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2024 Election: How Biden/Trump can win

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by citygator, Apr 16, 2024.

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  1. Apr 16, 2024 #1
    citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Charlotte
    Really good visuals and write up by the New York Times if you can access it.

    Basically says:

    Biden will win if he takes Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin
    Trump will win if he takes any of those (PA, MI, WI)

    Lays out other scenarios with Biden winning GA or NV/AZ and losing a midwest state or Trump losing GA and winning some others but basically it is a 3 state race of PA, MI, WI seemingly.

    Opinion | Why Biden Has a Narrower Path to the Presidency Than Trump, in 11 Maps

    While polls show the race for president is tightening, Joe Biden still has a narrower and more challenging path to winning the election than Donald Trump. The reason is the Electoral College: My analysis of voter history and polling shows a map that currently favors Mr. Trump, even though recent developments in Arizona improve Mr. Biden’s chances. The Biden campaign will need to decide this summer which states to contest hardest. Our Electoral College maps below lay out the best scenarios for him and Mr. Trump.

    Seven states with close results determined who won both the 2020 and the 2016 presidential elections, and those same seven states will most likely play the same battleground role this fall: three industrial states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – and four Sun Belt states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

    upload_2024-4-16_12-8-53.png

    Trumps route has lots of options if he wins NC & GA but all he needs is PA.

    upload_2024-4-16_12-10-4.png

    Biden needs the Midwest, if he wins PA and WI all he needs is Michigan.

    upload_2024-4-16_12-10-50.png
     
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  2. Apr 16, 2024 #2
    homer

    homer GC Hall of Fame

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    One bad candidate and one not so good candidate to look forward to.

    Abortion
    Immigration
    Economy
    Healthcare
    Gun control
    Green mandates
    Personal freedoms
    Israel
    Ukraine

    Curious most people’s order of concern?
     
  3. Apr 16, 2024 #3
    danmanne65

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    Mine
    Economy
    Personal freedoms but this absolutely includes abortion.
    Ukraine/Israel
    Healthcare
    Don’t care much about green mandates, gun control or immigration.
     
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  4. Apr 16, 2024 #4
    channingcrowderhungry

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    One tried to overthrow an election. One did not. Nothing else matters to me, personally.
     
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  5. Apr 16, 2024 #5
    sierragator

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    One is an imperfect candidate with whom I have policy differences, the other wants to Orbanize America.
     
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  6. Apr 16, 2024 #6
    citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Charlotte
    I am adding:
    1 Democracy

    Critical (Important and time sensitive)
    1 Democracy => respecting the US process and institutions is critical
    2 Personal Freedoms / Abortion = > They are the same
    3 Ukraine => Don't let the first domino fall over easy

    Important:
    4 Healthcare => Expensive system that isnt addressing declining health in America
    5 Green Progress Mandates =>Its a matter of national security in addition to environmental

    Not Important:
    6 Israel => Its is HIGHLY important but both candidates support them - no real debate
    7 Economy => President doesn't really do all that much here
    8 Gun Control => Nothing can be done, Genie is out of the bottle
    9 Immigration => Doesnt really affect many people although we do need reforms
     
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  7. Apr 16, 2024 #7
    G8tas

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    All we need is Oke's prediction to know who will win
     
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  8. Apr 16, 2024 #8
    AzCatFan

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    Democracy is at stake here. One candidate may not be the brightest, or the youngest, but he's also never tried to overturn a free and fair election with an accompanied insurrection.

    Abortion is a big one, especially living in Arizona. The Arizona Supreme Court just ruled a 1864 rule banning almost all abortions is law of the land, and my daughter, 18, has expressed zero interest in ever having children. And not much interest in dating men, for that matter. She deserves the right to control her own body.

    There will be a D backed referendum on the ballot on November to restore a 15-week ban, with reasonable exceptions for maternal health. Already one of the 500k+ that signed, with only 290,000 needed to get it on the ballot. The expectation is this will drive more women and more younger people to the polls in a state Biden won by a small margin in 2020.
     
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  9. Apr 16, 2024 #9
    homer

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    Hence why I said one was bad and the other not so good.


    I’m not voting for either.
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2024
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  10. Apr 16, 2024 #10
    Trickster

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    Was depressing to read. There's something wrong - and always will be - when one candidate (of either.party!) gets the majority, but the other wins because of the antiquated Electoral College.
     
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  11. Apr 24, 2024 #11
    citygator

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    Charlotte
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  12. Apr 24, 2024 #12
    duggers_dad

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    Why not a Biden-Trump ticket ?

    No losers except for the American people.
     
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  13. Apr 24, 2024 #13
    ajoseph

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    Can’t see how Biden takes Michigan…
     
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  14. Apr 24, 2024 #14
    G8tas

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    I wouldn't know if to laugh or cry
     
  15. Apr 24, 2024 #15
    citygator

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    Charlotte
    Seems pretty close with lots of runway in front of us.

    IMG_0681.jpeg
     
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  16. Apr 24, 2024 #16
    G8tas

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    The Biden team has over 100 offices and hundreds of staff in just the swing states and are adding more. They're going to have a ton of people going door to door. The most recent article I read said that Trump has no more than 5 staffers across those same states because he hasn't raised as much money and he's spending money on legal fees.
     
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  17. Apr 24, 2024 #17
    AzCatFan

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    Biden is also hitting swing states hard with TV advertisements. Here in Arizona, they are daily, especially ones about abortion. Probably getting similar ads in Florida as well. Trump? Haven't seen a single ad yet.

    Money doesn't determine the winner. But it's certainly easier to win when you can flood the airwaves and knock on more doors than your opponent.
     
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  18. Apr 24, 2024 #18
    bigDgator

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    Trump can't win. The Dems have figured out how to steal it, and no one is stopping them anytime soon.
     
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  19. Apr 24, 2024 #19
    channingcrowderhungry

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    This is great news. No need for any Trump supporters to vote then. Stay home and save your time.
     
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  20. Apr 24, 2024 #20
    bigDgator

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    Will do, and you let me know when you cast the deciding vote as well please.
     
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