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Up is down: Polling inaccuracies this year.. again.. maybe.. or not

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by citygator, Apr 8, 2024.

  1. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Unless you feel that Biden is suddenly pulling in the senior white voter and Trump is gaining votes among young and non-white voters the polls are really off this year, again, again. Political experts are trying to figure out if it’s a shift in alignment or more bad polling. Experts seem convinced the overall numbers are right with a close election ahead with Trump leading slightly right now but it is the layers beneath that have them perplexed.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/07/voter-age-biden-trump-2024-election-00150923

    Something weird is happening beneath the overall stability of the early 2024 polling — and it’s either a sign of a massive electoral realignment, or that the polls are wrong again.

    Polls show former President Donald Trump is ascendant with the youngest bloc of the electorate, even leading President Joe Biden in some surveys, as less-engaged young voters spurn Biden. Meanwhile, Biden is stronger with seniors than he was four years ago.

    “Seems like we know how to poll white, middle-aged people really well,” said John Della Volpe, the director of polling for the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics and an expert on polling young voters. “But if they’re younger, older, Black, Hispanic — there seems to be no consensus about what’s the best practice these days.”

    Is there a fundamental realignment underway of the American electorate? A systemic error in polling? A little bit of both?
     
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  2. Gatoragman

    Gatoragman GC Hall of Fame

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    I don't know? Would it stand to reason that younger folks are being hit harder with some of the economy numbers we are seeing? Housing as a whole, pricing is up so younger folks can't hardly afford to rent let alone purchase? Fast food, really any eating out, seems to have sharply risen in costs? Groceries, despite some of the data, is definitely higher. Wouldn't it be typical that younger voters have a lower disposable income, so any increases would effort them greater than older more established people?
     
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  3. gatorjo

    gatorjo GC Hall of Fame

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    Yes, these younger voters probably see that inflation exists. But they are also probably smart enough to realize that electing a rapist to lower top-tier tax rates won't do anything to help them.

    They also realize that, much more than anything Biden has done, a major factor in the inflation is the deficit-fueled fiscal stimulus from the Trump Administration. They understand that only a total moron would deficit spend to stimulate a strong and growing economy. So no, they probably DON'T want to vote for more of that.
     
  4. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    If young people voted for anything other than the right to protect democracy from a usurper and to keep the government out of their bodies I'd be surprised. But never underestimate the American voter.
     
  5. Gatoragman

    Gatoragman GC Hall of Fame

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    Did you hear Trumps statement this morning on abortion? What I heard is, it is now and should remain a state's issue that any limits would be determined by the state via amendment to the state constitution. Essentially the people get to determine what and if any limits would apply.
     
  6. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    No. Other people get to decide limits, not the individual. Trump loses both sides that way. No pro-choice human will look at the illegal laws getting passed in the south and say well at least state level morons are controlling my body not federal level morons. Zero points.
     
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  7. archigator_96

    archigator_96 GC Hall of Fame

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    You're assuming young people care more about that stuff than trans gender and pronoun issues or racism and abortion.
     
  8. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    I would also add that if Trump is elected (G-d forbid) he could (and probably will) have his AG invoke the Comstock Act to prevent the the US Postal Service from shipping mifepristone and misoprostol, the two abortion drugs. Justices Alito and Thomas have already provided Trump with the blueprint and considering that a majority of abortions are drug-induced rather than surgical the election of the defeated indicted former president could have a significant impact on women's bodily autonomy.
     
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  9. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

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    He's lying. If elected and able, he will use the power of the government to enact Project 2025. There are lots of ways abortion rights can be scuttled even if legal by regulatory and legal threats.
     
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  10. Gatoragman

    Gatoragman GC Hall of Fame

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    I understand what you are saying, but I firmly believe the overwhelming vast majority of the people would like to see some level of limits. If the people get to decide that I'm not sure that would be as big of a loser as you may be thinking. I think it's only the fringe that really want no limits right up until birth as an option. I know the later term abortions are very few and far between, but I think it is just the extremes from both sides that either want total ban or total unfettered access. I believe what he is saying the people from each state gets to decide. I just don't see that as a big loser at the polls.
     
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  11. Gatoragman

    Gatoragman GC Hall of Fame

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    Well....... Having something to eat and somewhere to live might trump most of the younger, not the activists, but how many do they actually represent?
     
  12. Gatoragman

    Gatoragman GC Hall of Fame

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    Glad we have so many here that can tell the future with such certainty.
    Stock tips???
     
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  13. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    AMD. they are going to be the microsoft to nvidia apple. running a different platform AI on a chip that costs 1/10 of NVidia. Open source platform created by former lead tech guy at nvidia and brilliant AI lady. Can't find the article but everyone wanted to hire her so she did her own thing. AMD is run by cousin of Nvidia owner. rolled my intel into about 6 months back, pop is really yet to happen
    AI Chips: In the AMD Vs. Nvidia Fight, Second Place Is Still A Winner | Investor's Business Daily (investors.com)
     
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  14. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

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    The past is prologue. Trump is a tool of the billionaire class using the rubes to get their way.

    After the 2017 tax cut, Trump said, "My rich friends are going to be so mad about this, believe me" as if they were getting screwed for the common man.

    Just this week at MAL, he was bragging about all the tax money he saved his rich friends with that cut.
     
  15. Gatoragman

    Gatoragman GC Hall of Fame

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    Well...I would definitively say I am not one of the rich guys, but my taxes were significantly lower than they are now.
     
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  16. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

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    The tax cuts for you and me were temporary. The ones for Elon and Exxon-Mobile were permanent.
     
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  17. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Are you lib’s tin foil hats connected by RF transceivers?
     
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  18. gatorjo

    gatorjo GC Hall of Fame

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    Pretty weak.
     
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  19. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

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    Truth Social merger —> the shit heap
     
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  20. snatchmagnet

    snatchmagnet Bring On The Bacon Premium Member

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    I have faith in the American voter. Whether it’s what I like or not, they typically rectify their mistakes.