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Crime Rates all Decrease

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by mdgator05, Jun 10, 2024.

  1. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Big decrease in first quarter crime. As a reminder, violent crime rates were mostly down substantially last year as well.

    Or, if you want to discount the FBI data, here is the updated data from Jeff Asher (who consults with police departments around the country):

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/us/us-violent-crime-rates-statistics/index.html
     
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  2. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    • I don’t trust the government
    • FBI changed the way it counts crime
    • There is too much crime so people don’t even report it anymore
    • Liberals made everything legal or don’t even arrest people anymore
    • Here is some random crime that proves crime exists
     
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  3. sierragator

    sierragator GC Hall of Fame

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    Must be fake news. Everyone knows it's a disaster and only orange guy can fix it.
     
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  4. ursidman

    ursidman VIP Member

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    Hard pressed to think of why the crime rate trends downward. Article mentions that crime in general spiked in 2020 due to Covid disruptions and society has re-stabilized. Whatever - more of this please.
     
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  5. vegasfox

    vegasfox GC Hall of Fame

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    George Floyd'say 2020 death and the response by Democrat and BLM got the cops to back off policing blacks. Result? 26,000 blacks died from by homicide or by traffic fatality (ballpark estimate). Violent crime was still worse in 2023 than under Trump in 2019
     
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  6. antny1

    antny1 GC Hall of Fame

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    People are too poor to commit violent crimes because of inflation. Crime don't pay!
     
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  7. shaun10

    shaun10 Senior

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    I wonder what cities have the 5000+ agencies that did not report?
     
  8. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    For actual insurrection see: Summer of Love 2020.
     
  9. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Florida is apparently the worst at reporting with most agencies not reporting their crimes. However, this is all largely irrelevant unless they are doing so for strategic reasons (which wouldn't really make sense since the FBI doesn't report this stuff at an agency-wide level). If it is a randomly selected sample, this should provide a good measure of changes, since we would expect in-sample and out-of-sample trends to mirror each other. Id strongly suspect that the lack of reporting is more bureaucracy-based rather than strategic, which appears to be backed up by a variety of alternative crime reporting measures.

    As a word of caution, I will note that the declines are probably slightly overstated. I'd suspect that, consistent with other data sources, we are currently on pace for about a 20% decline in murders instead of 25% and that additional murders will be added to the database to make those numbers work out.
     
  10. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Unsurprisingly, this is false. The violent crime rate in 2019 was 380.8 while the violent crime rate in 2022 was 380.7 (both per 100,000 people). Every indication is that violent crime has dropped substantially since then (although we will have to wait for the full numbers to be sure).

    https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend
     
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  11. Gator515151

    Gator515151 GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 4, 2007
    FBI's latest data shows 'historic' drop in crime, Attorney General Merrick Garland says
    "Murders dropped by more than 26% in the same time period, the data shows.
    The FBI has not released details about the number of incidents for the categories of crime. It will do so when 80% participation levels are met, the agency said."

    Question for FBI Why are you releasing 26% figure if 80% participation levels aren’t met? Just trying to pander for votes?
     
  12. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    Trumpsters hate when America does well. They would be much happier if crime was out of control (which, if you are stupid enough to watch fox, is probably what they are reporting).
     
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  13. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    This is really good news. Not just politically but as evidence at least in one respect the nation is not deteriorating. Excessive crimes leads to general discontent and sometimes authoritarianism.
     
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  14. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    You don’t need excessive crime. The perception of excessive crime is all the sheep need.
     
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  15. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    It really has no bearing politically. Crime is vibes based in politics, stats are meaningless, if people haven't learned this lesson by now, I don't know when they will. People see visibly homeless people or a viral video of retail theft and think crime is out of control. That's what we are dealing with. Stats and data are not going to stop authoritarianism, in fact, sometimes those things go hand in hand.
     
  16. Spurffelbow833

    Spurffelbow833 GC Hall of Fame

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    It's what happens when you decriminalize crime.
     
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  17. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Crime is in fact a creation of the government, they decide what are crimes in the first place
     
  18. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

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    Can't be md - Did you clear these stats with the Republican National Committee? Crime only increases under Democrats and especially Biden.
    Must be a misprint.
     
  19. Gatorhead

    Gatorhead GC Hall of Fame

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    I like it wg. Follow the damn rules WE GIVE YOU, or face the consequences! Comand and Control, all that. We may split hairs on some issues but on many we find common ground.

    Interesting how crime statistics are skewed. We have posters here that LOVE to post when an immigrant male murders a white woman but on the very day of
    a crime like that there are about 100 American on American murders, primarily with fire arms, - every - single - day.
     
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  20. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Can you point me to the jurisdiction that has decriminalized murder, rape, aggravated assault, etc?
     
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