Conceptually, I agree with you, but with all of the upward pressure over last 6 months or so I think it would be safer to treat it as a trend for now. We should know about any adjustments around the same time as May numbers so we should find out rather quickly whether it is or isn’t a trend
My 7yo loves red baron brick oven pizza. Was 2.99. ( which is why I used to get it ). Now 5.92 at Publix today. It’s still cheaper than most which have gone closer to 8/9… anecdotal anecdotal.
I know, right? Who am I going to believe: a Federal Government bureaucracy's statistic (in an election year) or my lying pocketbook? Hmmmmm....
Yes it was higher than expected. It's also single month. The markets do not think it's an indicator of trend. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-05-14-2024 Why experts aren’t panicking about the latest jump in producer price inflation The PPI has good news for the Fed. S&P 500 rises ahead of the CPI
Reminds me of Trump in 2016 and 2017. The stats were phony when Obama was in office but suddenly became reliable after Trump took office even though the source was the same "Federal Government bureaucracy". 19 times Trump called jobs numbers ‘fake’ before they made him look good We may assume President Trump is quite pleased with the strong jobs report from his first full month in office: He retweeted the Drudge Report's triumphant “GREAT AGAIN” framing of the numbers Friday morning, after touting employment figures released by payroll firm ADP earlier in the week. Not so long ago, however, Trump's view of the monthly jobs report, which comes courtesy of the nonpartisan federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, was markedly different. As recently as December, he described the report as “totally fiction.”
The pocketbook isn't what lies. But people are prone to all sorts of biases. That is why we utilize data rather than feelings, which is the apparent alternative.
100% agree with your statement. Remember, people create data...with all their biases. "Data" is presented as pure and untainted and it is anything but. (as shown by my OP "Science - who's on first?")
This data is based on a consistent set of methods over time, regardless of the number that it pops out. The headline numbers are themselves based on consistent, sector/product-specific data that also has a consistent set of methods.