Clemson files Grant of Rights language lawsuit against the ACC

How would the SEC lose USCe?

 

The implication is SC gets only one team due to limited eyeballs. Therefore, if Clemson gets in, USCe would leave. We are plainly talking about the new reality of AAA minor league ball and not the usual college football. Or should I say, what we want to believe is major college football.

I have posted plenty of times that the only real thing that makes sense for expansion is to add teams from Virginia and NC. The thing may be that if the model is strictly 16 teams, then two current teams would have to leave and become "AA quality". Probably Auburn (Alabama has the same issue as SC), Vandy or Miss St (Old Miss is like USCe). We shall see.

The B1G will have the same problem. Get a Notre Dame, someone would have to be demoted. And the two Va/NC teams that did not get selected may then go there and then the list of demotees goes up.

 

If UNC files, I think there is a chance NC State would have to join them since they are both state schools. Both schools are interested in competing in football at a national level and that is what is driving FSU and Clemson to get out of the ACC. UVA may follow UNC but only because they do not want to be left in a dying ACC and they are an attractive property and a good fit in the Big 10.

 

And then the question is, if that's true, why would Clemson and half ass u want out? Easy path to easy money as a conference champ.
If they get out and get in the SEC or big 10, there is no guarantee that they make the playoffs with increased competition. If they go to the big 12 then that's a different story.

 

I'd be very surprised to see unc go to the SEC. The believe they're above the SEC and belong in the B1G. The interesting question is NC State. Not sure the B1G would take them, even in a package deal with unc. The SEC could do a lot worse than NC State.

 

That is also how UVA feels about the SEC. It would not surprise me to see FSU, UNC, and UVA end up in the Big 10 and NC State and VaTech in the SEC. The question is where does Clemson end up.

 

Clemson & FSU - dying schools in a loser conference gasping for breath.

 

No offense tegator80, but this is one of the silliest arguments I've heard. NO school is going to voluntarily leave the SEC or Big-10 and a roughly $60M annual payday for their school. Why would they do that. And I don't believe that either the Big-10 or SEC, or any conference for that matter, is going to kick any members out without cause. That would be a bad precedent.

USCe has comparable value to the SEC as Clemson. And there is no way in hell that the SEC would want to let Auburn go. Even in a down season, Auburn was #17 in national TV viewership this season, right below UF who was #16. Auburn is arguably a top 10 brand in college football.

Finally, there is no reason to think the model is 16 teams. SEC is already at 16 and the Big-10 is at 18. My guess, and this is only a guess, is that the number may be more like 20. I base that not so much based on any conference model, but based on the limited number of programs I think the SEC and Big-10 would be interested in ... Notre Dame and UNC for sure, FSU, Clemson and UVA probably, but after that, I think it gets pretty questionable. Are schools like Kansas, Oklahoma State, NCSU, VT, GT and Miami really going to generate $60M in value to the conferences and TV networks? That's the real benchmark in my opinion.

 

If there is a package deal with UNC then the package would likely be Duke.
NC State for whatever reason is not thought of highly by those two teams.

 

Why Duke? What do you think Duke brings to the table in terms of relationship with UNC?

 

There’s two schools in the BIG ranked higher than Florida, Northwestern and Michigan. UNC can pound sand with their arrogance.

 

Duke / UNC tied at the hip for basketball and Academics (although duke may think they are higher in academics). Both may see themselves as a fit for big 10.

 

The silliness is not that the landscape won't change, it is plainly that the game going forward is not going to be the same. What seems to be missed is that what we are setting up is a de facto minor league system for the NFL. Until further notice, the SEC and the B1G are setting up to be the "AAA" league. The others will be the "AA" and "A" levels. What I am saying is that, the reason why there is so much money being doled out isn't because "we are nice people and deserve it" but rather the business model (eyeballs and resources) has to make sense. So, if this is the NFL (analogy speaking) and a Las Vegas becomes one of the 32 teams because they have what the league wants, Oakland leaves. Now, can an Oakland try to get back into the game? Sure, that has already been done, there and Cleveland and Houston and Baltimore and St. Louis and LA.

All I have done is to proclaim (as I expect it to play out) that a second group of eyeballs in SC is NOT as good of a business plan as a new set in Virginia or NC. And the exact same thing can be said about Mississippi and Alabama.

And as I said, what they get to suffer from (whomever it is) the indignity of being "AA" level. That is all. Clemson and FSU are going to be relegated to those levels.

 

The cost for a B1G and SEC team right now is $60 million. Notre Dame is worth this. So are Alabama and Ohio State. After that, are all other SEC and B1G schools worth this? That is TBD, especially with the changing TV landscape. ESPN is losing a significant number of subscribers every quarter with cord cutters who don't sign up for ESPN+. While still profitable, ESPN has had lower revenue numbers the last few years. And now, they are on the hook for paying all 16 SEC teams $60million a year.

