Trump tariff I would wholly endorse (rant)

No one said we were “out of the woods”, only that you’re purposely distorting the current situation for political reasons. Maybe the long term trend does change, we will see, but right now, that’s just not true. 2 months is a statistical blip, it means little. YoY that gauge is well down significantly as well. And even if that number were accurate, it’s barely over our long term average and well within historical norms, albeit higher than the fed wants. It’s hardly “rampant”.
Bonds are up not because of an expected increase in inflation, just that that decrease isn’t happening as fast as anticipated and rate cuts are being pushed out. But no one is talking about rate increases anywhere, which would be the actual discussion if there were serious increasing inflationary pressure.

 

I've had pretty good luck. As City mentioned, there are a lot of bots, but I can usually tell when the bot escalates the issues to a human.

One thing I have heard about chat (involving a human) is that these are usually the better techs. The best techs get rewarded for being good techs by getting assigned to chat as opposed to having to talk to people over the phone. Just something I've heard.

I don't mind waiting a couple minutes for chat replies. Usually I'm just looking for documentation that either isn't available online, or is online, but rat-holed somewhere on their cluttered website. Plus, you have a chat transcript, which is handy at times either with taking notes or disputing something.

 

having big gov address this problem is like addressing the problem of dog shit on the sidewalk by peeing on it.

 

Cool. Hopefully you picked up some of that SWEET DJT stock.

 

I'm sure he'll grab some after he finishes his 32 remaining monthly payments on these sweet babies....oh, & this.

 

I honestly have not understood any of the rate cut talk. The only explanation that makes much sense is that they are trying to manage inflationary expectations. Expected inflation is 1 of the major causes of inflation. Otherwise, int rates seem fine to me. I guess people are super myopic & consider these rates high. Further, not rilly seeing a need to raise rates either. rates > inf generally reduce inf.

it's not like we're in the 80s

 

Who is talking about rate hikes? It’s still just delayed cuts on any credible sites I have seen.

 

Big Cletus down at the Huddle House.
Apparently "the" news source for some here.

 

I'm still not sure what the tariff would be. Taxing American corporations if they use customer service employees or contractors outside the US, is that it?

 

Still, despite the mountain of evidence against him??????

 

Thanks for the explanation okee. It seems to me you are making these two claims: 1) the products offered are currently inferior due to outsourcing, and 2) companies generate more revenue by offering these inferior products.

Accepting both of these propositions simultaneously leads us into a paradox, where either we must deduce that consumers are acting against their own interests or we must identify a barrier blocking companies from offering this service.

The definitions of socialism are manifold, so let’s leave that word alone for now. However, I will say that state action based on the former proposition that individuals cannot make good decisions for themselves is inherently problematic. Clearly we risk tyranny if we allow state agencies to install mandates on how people need to live whenever these agencies believe that they can make better decisions than the citizens themselves.

However, I think government action is quite proper whenever we find ourselves in the latter situation, where a barrier exists to block the people from the choices they would like to make. The catch is that this must be demonstrated and not simply assumed. This is tricky business. Ironically, I would say that tariffs themselves often are such barriers to free choice. When Japan put tariffs on US rice, the state defended it saying it was protecting its citizens from an inferior product. Economist Mike Munger noted that this justification was ironic, because if it were the case that US rice was inferior, there wouldn’t need to be a tariff on it, as consumers would simply avoid purchasing it. In the end, we want to make sure our interventions are breaking down barriers rather than erecting them.

 

He's shown again and again on here that he supports a version of Trump he's invented in his head that is some kind of rational fantasyland moderate.

 

Many have.

Often people commit early to a position and, when all the evidence shows it's a faulty position, they don't have the strength of character to admit their position was wrong.

Admitting one was wrong is one of the most difficult things for us humans to do. We think it's a sign of weakness when it's actually the opposite.

 

I find that a lot here on too hot from both sides!!

 

Interesting data to be released this AM. As a lender, I'm hoping for "high for longer"!! I've remained short-term in treasuries but may look closer at the 2- and 3-year at 4.5%. Wish I'd gone a little longer back in Oct23.

March jobs report expected to show slower pace of hiring, lower unemployment rate (yahoo.com)

"The March jobs report is expected to show some signs of cooling in the labor market after two months of robust job gains shocked Wall Street to start the year.

The monthly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 213,000 in March while the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% from the previous month, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. In February, the US economy added 275,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9%.

Here are the key numbers Wall Street will be looking at compared to the previous month, according to data from Bloomberg:

Nonfarm payrolls: +213,000 vs. +275,000 previously

Unemployment rate: 3.8% vs. 3.9% previously

Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: +0.3% vs. +0.1% previously

Average hourly earnings, year-on-year: +4.1% vs. +4.3% previously

Average weekly hours worked: 34.3 vs. 34.3 previously"

 

Added 303K jobs in Mar24. Jan and Feb24 job adds both increase by approximately 10%.

MSN


“Average hourly pay rose 12 cents to $34.69, pushing down the yearly increase from 4.3% to 4.1%.”

Since hitting a high of 5.9% in March 2022, average annual wage growth has slowed as labor shortages have eased, but it’s still above the 3.5% pace Federal Reserve officials say would align with their 2% inflation goal.