Not published yet for some reason, but we're most likely a dog there too. FSU went down a point to +12.5 now.
Great post, and I love your eternal optimism! But since 2020: * Florida's record against teams that finished with a better record than our is 5-20 (.200). * Of those teams, the OOC record is 1-6 (.143). Against SEC opponents with a better record than ours, we went 4-14 (.222) * Against P5 teams with a losing record, we are 12-5 (.705). From 1980-2019, we lost three games to P5 teams with losing records. * Last year, our defense was ranked 69th. Nine opponents had higher ranking offenses than our defense, with 6 opponents in the top 19. * Last year, our offense was ranked 46th. Eight opponents had higher ranking defenses than our offenses. * Over the last four years, our recruiting was ranked 6th among our opponents. We were ranked 6th in the Portal over the last three years against our opponents. By no means am I suggesting that we are worse than many or most of our opponents. What I am saying is that the other teams ALSO improve over the years. We can never assume that Florida's improvements are somehow more legitimate than the improvements of other solid teams. Any suggestion of this constitutes hope, and as Colin Powell said, "Hope is not a planning factor." I think a couple of these allegedly better teams got decimated over the winter (FSU most comes to mind). I see a ceiling of 8-4 in the regular season. If we had 2023s schedule, I'd bump that up to 9-3 or perhaps even 10-2, but with this schedule, our team has to be much stronger than it appears, and whether Billy can guide this team through this gauntlet is asking a lot. We could have an 8-5 caliber team end up with a losing record simply due to the enormity of our schedule. Schedules and opponents matter...
Our thinking is our ceiling! Our past informs, but does not predict how the Gators perform in 2024. Hope is a feeling and a certain expectation for the future. If we have no hope or expectations, we have to be insensate (unfeeling). The problems with the Gator football team has not been lack of talent, but lack of leadership. Passion is great for a team to possess, but it's leadership that provides a construct for how the intensity of passion is directed on the field! We have needed a field general on offense like Tebow, and we have it this year in an experienced and seasoned Mertz. We know Graham Mertz had a completion rate of 72.9% in 2023. Suppose for a moment that AR was still at Florida and had a completion rate close to that in 2024. It probably would be reasonable to expect Florida would have a winning season (even with the tough schedule). Obviously, I'm not fairly comparing quarterbacks. Mertz weakness is that he is not mobile, but he measures up well otherwise. The OL is not the same as in 2023--they're improved. I would bet big money we get Badger, because Pearsall has been in his ear. So, we will be fine at receiver, and the offense in general. I don't care what the Gators did the last 15 years statistically, because they often just were not great. What matters is what happens on the field in 2024! Clearly, we are better on defense! We have struggled at linebacker, cornerback, and safety play; plus, we have had no pass rush! I am not naive enough to think our defense will get us to the promise land, but I am impressed that we have a much better defense than we have had in years! I am stoked that we have leadership at LB, S, and, depending on who plays Star, we may or may not be. Frankly, we should play our most experienced person at Star--it is that critical--and that's DJ Douglas or Trikweze Bridges! Otherwise, thats an unknown for me; and, I am uncertain whether we will have a good pass rush or not. I am hoping Boone returns to form, and I like the supporting cast! Safely, I believe our defense will not be our liability this year! I don't have confidence in our ST, and contests are often won and lost by ST play. The scary part, if our field goal kicker goes down, we are without a safety valve. It is what it is, and, hopefully, that is not an issue. Yes, there are unknowns, and I just raised one with the kicker. I am not sweating the stuff that is out of my control. Yes, I will remain optimistic, because what is the alternative, living in the shadow of the past? That's miserable as hell, and I refuse to do it!!! As I said initially, our thinking is our ceiling! Not just yours and mine, but that of Gator Nation too!
Super post, as always. But I'm a history professor by occupation, and the past informs my present. I agree that hope is a feeling, but I've long stopped making expectations from hope because when expectations aren't met, bitterness and finger pointing invariably take over. I hate that even more...
He's right, y'know lol. Short paragraphs and bullet comments are your friend, and much easier to digest...
That's a personal problem, eh? I may be keenly disappointed, bit at the end of the day, they were my expectations and I have to own it!!!
Actually, it is. Throughout my career, I was always taught and trained never to point fingers at others for my unit's shortcomings. When a soldier screws up at anything, when asked why, the correct answer is "No excuse, sir!" The maximum effective range of an excuse is zero meters. When expectations are built from a foundation of hope and wishful thinking, and those expectations are not met, the weak and hysterical among us fans demand that the head coach or unfavored coordinator be fired, the quarterback gets benched, or a host of other irrational demands when in fact, wins and losses are all TEAM efforts. The head coach may be ultimately responsible, but not necessarily to blame. It is akin to the CO of a ship that gets grounded on a sandbar while he is sleeping or not even on the ship. He didn't ground the ship, but he is responsible for everything that happens or fails to happen on his ship, and winds up getting relieved of duty. If Billy gets a third straight losing season and gets fired, it could be due to things outside of his control (brutal schedule, key injuries to multiple players, a critical Pick Six or fumble to lose the game, another Swindle at the Swamp, etc), but as the head coach, he is ultimately responsible, just like that luckless ship captain...
Every unit and organization has shortcomings. Not everyone seeks to assign blame to those who lead or head them. That is what fans do.
That means responsibility, not blame. When Grossman threw four INTs in a loss against Auburn, who was to blame? Spurrier didn't throw the INTs. Did he even call those plays?
Most intriguing game of the season? I say almost all of them will be intriguing. For multiple reasons. I will say the opener with Miami is rea intriguing. After that we can skip the Samford game. Then the rest of the season will be one intriguing game after the other.
eighties - * Florida's record against teams that finished with a better record than our is 5-20 (.200). * Of those teams, the OOC record is 1-6 (.143). Against SEC opponents with a better record than ours, we went 4-14 (.222) * Against P5 teams with a losing record, we are 12-5 (.705). From 1980-2019, we lost three games to P5 teams with losing records. * Last year, our defense was ranked 69th. Nine opponents had higher ranking offenses than our defense, with 6 opponents in the top 19. * Last year, our offense was ranked 46th. Eight opponents had higher ranking defenses than our offenses. * Over the last four years, our recruiting was ranked 6th among our opponents. We were ranked 6th in the Portal over the last three years against our opponents. YES - Reality bites!! LOL What you describe, IMO, is a statistical breakdown of the "nadir" of UF football. No denying reality. But here is some more reality. Since the 80's UF has been one of the better programs in the country. I won't go into all the anylsis but considering W-L's, recruiting, championships, etc, UF has a very good pedigree. (Not "Historicaly speaking but since 1980") UF has very good physical infrastructure now, with improvements to the Swamp in the planning stages, a great academic reputation, is situated in arguably the best recruiting area in the country, and has money. Why am I posting all of these things? Because, IMO, College Football is cyclical. Even the highest profile programs have ups and downs, including Alabama, USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma etc. If I am right, I suspect UF has "bottomed out" and hit it's nadir. There is too much interest, money, pride and prestige on the line, too many resources. Despite the Mullen and Grantham, "disaster", UF has too much underpinning it's program for this current slide to continue. 5-7, 6-6, 5-7. I think UF pulls out of the dive. Regrettably the scheduler stuck it to us. They are making CBN's job all the harder. But iron forged in the hot fires of the furnace tend to make fine steel. I think UF has turned a corner and we will see the bell curve start heading in the right direction.
