Polling done completely post-convictions in NY. Trump +6 nationally in the 5-way. As I expected... June 2024 National Poll: Trump 46%, Biden 45% - Emerson Polling
I hope Judge Merchan sentences with jail time. That will cement the victory. Hell, 3% of America will vote for Trump in that scenario just for the entertainment factor alone. Putting an almost-80 year old ex-POTUS in jail over this is a great look. Merchan should go for it! #redwave
You glossed over some other interesting nuggets. In a head to head, Biden gained ground, and before you pop the champagne, you may want to read this part: 58% of undecided voters say the conviction does not impact their vote; 36% less likely, 6% more likely. The only people more likely to vote for Trump are people who were already going to vote for Trump. Undecideds are going decide this election (no pun intended).
It was 5 points in that same poll the week before. So basically unchanged, well within the margin of error. And that poll has consistently skewed republican compared to others. The yougov poll had Biden gaining a point to a dead even race, but also well within the margin of error. But get excited about it you feel the need.
That's a pretty strong result for Trump, because you have to assume undecideds are going to split fairly evenly. 58% saying the conviction has no impact on their vote is a pretty large number. One would think any criminal conviction would weigh on the minds of 100% of voters. 58% of undecideds are telling you the trial was a sham. That doesn't help Joe Biden at all.
58% it doesn't make a difference so they remain undecided. Among the rest, they are 6 times less likely to vote for Trump....and you think this doesn't help Biden at all? I'm starting to understand why your predictions are always so bad.
you would say trump farting into a stiff breeze that blows the stink right back into his own mouth is a strong result for trump.
Or Trump is going to lose to a guy who should have his car keys taken away. Either way this entire election is a stain on our history.
Don’t see a path for Biden to make up 7 or 8 points nationally, which is what he’d need to pull 270 EV.
It’s not 7 or 8 points, even in the outlier poll you posted. In the battle ground states it averages 3.2, and if he won PA WI and MI, which are all dead heats, he would likely have exactly 270. https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states 2024 Electoral College: No Toss-Up States | RealClearPolling not saying he will win, but counting him out is silly.
So Biden needs to win 3 out of 3 battleground states he trails in by an average of 3.2 points and run the table everywhere else he’s already favored to win? Both of the candidates are known quantities. This isn’t your typical election where a candidate is making their first impressions on the national stage. Everybody already knows what we’re getting. So expecting everything to trend Biden that needs to trend Biden to pull this off is unrealistic. Possible? Sure. But unrealistic if you’re being honest about it.
You didn’t read the link I don’t think. Wisconsin and Michigan are.1 and .3. PA is 2.3. 5 months out from an election that’s nothing. They are all well within the margin of error, even now. Heck, Trump trailed by more on Election Day 2016 in those three states and won all 3. And we still have debate season (which is what sunk Trump in 2020), more trials, campaign ad season, months to see what happens with the economy etc. But even taking your argument that the polls won’t budge much at face value, Trump is about a 2-1 favorite to win as of today betting wise, Hillary was 4-1 in 2016 on Election Day. Long way to go and people don’t understand the concept of variance in polls, good or bad.
Are these the same polls you use when you predicted a Hershel Walker win? Have you ever been right with an election prediction? Your track record has been atrocious
You're making all these comparisons that are not analogous. This isn't 2016. Trump and Hillary both, but Trump especially was still a relative unknown as a political figure in 2016. Hillary was notorious for underperforming her polls. She led by 31 points in Michigan for the primary and Bernie won. The debates didn't sink Trump. Covid sank Trump. Biden led by much more before the debates than he did after. Data is easy to find. If anything, the debates helped Trump. Trials in GA and FL are on hold for months. It will be a miracle if either see an ending that involves a jury verdict. If said miracle happens, it won't be prior to the election. People don't understand that you can't simply say "Dukakis led Bush Sr. at one point by double digits.....so ummm anything can happen!!" Not all elections are equal. In this case, we have the rare occurrence of two main figures who have both won their party's nomination for president before. There isn't a lot to unpack here. Time isn't exactly Biden's friend either. The older he gets, the more gaffe-prone he becomes.
These are the polls with 3rd party candidates taken after the NYC verdict. Emerson is the only one in which Trump is ahead outside of the margin error. The others are all statistical ties. These are the head to head polls take after the verdict. They're all within the margin of error or in other words statistical ties. As mentioned in multiple other posts, polls really aren't meaningful until after Labor Day. Once more from August 1988: Poll: Dukakis holds 10-point lead over Bush - UPI Archives
Biden has gained over 3 points in the average in the last few months. Maybe the trend continues or maybe Trump picks it back up and pulls away a bit again…but no race is truly static because domestic and world events aren’t either. We will see how things go here now as the focus picks up and the people who don’t pay attention til the late summer start tuning in.
