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Q1 GDP 2024 Revised Down

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by ETGator1, May 30, 2024.

  1. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Q1 2024 GDP revised downward more than expectations:

    Bidenomics: GDP Revised Down To A Slower 1.3% Growth Rate (breitbart.com)

    Original estimate 1.6%
    Revised estimate 1.3%

    The U.S. economy grew less than previously thought in the first three months of the year, expanding at an annual pace of just 1.3 percent, revised government data showed Thursday.

    The downward revision was primarily driven by data showing that consumer spending grew by significantly less than previously estimated.

    This was the smallest expansion in gross domestic product in almost two years. The prior estimate had the economy growing at a 1.6 percent pace in the first quarter.


    What do you call it when growth slows, and inflations continues upward?

    Looks like a spot between a rock and a hard place to me.
     
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  2. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Could actually be a case of (relatively) bad news having a positive impact. With the lower growth rate of GDP the Fed may be more likely to reduce interest rates which in turn would result in lower mortgage rates making the actual cost of homes more affordable. Similarly lower interest rates would also make automobiles more affordable considering that the overwhelming majority of cars are purchased on credit.
     
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  3. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Two things:

    1. The Fed has said they want to see months of lower inflation towards 2.0% target before lowering rates. That has happened.

    2. Making housing affordable with lower rates would be offset by sellers demanding more for their homes as demand would eclipse supply.

    The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. JMO, they will be on hold throughout the year, not going up or down.
     
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  4. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Well there’s a shocker… 1.3% vs 1.6%. How will we survive this?

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

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    Mr. Doom and Gloom finding fault with the best economy in the world. He continues to spam the board with nothing but these type of threads...most of it nonsense.
     
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  6. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    Hopefully this won't happen, but if Trump wins it's going to be funny to watch him do a complete 180 on the economy as soon as Trump takes office.
     
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  7. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    I'm sure you can find this on any of your approved sources, so it is far from spam.

    Do you have the answer for falling growth combined with rising inflation?
     
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  8. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Inflation has been decreasing. You admitted it yesterday. So now why are you trying to say that it is going up?
     
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  9. ThePlayer

    ThePlayer VIP Member

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    That's completely and utterly incorrect.
    Inflation is still rising, but at a slower pace.
     
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  10. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yup, he could win the lottery and all he would do is bitch about taxes.
    Unless trump was in office, then he only won due to the orange one.
     
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  11. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    I think you are struggling with the math here. The overall price of a weighted basket of goods is rising. Inflation is the first derivative of the price of the weighted basket of goods. It is falling.
     
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  12. ThePlayer

    ThePlayer VIP Member

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    I think you're struggling with reality.
    Inflation is still up from the 1.4% when Biden entered office.
    Only the rate of inflation has decreased temporarily.
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2024
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  13. obgator

    obgator GC Hall of Fame

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    No red font? Must be good news then??!!
     
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  14. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Inflation has been falling for years, including in the last month. To think of this mathematically, the second derivative of prices has been negative for the last few years.

    Yes, there was a period of time in 2021 and 2022 where inflation increased (i.e., that second derivative was positive). It has been, in general, decreasing since then.

    BTW, Real GDP growth rate (which accounts for inflation) in 2020 was -2.21%, compared with 2.54% in 2023, so if you want to use that window, we have seen a pretty substantial increase in economic growth rates since Biden came into office.
     
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  15. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    yep. Odd seeing a political sect be happy about poor performance of our great country. I guess I just put USA above politics.
     
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  16. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    BTW, mdgator misrepresented my position, big surprise, NOT! :)
     
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  17. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    Prices are rising, inflation is falling.

    Definitions matter. If we are talking about two different things when we use the word inflation, it is impossible to communicate effectively.
     
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  18. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    How so? Here you are yesterday:

    And here you are today:

     
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  19. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    mdgator:

    And here you are today:

    What do you call it when growth slows, and inflations continues upward?

    You have no answer or don't want to answer? So far nobody has touched the question which is funny as it is a one-word answer.
     
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