Coleg: I'm not arguing your point regarding viewership, but I think the issue here isn't how FSU and Clemson compare to the current SEC/Big-10 teams in viewership. There's no doubt FSU and Clemson would outperform several of the current members of the Big-10 and SEC. The question is which programs are going to generate an ADDITIONAL roughly $70 million in revenue to the Big-10 or SEC immediately. That's where I think the problem lies. ESPN has no more TV slots to add games and I have to believe they'd be hard pressed to give the SEC more money. I think the same probably goes for the Big-10 and it's media partners, which is why they only gave UW and Oregon half shares.
If you include ABC, ESPN, and ESPN2, they have a maximum of 9 slots they can fill with SEC teams. There is also a 4th window, but only schools in the MTN or PAC time zones can fill those slots. In reality, the early time slot isn't a premium slot, so there are only 6 premium slots to fill. The non premium games will either be in the first window or end up on ESPNU or ESPN+. Here's where the diminishing returns come in. FSU/Bama will draw eyeballs, and take up a premium spot. But that means one more SEC game will either be banished to U or +. And Will Bama/FSU draw significantly more eyeballs than say LSU/South Carolina? More? Yes. $40 million more worth of eyeballs, which is what FSU would get if they get an SEC invite? No. Notre Dame would be worth it. The others? Like stated, solid west coast schools that can fill the 4th time slot, Oregon and Washington, were only worth a half B1G share. They offer FOX more games in the 4th slot, which has value, and won't mean too many other B1G games lose their premium spot.
Sorry if I seem dense, but since ESPN currently has 5M eyeballs on a FSU game in a current time slot, those fans are not going to switch over to another ACC team if FSU leaves the ACC, same for Clemson. You made the point that the rabid SEC fans will follow their team and I agree... they'd follow to U or + or another new added venue as well... no?
ESPN already had FSU, for $20 million a year under the ACC GOR. Putting FSU vs Duke on ESPNU or + isn't bad for the cost. But move FSU over to the SEC, and you end up moving a game like LSU/SCAR over to U or +, while paying these schools $60 million. While FSU/Bama will draw more eyeballs, it won't be $40 million worth. Not with the already rabid SEC fans. Hence, diminished returns for ESPN.
I think we're largely on the same page on this. Don't forget SECN, which will carry 3 SEC games each week. But ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU actually has a total of 12 EST friendly slots ... but not just for SEC. Last season, I believe the SEC had 3 of those 9 ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU slots and CBS had 1 or 2, plus 3 on SECN, so there were a total of 7 SEC games per week. But things change this is year. The SEC adds another conference game with Texas and OU joining the conference. I assume ABC/ESPN is giving the SEC an 8th spot. As you mentioned ABC/ESPN also has a TV deal with the ACC, plus a new deal with the Big-12. Where are all those games going to go? The problem is if you now add FSU and Clemson, that doesn't necessarily create more TV games because I don't think there is any more available inventory out there ... unless they start putting games on other networks ABC/ESPN owns, like Freeform ... which may be a possibility. But those additional games may cannibalize viewers from their other games. It may not generate many new viewers. The point being that adding more schools to the conference probably doesn't necessarily add more inventory and may not generate much more revenue for the networks or the SEC. Adding FSU and Clemson might put more interesting SEC games on TV and increase ratings to some extent but it probably doesn't generate enough additional revenue for ABC/ESPN that they can pay the SEC an additional 140M a year? I don't think it will. Also keep in mind that one of the great advantages the SEC has had is that all the fans from every SEC school can watch all their schools SEC conference games. Will that still be the case? While I think FSU and Clemson arguably deserve to be in a top tier conference over some schools that are already there, as you mentioned the math just may not allow it to happen. The SEC and Big-10 are unlikely to add any school unless it's going to add at least $70M right away. Notre Dame is probably the only program left that does that.
Market share has less to do with geography than it does having playoff teams and national championships. Our tvs pick up all games.
Most people don't watch all games. They watch their team and maybe a few other games of interest. FSU in the SEC will be a middle of the pack team.. Watching them will be like watching Miss. St. vs. Vanderbilt. Steamrolling the ACC and coming up with a great record won't translate over to the SEC. I don't agree with you on your view of geography, however I guess in time we will see how FSU/CLEMSON play out.
