His post was an honor. I truly mean that. I don't think I was doing anything special. Simply repeating what tons of economists had been predicting during that time. I wouldn't even call it rocket science. The economy has always been cyclical. I think the only reason it hasn't fallen into a full-blown recession is due to all the stimulus from the Central Bank and government. Maybe that was the plan all along, but the inflation has caused a lot of pain and we will have to pay back that stimulus money plus interest. It really bothers me that we don't think more long term. It seems like the Fed Reserve is always reacting and fiscal responsibility is viewed as unnecessary. I just don't think that's a solid long-term strategy. But we live in the era of instant gratification and our leaders are not immune. After all, they are beholden to the people.
After walking through your graveyard of bad takes you double down with another. Stimulus isnt driving inflation. It’s all supply. Housing supply is constrained, energy supply is manipulated by OPEC, and pockets of the food chain are constantly rattled by weather and disease. Everything else is now stable. Stimulus? H i l a r i o u s.
The economic argument that enough people need to be struggling and out of work for those who have jobs to enjoy a reasonable value for their work is ridiculous. I reject that premise as simplistically stupid. Paying a few cents more for stuff so people can have jobs doesnt sound unreasonable but yet the economic blowhards praise more unemployment as good, to your point, which just happens to align with right wing hopes for political points.
Agree on the cause of the uptick. It's likely summertime workers are having a more difficult time finding jobs. If this is correct, the rate could just as easily tick down in September as summertime workers go back to what they do not in summer. I'd liken it to holiday hires temporarily dropping the jobless rate during the Christmas holiday season. Cut rates? No, I do not think so. It's inflation that is holding the Fed back, not incremental unemployment changes. The Fed wants to see a string of months with inflation heading down before they come off of their current rates. Even then, it likely won't be much of a move. No way is the US going back down to zero or even close to zero interest rates without a major break in the US economy. Recession? No, I do not think so. The US economy may be as close to a soft landing as we are going to get.
Fun Fact: Since January 1948, Trump and Biden are the only presidents to not suffer inflation above 5.0% when you take out the consequences of fighting off the worst pandemic since 1918: Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org) What happened when some GOP-led states cut the $300 unemployment benefit | PBS News Unemployment at 5.0% has historically been considered a good rate.
"As crazy as it sounds, this is the highest UE has been since October of 2021." Nearly 3 years with the unemployment rate at 4% or less!!!
Did you say that when Trump was in office, falsely claiming his economy was the best in the history of the world? Of course not.
< 5% is considered full employment, so no problem here. I remember a few years ago when it was 14.8% and we had to ration toilet paper.
I bet it's hacked numbers. If I was a hacking network today, I'd target the data like this report. Make it seem like things are great when they aren't. I would say things are not great right now. IT jobs are fine but very competitive - employers can dictate what they want and it's why work from home is all but dead. Restaurant work is still there if you want it but the stress is 3 times higher than before the Pandemic due to restaurants hiring fewer people due to the costs of paying people. Almost every local restaurant in my area is short handed and many aren't hiring full staff due to having already paid people 200% since the Pandemic.
Funner Fact: Biden is the only president to not have Unemployment over 5% since 1948 … period … (unless you arbitrarily include other presidents by making excuses for them … Obama can also be included in the list if you exclude the housing collapse, economic crisis, and stock market collapse that started under Bush, for example.)
