Fed Chair Jerome Powell says inflation will be in the low to mid 2s in a year: Fed Chair Powell: Inflation rate will be in the mid-to-low 2s a year from now (msn.com) Time will tell if correct. However, those still holding out for rate cuts in 2024 shouldn't be holding their breath. In the low to mid 2s, the fed raised rates 7 times on Trump before inflation trended back below the Fed's 2.0% target. Once below the fed target, the fed followed up with 3 rate cuts. There is a strong group of board governors who want to wait and see what is going to happen with their stance that they will support increases if necessary or sit and wait until what Powell says above actually happens. There could be rate cuts if the inflation reduction to 2.0% looks like a lock to happen as the fed wouldn't want to be too restrictive in the perceived event of reaching the fed target goal.
I would be interested to see the comparison of the 50 year average to the 50 year average minus the Volcker years and the lowest years to see how how the average looks without the extremes.
Inflation was spectacularly high and it took spectacularly high interest rates to kill it. Why would you want to modify history by taking out the Volcker years?
Why “wonder”? Charts are available. Anyone can see the charts and look where the fed has had rates going back to 1951 (which I guess was when they resumed “control” over rates). Federal Funds Effective Rate
5% int rate, 4% UE seems pretty perfect….if the economy starts to go south we’ve plenty of cushion to boost it.
Actually, that goes back to June 1954, 70 years. docspor says there is a 50-year average rate but didn't provide a link. I'd like to see the 70-year average rate. Can you provide a links for both as I can find neither the 50-year average nor the 70-year average?
5% int rate. 4% UE. 3.2% inflation. Basically a Goldilocks economy in 2024, other than 1st time homebuyers and housing affordability perhaps (and that’s a biggun’ for sure).
int rates from 1971 - 2024 averaged 5.42%. I bet googles ai will give it to you for any period you want
i just googled it & got this The average interest rate in the United States from 1971 to 2024 was 5.42%. The federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks and credit unions lend reserve balances to each other overnight, has seen a range of highs and lows over the years: All-time high: 20% in March 1980 Record low: 0.25% in December 2008
While 5% in many ways isn’t bad, it is bad when you have govt debt to GDP over 100% and projections it will continue to climb.
Disagree, more like 7-10% is preferred. It's good historically at 4-5% because we are at a deficit every year that keeps growing and keeps devaluing the dollar. Great if your rich, not so great for the middle class and poor. Only way to fix that is to make borrowing so painful for congress, they stop doing so.