Interesting twist. Tallahassee Judge John C. Cooper orders FSU and ACC to enter mediation, but technically approved the ACC's motion to dismiss the case. But he's giving FSU 7 days to amend it's complaint. Not really sure what to make of it. Judge orders FSU, ACC to mediation to settle suit
Looks like he may be trying to force the ACC's hand into negotiating a smaller buyout to let FSux out of the conference at a reduced rate. If the mediation falls through then the judge may have inadvertently sunk fsu's battleship.
Maybe, but I read it as maybe something else. He technically sided with the ACC with the motion to dismiss the case. What I read from the article sounds to me like he doesn't think FSU's case isn't strong enough as it's currently worded, but he's trying to give FSU 7 extra days to rewrite the case to make it stronger. It sounds like the mediation is something he does in ALL cases, hoping the parties can work it out themselves. Clearly, he's trying to give FSU the benefit of the doubt and hoping they either make the case stronger or mediate a settlement with everything staying in Florida. If that the case, then FSU had better come up with something good, because it sounds to me like he doesn't think their case is strong enough, even in a friendly venue. If they do come up with something good and the case stays on Florida, the ACC might want to go to mediation. If they don't and he dismisses the case, then everything goes back to North Carolina ... where if probably belongs. If that happens, FSU and Clemson are going to have a tougher fight on their hands.
It would also be interesting to see how Clemson is handling their lawsuit to see if FSU and Clemson could join their cases together. In either case, FSU's case (or Clemson) is not that strong as they signed the deal to let the ACC negotiate all of that for them as a member and nobody was tricked or coerced into doing it. So they are stuck unless they come up with the half a billion each.
I'm not a lawyer and I won't pretend to be, but I don't think Clemson could join FSU in a lawsuit filed in Florida. I would think any form of joint lawsuit would have to be under the jurisdiction on the ACC, which would have to be filed in NC. FSU filed in Florida thinking they'd get a more favorable ruling. Judge John C. Cooper is a Nole grad. If they can't get a favorable ruling from one of their own grads, that doesn't bode well for the strength of their case. If that fails, I assume FSU, Clemson and whatever other schools want to join in would need to file a lawsuit in NC. I have to think if that happens, it would GREATLY help FSU and Clemson if they can get UNC to join the case on their side. Chances are that UNC had a lot of involvement in writing the GOR.
Every week the CBS game doubled up the viewership (mostly non-contenders for national championship) over FSU every week on ABC. FSU just isn't going to move the needle for more $ in tv contracts, regardless of fake aspirations to be a national champion or undefeated or undefeated in regular season or undefeated on home games or undefeated on odd weeks of the months at home or undefeated in conference home games. They would just be another SEC team, like OU will be.
In every multi-state, complex commercial contract I've ever seen there is a specific provision for agreed upon jurisdiction and venue and choice of law (usually from the state where jurisdiction and venue is pre-agreed) for any dispute resolution. I was told by someone earlier in the thread the pre-selected jurisdiction and venue were Charlotte (I think), North Carolina. I don't understand what f$u can argue to escape their previously agreed place to file/resolve any contractual disputes. Mediation is a complete waste of time in a case like this that's most likely to be tossed. The judge is stalling (IMO) and trying to give f$u every chance to plead something he likely telegraphed in court that would create some issue he can hang his hat on to keep control of the case; but a forum selection clause should be extremely hard to overcome. Just my 2-cents.
Also, we have a specific thread for f$u fans to post their positions in. This one is about Clemson. We don't need multiple threads discussing the f$u proposals and talking points. Thanks!
As the ACC Turns... A Football Soap Oprah. Clemson lawsuit against ACC gets new breakthrough as judge rules in favor of Tigers to access ESPN contract details Clemson lawsuit against ACC gets new breakthrough as judge rules in favor of Tigers to access ESPN contract details
What I don't understand is how do all the ACC schools not already have access to a copy of the contract? I would have thought that every member university would have had a representative involved in approving the contract. Not necessarily signing the final contract but reviewing and agreeing to it before it was signed.
This is discovery. It’s nit a huge deal of who is going to win or lose. It was a skirmish, annd each side likely got what they want, including the ACC with ensuring Clemson keeps the document confidential.
I still don't see where they think they're are going to go if they are allowed out of the ACC at a lower cost. Why would anyone court a program which has proven to be litigious against their own conference? Plus, I don't see them helping the SEC's bottom line. When fsu is bad, their attendance is very poor. And, they would be bad a lot more often in the SEC.
