Presumably you were informed by “every single Western media outlet” when you posted, in late 2022, that twice as many Russians had been killed than had ever entered theatre at that point.
For someone as knowledgable as you are, you fall into the propaganda trap too easily. I get it. You work for the U.S. military and you want to think everything we have is superior in every way to anything anybody else has. There may be some truth to this and in fact, I hope there is a lot of truth to it, because I live here, but there is nothing absolute when it comes to weapons, militaries, etc etc. I think we've learned that lesson the hard way a few times recently. There is one glaring omission in your analysis above. While it appears there may have been some issues with Russian precision-guided munitions in Ukraine, I gather you are only hearing about the "duds" and not hearing about all the non-duds. But the biggest problem I have with your analysis is the obvious: does a nuclear ballistic missile really need to be "precision-guided" to have affect? We're talking about weapons that have a vast blast zone. They don't need to be delivered dead on center to achieve the desired result.
This part is worth addressing. The precision matters more than you might think at first. We aren’t talking about missing a 10m target by 100m like we are seeing in Ukraine. The circular probability of error is much greater, obviously, with SLBMs and even greater than that for ICBMs. If, for instance, your weapon has a blast radius of 10NM but you miss by 15NM (not bad for a shot from the other side of the world if you think on it), then that sucks for the people in the blast radius, but the target probably wasn’t destroyed. The Russians, as I said, hedge their bet by aiming multiple weapons at the same target. One will probably hit it with the intended effect. As for duds and fizzles, we have a pretty good idea about when the Russians test and how it went. Best to leave it there. I was only explaining why the Russians rely on numbers. Like I said, Medvedev’s threats are empty. If you knew how large these dudes live in terms of property, women, cars, boats, etc, then you would better understand why at the end of day they aren’t going to risk all of that until all of that is really at risk. And it isn’t.
Ukraine has lost as some of us knew would be the case from the beginning. Most of the territory held by Russia will not be returned. Why won't the Biden administration support a ceasefire and negotiated settlement? Because a big L in Ukraine would harm their electoral prospects. So don't expect any pre-election resolution. How many lives will this delay cost? 100,000? 200,000? Do you think the Biden admin cares? Ukrainians we're always just a tool to harm Russia/Putin.
You're probably right about them not wanting to go nuclear and yes, I know how the oligarchs live there, but I'm not sure how much the oligarchs matter. I do acknowledge Vladimir Putin sees a revival of the Russian empire to an extent. Not the Soviet Union, but the Russian empire facade falls apart of they lose Ukraine. From that standpoint, conquest may indeed be more important than keeping his billionaire buddies happy. Say what you will about Putin, but he does not want to be seen as another Gorbachev or Yeltsin. His legacy as a formidable Russian czar is more important to him than his yachts. I think Medvedev's threats are highly irresponsible, lack strategic benefit and are destabilizing to say the least. And that is why I won't totally rule out the possible use of a tactical warhead in Ukraine. They back themselves into a joke like status, of the Kim Jung Un ilk if the threats are completely empty. In other words, I believe the Russians are smart enough not to throw around such threats flippantly. I truly do believe in the Kremlin's eyes, it's like the West is kidnapping Russia's baby. I understand almost nobody in this thread will understand why they would feel this way, but based on what I have seen over the years, they feel this way. Never underestimate how deep those feelings can run and how they can alter rational men into making irrational decisions.
himars hitting targets inside Russia. Past due. Russian indignation that it is no longer off limits is humorous. We want to invade and destroy your country but will only fight in your country..lol HIMARS Makes First Strike inside Russia: Over 40 Explosions Devastates Belgorod/Video (msn.com) The Ukrainian army, thanks to HIMARS, has destroyed an advanced air defense system on Russian territory. HIMARS is an artillery system of multiple rocket launchers manufactured by Lockheed Martin, and it arrived in Ukraine from the USA. .............. The Institute for the Study of War announced that Ukrainian forces destroyed air defense within Russia, "likely" with the HIMARS missile system provided by America. Several missiles hit the S-300 rocket system in Belgorod, Russia. The S-300 was used to launch missiles at Kharkiv and protect military garrisons near Belgorod. This attack cost Russia losses estimated at over a billion dollars, according to foreign media. ........ The USA gave Kyiv permission to strike targets within Russia only if they pose an immediate threat to Ukraine. The country's President Volodymyr Zelensky subsequently requested permission to use American weapons for long-range attacks.
Ukraine still putting Americans on "hit lists,"? The Biden administration wanted American journalist Gonzalo Lira dead and his SBU killers are funded by Washing.
Waiting for evidence that Russian missiles are missing their targets with any regularity. All I see on X are NAFOids complaining about the devastation that is occuring and how mean Russia is.
I wasn’t talking about the oligarchs. The oligarchs, in the sense you mean, helped Putin into power, sure, but they don’t seem to hold a lot of direct power themselves. The “dudes” I was talking about Putin and his direct inner circle, idiots like Medvedev whom Putin keeps around because he will literally do anything Putin says and never challenge his authority. And the threats, while empty in the sense I don’t believe Putin will follow through, are not exactly worthless either. There are plenty of people, especially on the extreme left and right, who would shriek that we should stop right now just in case Putin is not bluffing. Look how the world gasped initially in February 2022 when Putin implied he would respond to any foreign intervention with nuclear war. I’d say the threats worked a lot more than they should have. And, sorry, but I don’t care if Russia thinks Ukraine is its “baby” anymore than I care if you mistakenly believe any other kid is your baby who isn’t. Try to take a kid who isn’t yours and watch what happens. Besides, I say again Russia’s thoughts and feelings were mildly interesting before they resorted to force of arms to resolve a dispute over land. Once they decided that “the strong do what they want, and the weak suffer what they must,” they started to play the realist game. And the realist game only has one rule: you have to win in the field. If they can’t win in the field (and let’s agree they have at least underwhelmed to this point against a smaller, weaker nation-state), then there’s not much more to say about their narrative, is there?
You don't get to decide what Russia is thinking, what their "narrative" is and what their motives are. Like it or not, Ukraine has been united more than it has been divided from Russia over the past 300 years. They are not lying about this. Treating Ukraine as if they are this benevolent independent state that has been invaded by marauding imperialists may sound good when they are shouting their marching orders at you, but the truth is Ukraine has been closely linked with Russia even since the dissolution of the USSR. There were several Ukrainian presidents who were democratically elected and who held close relations with the Kremlin.
Remember how the West lashed out at the oligarchs, many of whom were no fans of Putin ? Showed him I guess.
Since we’re so-whating, so what if Putin is bluffing about nukes if NATO continues to escalate ? Who is going to provide the millions and millions and millions of troops needed to subjugate Russia ?
Correct. I only get to decide whether their bullshit excuse for invading their sovereign neighbor and pillaging its resources matters to me. I have decided that it doesn’t. The West, by and large, has also decided that it doesn’t. If Ukraine suddenly decides it wants to enter into reunion with Russia, then I have no problem with that either. Until that day, Ukraine has my full support to fight as hard as it can, and Russia has my full contempt to lose as many young men as it takes for them to get the message.
