Inflation remains hotter than expected, muddying path for Fed rate cuts

I don’t follow concrete, but the chart does not disagree. Lumber had some crazy volatility, concrete just goes straight up. Wonder why that is? Too few players keeping prices high?

 

Everything goes up. It will as long as they can sell it. I wouldn't say too few players, but much less than lumber sales. Ready mix concrete business isn't cheap. I think lumber supply caught up and then got excessive after the exorbitant increase. It's pretty level and low now.

The single family home construction industry is starting to prop up the supply market. I don't see an end there. Labor is softening. I'm having subs contact me. I had an architect tell me for the first time he can remember, he's having commercial GCs contact him for projects. And in numbers. Lots who thought they had a full schedule had it fall apart because the rates/financing killed the deals. Fallout is coming. This is in the panhandle which is a hot market, too.

Fed will wait too long to act. These guys don't see what's happening in real time. In fact, they're dealing with very outdated information. They should have raised 2-3 pts earlier and then we could have left it there. Too much too late and now they cant go back. They also need to shut their mouths. "No comment" to any rate cut questions would be ideal. They keep promising cuts which delays the progress towards it.

 

Fed minutes still expect cuts. Certainly possible we won’t see them though.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/fed-meeting-minutes-point-to-caution-on-inflation.html

 

They might do a cut…but they probably shouldn’t.

 

Wait, inflation remains hotter than expected? Well, I guess that depends who is setting expectations. There are a lot of people who had serious doubts the Biden administration could get inflation under control and up to this point, those people are 100% correct.

 

I wish that were true. I absolutely agree with you that starter homes are the way to go. But they just aren't available in numbers that would make them a viable path towards home ownership.

I'm more familiar with home prices in St Johns County, we just sold a house there. Median household income should be able to buy a $200,000 house according to Census stats and Google's mortgage calculator. So we should be able to find a bunch of starter homes, small 2-1 sfh, for sale under $200,000. 1 result. In Hastings (a thirty minute drive from St Augustine). Ignoring the terrible resale value of mobile homes, we'll expand the search results to include mobile homes. Now we are up to 30 starter homes that a young family making at or under the median income can afford. If we ignore all restrictions on what type of home, we can find 5 condos to add to the list. They don't suffer from the resale problems of the mobile homes, but they do have significant monthly fees, not ideal as a starter home, but we'll take what we can get. So 1 actual starter home, and another 34 mobile homes/condos that will do in a pinch, but won't advance the family's finances like an actual starter home.

Oh, and million plus dollar units for sale? 503.

Builders make more money off of big money houses, so they build more big money houses.

Edit: Realized I did this same comparison about two years ago. Back then there were 11 homes for sale under $200,000 (but ten of them were in deed restricted retirement communities, so just like now there was only one actual start home on the market) and 45 million plus dollar houses.

 

Yep, we've been looking for a while...it sucks, is putting it lightly.

 

How will Trump get rid of inflation?

 

Really?

 

Rather than getting rid of it if Trump imposes his tariffs he will reignite inflation.

Goldman Says Trump’s New China Tariff Plan Would Slow US Growth

 

You may be right

I said a few months ago we would be lucky for a June cut, that transitory supply chain inflation sure has proven to be very sticky…

 

Actually the 5 Trillion into the economy from fiscal and monetary stimulus has taken a lot longer to burn through. Now the build back better juice is starting to work its way in.

 

I think it was a terrible mistake to announce possible cuts regardless of their intentions.

 

If those Trump tariffs are so bad why hasn’t Biden gotten rid of them? He’s only had 3 years to review them…

 

cuz they are leftist policy. you should watch the video of Nancy Pelosi's face when Trump rolled out commie New NAFTA. here

 

Well they waited about 6 months too long to start raising so who knows.

 

Cheap money will do that.
Also why boats and RVs were selling like mad and now they have cooled. Many people just look at the payment not the actual long term price of the item when they are spending on wants not needs.

 

That’s beneath too many people now, it’s not considered acceptable living conditions unless it’s a 3/2 with a bonus room 2500sq ft and a pool/spa.