538’s model kicked off

scary and disheartening that there is even a chance that djt could be elected potus. it exposes a serious flaw in our system

 

Respectfully, I disagree with each of the points you made. I could be, and hope, I am wrong. But IMO all the evidence points otherwise.

We, as a country, not only have demonstrated we are that stupid. We've shown a willingness to accept treasonous behavior from literally the highest elected figure in our land, criminality from the same, and foreign tampering in our elections. And we strangely hold the current president to rational standards in the face of this.

This is not to find fault with the quoted poster here, but for the life of me I cannot understand how more people are not WAY beyond astounded by this and WAY beyond enraged. We will deserve the results of this election.

 

Semi agree; he wins on those issues in the minds of ignorant Americans. But clearly not on reality, as in the results that he delivered.

 

It's not that you're wrong. But it's pretty close to impossible to educate stupid people.

And you're right about needing to make a case. But how do you make a case to people who are too ignorant to even understand the economic metrics? Or the causes of inflation. Or the realities of illegal immigration. Or, for God's sake, even to understand the actions of the administration that they think is better on those issues.

Not to dismiss trying, but there's no educating such people. We are doomed. And we will deserve it.

 

Well clearly we are a pretty dumb country, given we elected Trump once and may well elect him again. I just think when push comes to shove, a lot of people are going to have second thoughts. If you haven't been paying a lot of attention, it's pretty easy to say 'Trump' to a pollster right now, but actually voting for him in 5 months, after months of ads showing him talking about things like getting electrocuted by a battery or eaten by a shark, is a different story. And the economy is trending in Biden's direction too. We'll see what the inflation number is tomorrow.

 

DJT shouldn't win on anything. think of the idiots that he will be surrounded with. as bad or worse than him. nobody with any shred of credibility is willing to work with him and his loyalty provision. nobody to keep him in check this time as all adults will have left the room. it would be an unmitigated disaster of court cases of people unwilling to kiss the ring being dismissed and replaced

 

Let’s talk methodology instead

How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works

thought the post convention weighting was interesting.
The states influencing other states by region was also interesting. How do you feel about the 10 regions?

 

This country is plenty stupid. Churchill said something along the lines of "The Americans will always do the right thing after exhausting all other possibilities."

 

I see this take plenty on the board and don't get it. I guess it depends on how you define "we." We the educated deserve better than either choice. Anyone below voting age deserves better than a second Trump term or even a second Biden. Even taken on the whole, doesn't the U.S. citizenry deserve better? It's not the voting citizens' fault that the electoral system is flawed and that the media blasts them with misinformation.

 

Well said.

 

Speaking only for my own opinion, I mean "we" as a country. Since our country elects a POTUS according to the EC, we elected Trump. And should we do so again, the collective "we" will deserve the results.

Btw, I can't let your post go by without asserting another opinion; Biden isn't really bad. Aside from being too old and gaffe-prone, is he really very different from, say, Clinton or Obama? Or Bush II, really? Yes, I just wrote off two flaws, but that's why I gave him a rating of "not bad." He seems to have good judgement, and let's people do their jobs. I think moderate people do our country a great disservice when they enable this narrative that Biden is terrible, which allows a false equivalency in many people's minds to a literal criminal traitor.

Also, does the media really "blast people with misinformation" ? Who, CNN? WashPost? NYTimes? Fake righty stuff, yeah, for sure. But the real media?

 

Thanks for your response. I have a hard time believing that we, as a country, deserve Trump x2 (let alone the first abomination). There are far too many reasonable people who see through his BS to just say "we deserve" the result. I don't disagree with you re: Biden. He's just too damn old. I don't agree about the moderates doing a disservice by dissing Biden (and I didn't claimed he was terrible). There should be a much better option.
To your last point, yes. The media (I'm defining it holistically) indeed blast people with misinformation. You're probably correct that there is a "real media," but the truth is that many absorb the less-than-real media.

 

Roughly half our country is willing to excited to vote as POTUS a convicted felon who led an attack on our government, a criminal conspiracy to overturn an election, a criminal conspiracy to steal and hide classified documents, who accepted help from Russia to win an election, who coerced allies and election officials.........and who has a corrupt legal system composed of judges that HE APPOINTED running interference for him.

And the rest of us are either too unwilling to speak out forcefully against both that and against people willing to enable it or who are willing to vote for a former political party, now criminal organization, that enables these crimes, while telling themselves that they are not voting for him.

It's traitorous, un-American obscenity of historic proportions. And all we do (maybe can do?) is sit and watch. We're already sunk. And we deserve it. Grab some popcorn, I guess.

 

I guess there's a lot of people like me out there. People who would prefer Biden drop out, but who will absolutely vote for him if he is the nominee against Trump.

 

I get Nate Silver's newsletter. He had Trump with a 60% chance before the debacle and now has him at 70%. He does not like Trump, does not want him to win and has never predicted a Republican victory.
If the Democrats want some encouragement that was almost exactly Hillary's chances in '16. Also, it's a long way to November. But he's been the gold standard for Presidential elections.