538’s model kicked off

I don't believe they have any chance to predict accurately. The last couple elections have shown it really is going to be all about turn out. Using "old school" polling doesn't seem to be picking up on the disconnect between likely voters and actual voters due to how emotionally charged these elections have become.

If Trump can get his cult to believe it is up to them to save him, and they come out in mass, he wins.

If Biden (and Trump) can convince the left and moderates that Trump is a threat to Democracy and they come out in mass, Biden wins.

Right now, unfortunately, I think Donald has the upper hand on voter turnout. Hope I'm wrong.

 

Safe bet there won't be any more trials before election day ( thanks to his delay efforts and certain homies having his back), so the legal stuff is pretty much baked in.

 

Confirms what has been fairly obvious over the last couple of months. With very few exceptions virtually every poll has been within the margin error (a statistical tie) and recently that's been true for the three most important swing states (PA, MI and WI).

 

He better if he wants to win. This is looking like it won't be a high turnout election, and due to electoral shifts, Biden and the Democrats have an edge with reliable voters.

 

50/50 seems about right to me. It comes down to 3 states that are virtually a tie. Biden looks ok in 2 and less so in one.

 

The X factors are the abortion and weed initiatives. The abortion rights people in particular will not be voting for Trump.

 

I know that polling isn't for everyone, but I love polling season. The methods and analysis are always interesting to me.

 

Something to ponder.
When Trump won in 2016, he never once led in the polls.

 

doesn’t look good even though they are giving Biden a Very slight advantage at this point …. 538 has under estimated the pubs and over estimated the Dems for the last two cycles…

 

Heads the US citizens lose, tails the US citizens lose. We have nominated 2 people unfit for office. Sucks.

 

And all the political noise is ignoring that one party favors women choosing what to do and the other wants to let men make those decisions for them.

 

This is actually somewhat encouraging to me.

 

Although it didn't matter in the end, Trump lost the national popular vote in 2016 by a close to 3 million vote margin so that national polls weren't wrong. I would add that this time around (and in 2020 for that matter) there is much more focus on the swing state polls which actually matter more than the national polls and that in polls for the three most important swing states (PA, MI and WI) Trump and Biden are within the margin of error or in the other words they're in a statistical dead heat.

 

Actually 538 slightly overestimated the Repubs in 2022.
2022 FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast

 

Sorry, meant their state level / electoral college estimates from 2016 and 2020.

 

Yeah that is true. But this time I think Trump is the one getting overestimated by the polls. And as we get closer to the election, I think more people are going to realize how insane it is chose Trump for president. I could be wrong, but I just don't think our country is truly stupid enough to elect Trump in 2024.