Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!
  1. Hi there... Can you please quickly check to make sure your email address is up to date here? Just in case we need to reach out to you or you lose your password. Muchero thanks!

US Home Prices Set Record New High

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by ETGator1, May 28, 2024.

  1. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    12,081
    2,631
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    Listen and learn. In 2020 Q2 DURING COVID the federal government suspended in person interviews and data collection. If you look at the tables below you will see the percent of homeownership of in person interviews is much lower than phone interviews. The simple weighting of the interviews toward phone interviews made it look like home ownership went up. No one considers that good data like no one considers the giant spike in wages because all the low wage people were laid off.

    IMG_0860.png

    When the response rate of in person returned to more normal the next quarter they plummeted when they got back to more normalized data collection. People didn’t buy homes and sell them in record numbers as you can see in the purchases… they simply had bad data.

    • During the first quarter of 2020, the monthly response rates were 82 percent in January, 83 percent in February, and 73 percent in March. During March, the suspensions started, which explains the significantly lower rate in this month as well. The table below shows some more detail. The month in sample is a result of the way the data is collected from sampled housing units - which is for a total of 8 months.
      [​IMG]
    Link to the information the government spoon fed to you so you dont look silly.

    https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/qtr220/impact_coronavirus_20q2.pdf
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
    • Funny Funny x 1
  2. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    12,081
    2,631
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    See post #81
     
  3. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

    13,052
    1,745
    3,268
    Jan 6, 2009
    For most people that is typically the same time.
     
  4. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

    13,052
    1,745
    3,268
    Jan 6, 2009
    The federal reserve is a generator of Democratic Party propaganda?
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  5. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

    21,538
    1,806
    1,763
    Apr 8, 2007
    There's a rather simply reason why home prices have gone through the roof. It's because buyers are willing to pay those prices and this is one of those reasons:
    44% of flipped single-family home purchases were by private investors in 2023 i.e investors and specifically private equity funds paying all cash have been bidding up the price of homes.

    That being said the combination of record high home prices, declining sales of existing homes and an increased inventory of unsold homes seems to be indicative of bubble that's about to burst. While nowhere near the situation of 2008 it wouldn't surprise me if we see a significant decline in the price of homes over the next several months.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Disagree Bacon! Disagree Bacon! x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  6. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

    11,941
    1,172
    698
    Sep 5, 2010
    East Coast of FL
    Those trying to buy for the first time are as happy about this as you..
     
  7. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

    11,941
    1,172
    698
    Sep 5, 2010
    East Coast of FL
    Obama?

    Due in large part to the mortgage meltdown.
     
  8. insuragator

    insuragator VIP Member

    18,678
    552
    643
    Apr 3, 2007
    REALTORS!
     
  9. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

    8,959
    882
    2,843
    Apr 16, 2007
    Nope. Housing prices had recovered from the Great Recession by Obama’s first term.

    Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States

    Housing starts/construction never fully got back on track, which is the undersupply we are dealing with now. The pandemic and rapid recovery really put that into view. Hard to believe based on local anecdotes as it seems the major builders are pushing bigger and more ambitious projects, but I guess it’s not enough nationally (and of course some of the desirable areas are just land constrained, land is either hella expensive or undevelopable).
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  10. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

    16,027
    1,863
    808
    Apr 3, 2007
    BS and a dodge. Trump raised homeownership by 1.6% while Biden has had zero increase, flatlined and likely to go down in Q2 2024.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    12,081
    2,631
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    Just take the loss and move on. You’re out of you depths on here.
     
  12. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

    16,027
    1,863
    808
    Apr 3, 2007
    LOL! You get beaten like a drum and still you are smug and obnoxious.

    Get used to it as democratic party policies are going down in flames in a big way with the American people.
     
