to be 1.2% over the next year. I'm just pointing out that you don't know what you are talking about. You said 'minus food and energy, inflation ticked up by .1%'. That is false. Year-over-year core inflation dropped from 3.4 to 3.3%. Month-over-month core inflation dropped from 0.2% in May to 0.1% in June.
     
  14. Jul 11, 2024 #34
    mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    It is funny that he couldn't answer what a good report would be. That is the tell.
     
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  15. Jul 11, 2024 #35
    sierragator

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    " Trump wins election"
     
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  16. Jul 11, 2024 #36
    AzCatFan

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    A good report would be Trump is crowned King and magically turns the clock back to 2017!
     
  17. Jul 11, 2024 #37
    philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    This release wasn't from the SPR, which increased by 2.5 million barrels over the last month. This was a Storm Sandy reserve, which Congress mandated be liquidated. So it was liquidated. 1 million barrels released from that reserve, while 2.5 million barrels were added to the SPR. A net of 1.5 million barrel increase in reserves over the last month. But some people want to convince you that gas prices went down because the president drained our reserves to score political points.
     
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  18. Jul 11, 2024 #38
    BigCypressGator1981

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    I don't think they lower rates this year but its a positive report on inflation. Trending in the right direction. Good lord some are so consumed with tribalism its absurd.
     
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  19. Jul 11, 2024 #39
    HeyItsMe

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    Translation: You’ve got nothing.
     
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  20. Jul 11, 2024 #40
    ETGator1

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    Thanks. Hopefully, the carrot included the stick as well:

    US considers selling Northeast gasoline reserve in 2024 in draft bill | Reuters

    The dems had been selling oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to China. Tell me the gutless without Trump republicans insisted on including in the law that China can no longer be sold oil from the SPR. I'll be shocked if the republicans suddenly grew a spine to do the right thing with the lousy house and senate leadership.

    Regardless, the reason for the slightly improved CPI is the -3.6% and -3.8% gasoline price reductions in the May and June CPI. It's only in the NE to boot. As I said in the Personal Inflation Alert thread, gas prices here in the Florida Panhandle are up .10 Cents from before Independence Day to after the Independence Day weekend.

    If Biden had been smart about this release instead of political shopping for votes, he could have timed the release a bit later to help keep social security colas down. I think an average of an inflation measure for September and October are used to set the cola for 2025 so Biden could have saved the treasury a lot of money in 2025. Buying votes in an election year was more important than saving money for the treasury regardless of the congressional mandate.
     
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