OH MY GOD!!! Inflation now at a 3.4% annual rate! Stock market meltdown, bond yields soaring!

Bidenomics have been a real disaster. Looking at the numbers.
April 2024
Bidenflation - 3.4%
"Declining growth" - Unemployment 3.8%

November 1984 Reaganomics under the economic miracle worker.
Inflation - 4.3%
Unemployment - 7.2%

Biden's biggest problem is that the economy has been too good. Unemployment has been low for such a long time that voters have come to accept it as the norm. Inflation has returned to historic norms after briefly reaching a 40-year high the result of factors beyond the president's control although politically the president in office is always given credit or has received blame for the condition of the economy even though in fact he has little actual control.

 

3.4 percent inflation isn’t even above the historical norm, in fact it’s well below it, let alone close to “stagflation”.
Folks have a very odd view of where we are.

 

If Trump wins, absolutely. 10% tariffs on all imported goods, devaluing the dollar, and deporting millions of people in our workforce during a time of significant labor shortages will all cause inflation and hurt the economy.

 

I don’t know if tariffs would really cause stagflation (or if Trump would really even implement them), but this is the one mechanism where I think presidents have a clear connection to prices and the state of the economy. If one thinks the negative impacts of tariffs are justified for some reason, such as unfair practices, that’s fine, but the negative impacts should still be acknowledged. But since Biden has not instituted any tariffs to my knowledge, it’s much harder to implicate his actions in the state of the current economy, regardless of how one views it.

 

So first it was a crazy statement that it was 13.2 percent.
Now that that is shown false, they’re lying or don’t know as much as you do.

interesting.

 

It never got down to the low 3’s then exploded up again. I find it hard to freak about about the levels we are seeing. What historically points to worrying?

 

JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon can’t shake the worry America is headed for a repeat of 1970s-style stagflation (msn.com)

 

He called it a worst case scenario but he is generally good with where we are.
There is a segment of the population that just seeks out bad news I guess.

Jamie Dimon says stagflation is real estate’s worst-case scenario: ‘That will filter through the whole economy in a way that people haven’t really experienced since 2010’

 

I'm starting to think you work on the grounds crew at Ben Hill Griffin the way you keep moving the goal posts

 

Food is up 2.2% over the last year. Gas is up 1.3%. New vehicles are down 0.1%. Apparel is up 0.4%.

Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M03 Results

 

Excluding shelter and electricity all else is around 2%. Seems like low inflation with specific housing issues which we know why.

 

TV's are cheaper...

 

Since food is the only true common denominator (everyone has to eat) in the index, please open up that aperture and tell us how much food is over the last 3 1/2 years.

 

The claim was "right now." Yes, food inflation was higher before the last year. But it has come down substantially.

 

this literally made me laugh, because I’m sure you looked and saw posts here mostly only go back to 2022. So 2021 became the magic number.
But if you want what I said in 2022, and what I’ve said since, it’s here. This is an abnormal cycle, it’s not easily controlled, so where we are now isn’t bad compared to the options.
It’s interesting, you were a lot less political here and open minded, but still portending doom, albeit more rationally.

Fed monetary policy

 

Inflation right now has very little to do with goods. It is basically low-wage services and industries dependent on low-wage services. Even at the height of inflation, the bottom two income quartiles had wage gains that were generally above the inflation rate. The bottom 50% of wage earners have largely gained buying power over the last few years.

The people that have lost buying power are retirees and other non-wage earners and the top 50% of wage earners.

So, we are left with a choice right now:

Choice 1: Try to lower the wage gains of lower wage workers, push down inflation at their expense, and improve the economic condition of the Top 50% of wage earners and non-wage earners. Easiest way to do this: massive increase in immigrants eligible to work and willing to work in low-skill jobs.

Choice 2: Keep wage gains for low wage employees high, keep inflation higher, relatively hurting higher wage workers and retirees. In this scenario, we can continue with the current policy on immigration.

We get to pick one. By doing nothing, we pick choice 2.

 

All I said was "Prepare for stagflation. That post should age well.

Last year's GDP numbers were bogus (imo). They will be revised downward (imo). I think the jobs supposedly created last year will be revised downward as well.

The GDP and GDI (Gross Domestic Income) numbers basically measure the same thing and move in the same direction (I believe,). That's not the case recently. The GDP numbers have been much better than the GDI numbers.

As another poster (a Democrat I'd guess) recently stated, Milton Friedman said illegal immigrants can help our economy AS LONG AS THEY REMAIN ILLEGAL AND DON'T GAIN ACCESS TO OUR WELFARE STATE. I would remove all illegals. They are getting government funds soon as they get here. Each one of the 20M or so that are here (my estimate) who don't have a high school education will cost us $750,000 on avg if they get citizenship, which Democrats will make happen (imo). The $750K number comes from the famous Heritage Foundation ~2012 paper by Rector and Richeine (I adjusted for inflation). They will receive 750K more in gov't benefits than they pay in taxes over their fetimes. Total cost if all of the poorly educated gain citizenship = ~$15 Trillion. That's my conservative estimate. There is also the costs that result from turning Texas permanently blue, such as succession, civil war, having communists running the country and so on.Lowering the national IQ average has hugely negative costs. Increasing diversity by importing lower IQ people has huge negative costs.
Wu could have been letting in people who would make our country stronger but that's not the Democrat/RINO way. Rich and high IQ people, for example.

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