Such a bizarre scenario. They hate Biden, because I guess he helped Israel too much. But they don’t hate Trump, who has been probably the strongest pro-Israel President we have had in generations? Makes no sense at all.
While I don't think that they would actually vote for Trump the real threat to Biden would be if they stayed home or voted third party which in a close election could be almost as bad for Biden as an actual vote for Trump .
It’s amazing to me how stupid a good deal of the country is about voting. Voting third party is not really a vote for a third party. It’s a win for one of the two main candidates. How people miss that consistently is beyond me.
It really comes down to those three states. AZ, NV and GA are off the board. Biden can’t lose one of the rust belts or it’s over. Biden could do it, but he is trailing in all 3 states.
It’s a little early to be calling swing states off the board. A lot can, and will happen. But as of right now things aren’t looking great for Biden.
The polling averages right now in Georgia and Arizona are less than the Election Day variance from the poll averages in 2016 Wisconsin for example, which Trump ended up winning. No one in either camp is writing those off as a done deal, I will guarantee. And this is a unique election, third party candidates tend to lose support coming into the election so those votes will go somehwere, Trump could get convicted, inflation could come back up, one of the candidates could literally drop dead at their age, and a hundred other things. Predicting much this early is silly, especially this year.
Truman Dewey Bush Dukakis In July of 1988, a Gallup poll showed Democratic presidential nominee Michael Dukakis leading George H.W. Bush (then the incumbent vice president) by 17 percentage points. Bush Clinton Polling for United States presidential elections - Wikipedia Clinton Trump Polling for United States presidential elections - Wikipedia
The fallacy you are making is that Joe Biden is somehow a redeemable candidate. His main liabilities are his age, his perceived cognitive breakdown and his inability to sell his foreign and immigration policy as something beneficial to the American people. Those things are not going to improve over the next six months. In general, Donald Trump‘s supporters are more loyal. Biden supporters are flaky. That has been evidenced in the polling. Anything is possible. Biden could sweep all three states. But it is a tall task and time is against him. A conviction of Donald Trump would probably add another point or two to his lead. His numbers have been steadily rising the further these indictments and charges get.
But the fallacy in your reasoning is that your candidate is Trump. Trump just as easily can say or do something in the next few months that swing the more moderate voters in the swing states back to Biden. So, yes, Biden is it doing well, but Trump neutralizes much of the distaste for Biden. It’s anyone’s game today, and will probably stay that way through November. Biden will win if the moderate voters are motivated to vote. Trump wins if they’re not. Same as 2016 and 2020.
Biden's reelection chances will be tied to the interest rate in my opinion and cuts keep getting pushed out which is the wrong decision. For whatever reason a large number of people aren't rational and think because the pandemic happened under Trump that he bares no responsibility and everything that happened as a result of the pandemic, labor shortages, supply shortages, home building shortages is the fault of Biden even though our economy faired better than every single first world nation on the planet economically and was about the worst in mortality. I think the country will deserve Trump if it comes to that conclusion.
What CNN says about Battleground States: CNN Data Reporter Calls Latest Swing State Poll an ‘Absolute Disaster’ for Biden | Watch (msn.com) "An Absolute Disaster" The poll I find interesting is the one for Washington State. Trump leads Biden by 5 in the 5-way race: Trump leads 5-way presidential poll for Washington state - Lynnwood Times According to the poll, which is sponsored by The Independent Center, Trump leads with 40%, to Biden’s 35%, Kennedy has 13%, Stein is at 4% West came in at 1%, and approximately 8% of respondents were unsure who they would be voting for president. What may provide some additional insight, is that 45% of the respondents stated they voted for President Joe Biden in the 2020 General Election. The democratic leadership in Washington State has allowed the beautiful city of Seattle to go to hell. I hope the state flips back to red so I can go vacation there again, refuse to spend $ in a blue run state.
Here's what I've learned about polls. If the polls show that Biden is losing then Biden is in trouble. If they show that Trump is losing then it means that Republicans don't like to give their true answer and that there is a silent majority. Either way no matter what polls say it means that Biden is going to lose
