War in Ukraine

Apparently Russia is doing fairly well economically due to the war

Russia overtakes Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world in PPP terms

Russia’s poorest regions amongst the biggest winners from the war spending

 

Indicates to me a level of collusion with China pre-war and a very elaborate plan (at the very least) to pivot towards China as soon as the war began. The Russians were able to anticipate almost everything we threw at them economically. That's the part that scares me. You need a robust economy to fund a war. We thought we could shatter their economy. We've been proven wrong.

 

Pootie spouting off about supplying weapons to other countries so they can target the west. Bluster I'm sure as the response to an attack from one of these other countries would be overwhelming.

 

Yeah, cause, like, Russia hasn’t already been selling arms to anyone we don’t like and who doesn’t like us. They might as well threaten us with technology theft next.

 

It's fun watching world leaders spout off things, isn't it?

 

Anyone who actually thought we could “shatter their economy” with sanctions or that the liberal internationalist pillar of economic independence would deter Russia is a strategic neophyte (looking at you, Jake Sullivan). No degree of sanctions was ever going to be decisive. What they are is an element of a whole-of-government approach to increase pressure on Russia. While, like I said, they aren’t decisive and never will be, they do hurt. All things being equal, Russia would much prefer to operate in an environment where they can trade with the West and don’t find themselves deeper in debt, so to speak, to China.

 

disinformation

 

Where are you getting that the Russians are doubling down in debt to the Chinese? Also, you do see the irony in this assertion, right?

 

Hence, why I wrote “so to speak.” I don’t mean debt as in literal currency borrowed (though, there’s probably a lot of that, too; the Chinese are not just donating Russia munitions). I mean in terms of favors owed to the Chinese. They are getting deeper and deeper into that kind of debt, and that isn’t where Russia wants to be, given that they are sitting on a fair amount land China considers stolen from them. See, Russia isn’t the only revisionist power who wants to play “That used to be mine, and I want it back!”

 

How so?

 

relies on data from putin. Can't find the article but two professors from MIT I think study the details of Russian economy and they aren't buying the numbers putin is selling

 

Russia is selling oil and gas to the Chinese at a discounted rate. Perhaps it was pure luck, but this symbiotic relationship is working a little too well not to have been rehearsed beforehand. In the end, the West stated intentions with the sanctions have not come to fruition.

 

Okay, what’s your recommendation? Does it involve just lifting the sanctions and letting Putin have Ukraine along anything he says belongs to Russia?

And of course there is and has been collusion with China on this. Is that supposed to be breaking news? The Russians scheduled their whole invasion along China’s requested timeline to support their intended invasion of Taiwan in 2022. Otherwise, Russia would have waited until April when the weather was most favorable. I’ve told you this. What is that in comparison to discounted purchases of fuel?

 

The sanctions were never very likely to stop the war by themselves. Putin saved up a tremendous amount of cash before the war anticipating these sanctions. They have had a damaging effect on Russia, no question. The fastest way for Russia to be removed from Ukraine was through military defeat, and Ukraine was making progress towards that goal until the Cowards of Congress committed treason against the United States in support of Russia. Ukraine may still be able to recover and eventually defeat Russia with continued support from the unreliable United States, formerly the defender of freedom worldwide, currently a penny-pinching nation led by a group of propaganda-believing fools.

 

the economy is overheating due to manpower shortages and temporary infusion of massive gubmnt spending, analogous to spraying starter fluid down the carburetor to keep the car running. The engine can't take it long term and the can of starter fluid is going to empty as their petroleum exports crater due to lack of reinvestment, market share, manpower, and brain drain.

 

Ukraine’s best hope may be a faltering Russian economy (yahoo.com)

The Russian gas giant Gazprom was a money machine for the last two decades, enriching many insiders and helping keep Vladimir Putin’s government flush. But that run has ended, with Gazprom recently announcing it lost $6.9 billion in 2023, mainly because of Russia’s war in Ukraine and sanctions that have punctured Gazprom’s sales.
Like Gazprom, the whole Russian economy is beginning to crack under the twin strains of enormous wartime spending and withering sanctions. Since invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has held up better than many Westerners expected or hoped. That has been mainly due to skillful central bank management of the economy and robust oil and gas revenue.
But US-led sanctions, imperfect as they are, are slowly strangling Russia’s economy, and the Biden administration is hinting at more to come. Russia’s war production may be peaking now, with equipment shortages, possibly dire ones, looming in 2025 and beyond.
.......................
But some analysts think the GDP outlook masks so many underlying problems that it’s almost meaningless. Putin “still has some ability to finance the war, but this is running out very fast,” Vladimir Milov, a Russian economist who led some reforms in the late 1990s and has since left Russia, said in a recent podcast for the UK’s Royal United Services Institute. “The signs that sanctions are working are there, but it really takes more time. Putin’s economy is a big beast. It takes time to strangle.”

Among Russia’s problems: Its national wealth fund, a pool of reserves Putin taps to finance the war, has dropped from $113 billion before the war to about $56 billion now. Not all of the $56 billion is liquid, and Russia needs to keep some money on hand for a genuine emergency. “Their reserves are fast depleting,” Agathe Demarais of the European Council on Foreign Relations said at the May 28 Brookings event. Gazprom’s losses, she said, are “going to be a problem for replenishing the reserves. We’re talking about really big numbers. I don’t think there will be an easy way out for Russia.”

 

As a Gator fan it pains me to admit it, but former football coach Tubberville may be the sharpest mind in Congress …

 

The same Tuberville who blocked over 400 military nominees for nearly a year?

 

More on the overheating of Russia's economy, from the boss of Russia's largest bank. He says that the military spending is what is making the economy look good. The rest of the economy is hurting quite a bit, and is not able to produce enough profits to support the war. Furthermore, the war has robbed several hundred thousand men from supporting the economy with their labor, because they are either fighting and dying in Ukraine, or moving to another country to avoid conscription. Interest rates are currently at 16%. If the interest rates go exponential, then Russia's economic system could unravel very quickly. I don't think Putin has an answer for that. The banker is afraid of what happened in Turkey, where interest rates reached 50%.

The boss of Russia's biggest bank said the country's economy is 'definitely and strongly overheated' (yahoo.com)

 

And a War Damn Eagle for that!