    • Winner Winner x 1
    • Come On Man Come On Man x 1
  13. SotaGator

    SotaGator Senior

    259
    75
    1,783
    Apr 4, 2014
    In my area, we have an explosion of sfh teardowns, brought on by influxes of highly capitalized buyers / investors from elsewhere. We're seeing 3br2b homes valued under $400k be demolished and replaced by $1.5m+ homes. Never thought I'd see a 50-year old concrete block home be worth $300 per sf.
    Net results: reducing supply of affordable homes for families and young people, pushing all home values to unreasonable levels, and causing worker shortages due to lack of housing (among many other effects to environment and quality of life.)
    Don't see how that will change anytime soon here.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  14. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    12,081
    2,631
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    I dont run the Democratic Party. I do run my debate line on here and your ridiculousness was sufficiently sent into the corner with a funny pointy hat. You can’t even follow notes in surveys that are easily laid out so that you dont make a fool of yourself. You dont seem to mind though.
     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2024
  15. murphree_hall

    murphree_hall VIP Member

    9,222
    4,610
    2,898
    Jul 11, 2019
    Well, this post helps me understand your motivation for the positions you are taking in these housing discussions. The bubble has a lot of homeowners feeling euphoric every time they look at their house’s Zestimate.

    There are plenty of cash flush individuals whose money isn’t tied to their home value that may very well end up owning the houses that the home equity superstars are currently living in… at a discount.

    Supply is rising, and demand is cooled. Prices, however, have not significantly dropped. This is a resilient market. That’s why I’m hesitant to predict a crash or major correction. The signs and signals are all there, but I don’t think the market works rationally. It would take a seller FOMO event to initiate any significant change.
     
  16. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

    16,027
    1,863
    808
    Apr 3, 2007
    You don't mind being wrong. Why can't you admit Trump has done better than Biden with homeownership rates? Trump did far better than Obama too. I'll lay the facts out so simply that even you can understand:

    Biden Q1 2021 through Q1 2024:

    Homeownership Rate in the United States (RHORUSQ156N) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

    Biden started at 65.6 and through Q1 2024 is 65.6. Since you don't understand simple math, that is zero growth, 0.00% in the homeownership rate. Worse for Biden, he'll likely go negative after Q2 2024.

    Trump Q1 2017 through Q4 2020:

    Homeownership Rate in the United States (RHORUSQ156N) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

    Trump started with 63.6 and ended with 65.8, an increase of +2.20% over 4 years. Before you say that includes covid spending and we can only count through Q1 2020, that is not accurate. Trump counts 4 years as the homeownership rates came off the covid highs and ended very close to where Trump would have been without covid. It's easy to see a connection line across 4 years leaving out the temporary covid blip.

    To be fair, Biden shouldn't count the 3 quarters of 66.0 as it was bought with fiscal overspending even though the Biden Administration was warned the spending would be inflationary by past Obama advisers, republicans, and the Federal Reserve.

    Obama Q1 2009 through Q4 2016:

    Homeownership Rate in the United States (RHORUSQ156N) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

    Obama started with 67.3% and ended with 63.7%, a decrease of -3.60% over 8 years. I'm sure you'll find an excuse for Obama, but facts are facts.

    Going on 16 years, the president that has done the best job with the homeownership rate is Trump.

    BTW, your lack of debate line sucks.
     
  17. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

    21,538
    1,806
    1,763
    Apr 8, 2007
    And home ownership in the US peaked under President George W. Bush before the bubble burst and by the way it's actually higher now than it was under Trump.
    upload_2024-6-23_11-5-16.jpeg
    Source:National Association of Home Builders
     
  18. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

    16,027
    1,863
    808
    Apr 3, 2007
    See post #96 immediately above. Trump is higher and showed improvement across his 4 years.

    Poor Obama, he was too busy weaponizing the IRS and Lois Lerner to attack the Tea Party to give a shiite about homeownership over his entire 8 years. Biden learned from the best divider in chief with Biden taking the attacks to soviet style new highs while threatening the US Republic. The housing bubble burst in 2007 followed by the Great Recession which did not last for anything close to 9+ years. Obama didn't take office until Q1 2009. Exactly what did Obama do on behalf of the American people as homeownership dropped -3.60% under his 8-year watch?
     
  19. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    12,081
    2,631
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    Housing inventories are rising to normal levels correct? And that is because of the high prices. If prices dropped wouldn’t inventories fall again? Thus prices rise again?

    Doesn’t seem like a bubble but more of a supply issue with people trying to maximize their profit testing the upper ends of pricing until the consumer says no. Just a guess.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  20. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    12,081
    2,631
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    I get you are just trolling. Enjoy. If you’re embarrassed about missing the polling error in Q2 2020 don’t be. We can’t think less of your arguments.