This is why ESPN will fight the ACC lawsuits. FSU and Clemson are bargains at $20 million a year for the next 10 years. And if the market shows top conferences are only worth $50 million a year per school, the last thing ESPN or Fox wants to do is add more schools they are overpaying every year.

I also don't think the SEC is interested in expanding. No need. How many more eyeballs would Georgia vs. FSU generate if the game is Georgia versus Oklahoma? None. UGA and Oklahoma are already SEC members. What's the value of adding FSU?

The only value the SEC might add are schools not already in the footprint. While SEC football viewers in Seattle already mirror PAC numbers, you could double that by adding Washington to the SEC. But then the SEC is no longer a regional conference, which is something the SEC values. Also, the top four western brands are already future B1G members. And none of the others are worth $60 million.

 

They are not really tied at the hip for anything other than a basketball rivalry. Their academics are not tied together in any way other than being good. Duke is a small private school that does not pull large amounts of their student body from in state. They are not interested in competing at the national level in football. Duke is just not an attractive brand when you are focused on adding big, state schools that are willing to spend the money to compete in football.

 

More

Sounds like a crime family motto.

 

I don't disagree with your premise but the schools wanting to join the SEC and Big-10 aren't the ones making the decisions and they have little leverage. The Big-10 and SEC will probably take whoever they want.

If I were guessing, I think chances of the Big-10 or SEC taking 2 schools from the same state are pretty highly unlikely. At this point, I also think the Big-10 and SEC are probably going to work together on the next round of expansion, where they haven't in the past. For example they may mutually decide it's in each other's best interest to have 2 20-team conferences and to have the Big-10 take Notre Dame and UVA to get to 20 and SEC take UNC, FSU, Clemson and one more to get to 20. What number of teams they ultimately decide on and who goes where is anybody's guess.

But I really think the SEC and Big-10 are now acting more like 1 overall entity with mutual goals.

 

The AVERAGE value of the SEC and Big-10 schools was about $60M when the TV deals were maid. I agree they probably really aren't worth that now. I think maybe the top half of the SEC is worth more like $80M while the lower half may be more like $40M. But to your point, what's important here for expansion is what schools out there are currently worth $60M+ in value. As you said, Notre Dame is the ONLY sure bet. UNC is probably #2. That's why I believe any other schools coming in (including UNC) are probably going to have to be willing to take a half share like UW and Oregon.

I disagree, but only because I think ABC/ESPN would like to get out of the ACC deal. Yes, they're getting FSU and Clemson at a deal, but they're also grossly overpaying for ACC games outside those 2 teams. If Clemson, FSU, UNC and one other leave, they can probably scrap the entire ACC deal and pay those remaining schools under $10M each. In addition, I don't think ABC/ESPN or other networks will give the SEC and Big-10 much more money. They really can't add any more games. They've all pretty much filled all the available slots on their networks. Of course if they can kill the ACC Network and replace that with SEC Network 2, that might create a few regional slots, they could add Thursday games (not big money makers) and streaming will help a little, but they're not going to pay the SEC and Big-10 anywhere near $60M per new team. And we know the SEC and Big-10 members aren't going to take a pay cut.

I think ABC/ESPN has more to gain than lose if the ACC implodes, so I don't think they'll fight the lawsuits.

I generally agree that the SEC, and the Big-10 for that matter, have any major desire to expand. I've said for a while, I don't think either will want to expand until Notre Dame becomes available. The Big-10 and SEC would take Notre Dame in a heartbeat. The only other way I see the SEC or Big-10 expanding right now, is at a half share payout. If they can get FSU, Clemson and UNC for a half share for 10 years, it would probably be worth doing.

I don't think it's as big of a deal for the SEC to be regional as it once was. Once the SEC and Big-10 got what is essentially national TV coverage of all the games, they became national conferences. That's really where the 2 conferences separated themselves from the other conferences and got the big money deals.

You already know my position on the value of West Coast games. All the SEC and Big-10 TV time slot during the day are already filled. There's no more inventory. The value of adding West Coast night game where most EST and CST viewers are asleep by halftime is pretty limited. I'm not saying there's no value, but the value is pretty limited.

Plus with UW and Oregon already members of the Big-10, I don't think there's a single school west of Texas that's available that would even be worth a quarter share.

 

I thought the same - but latest round of expansion goes against that with B1G taking both SoCal teams. And the SEC taking Texas.

All we’ve ever heard about one team representing the “eyes” of the state (in terms of viewership) doesn’t seem to hold now.

It will be a tough proposition to start kicking out teams tho. Teams that have never won conf championships. But it could happen.