Some states more than others. Fla is a destination state even with high home and auto insurance policies. No state income tax more than makes up the difference from most other states. When covid caused many businesses to allow employees to work from home that increased the demand for rural homes, many in fancy new subdivisions with lots of amenities and not too expensive HOA dues. I’m seeing 20 and 30 year olds that work from home with young kids moving into them.
For those of you who think homes are out of reach for people: Homeownership Rate Unchanged at 66% | Eye On Housing
In 2019 it was all good, but in 2020 it wasn’t? That doesn’t even make sense. We aren’t maxed out on housing. There are roughly $1.4M listings of unsold homes on the market. How is there a shortage?
people still got covid, how did the vaccine work? there were more households created than houses built. i can't say it any simpler than that
This data does not correlate to your premise of housing affordability. It just means that people own houses. Does this exclude owners of multiple homes? People buy homes every day. You’re introducing a strawman into the discussion.
Yes your posts are. The homeowner vacancy rate is still hovering near the lowest rate in the survey’s 66-year history (0.8%), signaling a supply-constrained housing market.
Home ownership was at its peak during the last bubble according to the graphic you posted. What exactly are you trying to demonstrate to us? As an aside, the description of the chart says nothing about multiple homeownership. Ok back to the main issue… perhaps I’m reading it wrong, but what value does this information really provide? The market has not crashed, so why would a consistent rate of home ownership be a valuable metric to indicate a strong housing market based upon good fundamentals when it was at its peak right before the last bubble burst. Are you trying to prove my point?
Vacancy rates at all time lows with ownership increasing leaves a record low supply of houses and high prices. It’s a tight market. Buyers are vetted unlike 2005. It’s no comparison. High prices don’t indicate a bubble. They indicate demand. In 2005 it was driven off unqualified loans. Not the current case.
Did you ignore the charts I posted that show when the interest rates went to historical lows in 2020 and how it directly correlates with the surge in prices? There was, for a couple short years, a relatively lower amount of houses “for sale”. There wasn’t, and still isn’t, a shortage of houses.
Im not arguing interest rates dont affect home selling, just like employment does and a whole host of other factors. It does not change the underlying availability of housing. You're talking about icing on the cake. The cake is the issue. There is a structural defect in housing availability from under-building for 2 decades combined with the OPs point which was zoning and regulation tightening are making it impossible to catch up. There is a long term undersupply of housing, regardless of rates, economy, employment rates which all have a short term impact on prices.
In order for this to be correct, there must be a corresponding population growth or increase in # of households at least somewhat proportional to the shortage you are suggesting. To boot, it must have began sometime around 2019-2020. Unless these conditions are met, I don't see how you can make the argument that the demand increased so quickly due to a housing shortage based on availability, rather than affordability.
I’m sorry but this is just wrong. I work for a company in the home building industry that directly supports new home builds. I’d go so far as to say 80%+ of all new homes in the US use our products, software, or automation to build them. Our management is deep into analyzing home-building trends, forecasts, demand, etc. because it’s our lifeblood. They say there is a housing shortage. The homebuilding industry says there is a housing shortage. Every study I’ve seen on home availability says there are housing shortages. Does that mean there are literally no houses for sale? Of course not. That misunderstands what a housing shortage is.
Again I’m not arguing short term blips dont occur. 2020 covid slowed stuff up, the exit sped things up. But here is a best fit line that reflects what i am saying. Doesn’t really suggest a pricing bubble to me.
Meant8me, the much bigger problem is corporate real estate. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecov...4518e124a7c&link=sfmw_tw&mod=mw_rss_bulletins
do you mean commercial real estate? yes, there is a lot of paper due for buildings that aren't generating the revenue they did pre-covid problem meet opportunity. there is a whole conversion market turning commercial space into residential. maybe not at what the owners have the building papered at but there is a number that it works at and the number is different everywhere and with each structure.
