I'll take a stab at this. Hypergamy is the culprit. Going back to 20% of the men getting 80% of the action, the average sperm count per ejaculation in an actual vagina has plummeted. Even if you frame it in a more realistic 40% of the men getting 60% of the action, sperm counts in potentially reproductive acts of sex are down enough to drop the fertility rate drastically. It could be that a lot of those "missing" conceptions would have been people who are mistaken about who their real father is. I look at this as a good thing. At least the average schlub is less likely to be raising someone else's kid without his knowledge.
No question that the start of the baby boom was a promising time. America was rich and getting richer in the 1950s. But let's not pretend everyone had it made. But back to your point. You claimed that "Most couples in their 20's and early 30's" aren't planning to have kids because they can't afford them. Now you've shifted to the ones you've talked to don't plan to have kids for a variety of reasons. That's a big difference. And then there's this: To be the poorest kid in the class means there's about 29 kids who are better off. So you're not talking about 'most couples,' you're talking about the family that would be on the very bottom of the economic ladder.
BTW, here's an interesting Pew poll about those planning or not planning to have kids. The percent of childless people not planning to have kids increased from 2018 to 2021. A variety of reasons ... age, medical, financial .. It is most, but they also polled those up to age 49. Let's face it, if you're 48, you're a bit less likely to be thinking about starting a family than if you're 28. Growing share of childless adults in U.S. don’t expect to ever have children
Christopher Hitchens used to say that educating women was basically all we needed to do to solve most of the world’s problems. World population looks like it’s gonna peak south of ten billion and then hover or slightly decrease. These are good things.
I am arguing against population decline. I am not necessarily arguing for population growth, which is what he assumed. If people would rather immigrate here than live there, that's a them problem. Disagree with your attempts to set the parameters of the discussion. Too many folks aren't interested in the moral case and have even taken to ignoring the economic case. So I'll go to the we need it to sustain our country case.
I think it has always been that way for most people. I could not afford to have kids when we had ours but we managed anyway. I can remember in the 80's when I was first married and the age for having kids people saying "if you wait until you can afford kids you won't have any".
Underlying this discussion is the way white supremacists harmonize fertility decline and immigration - the great replacement theory. They use it to justify all kinds of political violence, both corporeal and extralegal. Makes one wish the GRT were a thing - would greatly improve US society
If we have fewer people, our economy will contract, and our debts will become unpayable. Our whole approach to business, and our definitions of success are all centered around growth.
Exactly. Perhaps if we didn't have an economic system based on endless growth and expansion, we wouldn't need a bigger population to keep that going. But that's not how capitalism works. Of course increased immigration could solve that problem too, but I'm guessing that's not on the menu for some folks either.
Make up the difference is the key word. last thing this country needs is too much immigration clogging the housing, healthcare, increasing pollution from waste, etc. open boarders will do that. Non of us know at the moment.
You're right, I should have said 1 rich white guy from England instead of 0 anyones. Unnecessary hyperbole on my part.
Things were trending downward by the Summer of Love. Looks like 1963 was peak getting-it-on post-war for making babies. That's the tail end of the Leave it To Beaver era. Makes you wonder how they were having all that sex in separate beds. It seems the arrival of the Beatles made people want to have less sex. We have to rethink our whole idea of things.
