My guess is it comes down to MI, WI and PA. Biden can lose GA, Az and NV (and my guess is he probably will). Trump has to win OH, and likely will and Biden has to win VA, and likely will. If Biden were to pull off OH or FL due to abortion vote it’s game over. I don’t think that happens but never say never.
Polls right now only show which candidate, if any, has momentum. Right now, the momentum edge is slightly in Biden's favor. But we still have a long way to go, including debates and both conventions. Too early to call any swing state. And latest 535 has Trump +2.7 in Arizona right now, which is within the margin of error. But UT also has Kennedy with over 9%, and over 9% undecided. I don't see Kennedy getting this high a percentage. And with undecideds, incumbents usually do better, unless things are an absolute dumpster fire. And no matter how dystopian Trump likes to paint current conditions, we're far from dumpster fire territory.
I actually think there’s a good chance Biden wins more comfortably this go around than the first time. I think once this becomes a truly binary decision people will be motivated to vote against Trump in record numbers similar to 2020. Could be wrong. We shall see.
Polling has gotten much more difficult. How do you get a representative sample. No one will answer their phones or doors to anyone holding a clipboard.
I just put my wager in at +175 odds for Biden to win. I'm locking in a profit against my wager with a friend on Trump. Betting sites don't give Joe much hope.
And if you wanted to take part in a poll push polls outnumber “real polls” probably at least 10 to one.
That will be easy money for you. The longer the process goes on and more info gets out, the more and more enough people will see how unhinged Trump and his cronies are. It will be a “close” race but Biden will win fairly comfortably, IMO.
Fox has a big, breaking story: despite the polls, Huckabee Sanders predicts Trump will win! Trump will 'crush' Biden in November despite president's polling gain, Gov. Huckabee Sanders predicts
Reminds me of these predictions from 2012 Peggy Noonan Predicts A Romney Victory In The Most Anti-Nate Silver Column Imaginable Ohio gov. predicts Romney win as auto politics dominate
I am hearing a recent statistic suggesting older American voters represent a significantly higher % of the voting public than any other demographic. I fall into this category myself.
Not at all. Uncle Sam and Corporate America have access to 100x more money, manpower, and resources than any civilian population. If they want to find out your favorite color (e.g. red, blue, yellow, orange, etc), they can do so within an hour; if they really desire such and want to push things that far.
The Fox News division is untrustworthy. Having Paul Ryan as a negative force on their board discounts them as a fair and balanced news organization. Ryan has already disclosed he will not vote for Trump. From The Hill link: “Fox News polls have never treated me, or MAGA, fairly! Don’t worry, we will WIN!!!” he added. “Fox News should get rid of Paul Ryan, and get a new Pollster, but they won’t….” Wednesday’s poll marks the first time Biden has cracked 50 percent support this election cycle, and the first time he has led Trump in a Fox poll since October. Anybody can present anything they want, but I have found this site to be pretty good: 2024 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin National on 6/20: Biden 45 Trump 44 so 1 less than Fox News. However, Biden won the popular vote by 4.45% over Trump in the 2020 election. Final popular vote: Biden 81,268,924/Trump 74,216,154. With the national poll this close, it is advantage Trump. If you look deeper at the 5-way race, it's 41.6% Biden & 41.0% Trump, a .6% difference. National 2024 Presidential Election Polls - 270toWin States of Interest: Arizona: Trump +4.6 on 6/21 - +5.80 in the 5-way Georgia: Trump: +4.0 on 6/20 - +5.60 in the 5-way Michigan: Trump +1.0 on 6/20 - +1.20 in the 5-way Minnesota: Biden +2.0 on 6/20 - +1.50 in the 5-way Nevada: Trump +5.0 on 6/20 - +5.40 in the 5-way Pennsylvania: Trump +2.2 on 6/20 - +1.80 in the 5-way Wisconsin: Trump +1.0 on 6/20 - +.70 in the 5-way North Carolina: Trump +4.8 on 6/17 - +7.80 in the 5-way Virginia: Two-way tied at 43.67% on 6/13 - Too few for 5-way
So in your eyes "fair and balanced" means everyone must be a Trump supporter and voter or am I misinterpreting? This couldn't sum up Trump's lack of reciprocal loyalty any better. All they've done is act as an arm of his campaign for the past 8 years, but they publish one poll, over which they have no control of the outcome (if polling fairly) and he says they've "never" treated him fairly. What a petty little narcissistic goober.
Rasmussen who has been reliable over the last 2 presidential cycles says Trump has an insurmountable lead: Latest Poll: Biden vs Trump 2024 (Major Trump COMEBACK) - YouTube Trump 49% Biden 40% Other: 7% Unsure: 4% In a multi-way ballot, Trump leads by 10% with RFK, Jr. getting 9%. Trump is close to 20 points better than in 2020 while Biden is down 10 points from 2020. Around the 7:15 mark, Rasmussen addresses the corrupt Fox News Poll. Rasmussen as a matter-of-fact states Trump leads rural voters by +21 as compared to Fox News having rural voters at Biden +2. That's a big swing and a bad claim by Fox News. Rasmussen says the polls are likely to tighten up later when people become more focused on the election, but democrats are in a bad position and Trump is going to win the election.
