Trades in florida have a hammer headed their way with all the land development permits that have waters of the US. Literally billions in sitework for development, roads, everglades restoration, flood prevention projects, schools, hospital expansions....all on hold with no understanding as to how to permit. Projects that started permitting with ACOE, were made to go to FDEP, and are now stuck in legal limbow. Some 6 - 8 years in the permitting process. Heavy site work guys will be first hit. Road and bridge projects not already permitted will be suspended. Billions in federal funds unable to be spent due to permit legal issues.
Both of these examples assume that demand isn't affected. If, as you said, the supply of houses decreased due to low interest rates, then is it not logical to also say that the demand decreased due to higher interest rates? If there are less eggs due to the bird flu and prices go up, does that price increase not decrease the demand at some point? Like above, you can't just choose arbitrary months of supply to indicate buyers', sellers' and balanced markets without somehow accounting for demand. Even with lower than historical inventory, demand is decreasing due to higher prices and higher interest rates. I think people are waiting on price reductions moreso than rate reductions. You could be right though. A lot of people are payment shoppers vs price shoppers. I don't have any evidence to support my guess, so I'm willing to concede that it's not a solid argument.
Top real-estate CEO sees decades of housing pain ahead: ‘What the Fed did will have a 30-year tail on it’ (msn.com) What that’s done is exacerbate an existing housing supply crunch. The country is missing anywhere between two million and seven million homes. The lock-in effect only made that worse by curbing for-sale inventory, despite there being some demand. The housing market froze, and existing home sales fell to their lowest point in almost 30 years. Things have improved since, but we’re not in the clear by any means, and there will likely be reverberations felt across the housing market for decades, by one chief executive’s prediction. “What the Fed did,” Redfin’s CEO Glenn Kelman said, “will have a 30-year tail on it. There’s going to be low supply for a long time to come unless America really gets [religious] again about building houses.” In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Kelman mentioned that supply went up for the first time in eight months in February; he called it a “tiny break in the inventory logjam.” And he does see that continuing to improve. .................................................................... Still, supply is a much larger and longer-term issue that won’t be solved once mortgage rates fall. The only way to really solve it is by building more homes. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said as much while testifying to Congress earlier this month. “The housing market is in a very challenging situation right now,” Powell said. “Problems associated with low rate mortgage [lock-in] and high [mortgage] rates and all that, those will abate as the economy normalizes and as rates normalize… But we’ll still be left with a housing market nationally, where there is a housing shortage.”
Not sure how if at all leased land houses factor in to the current situation but they are popping up all over florida now. Just on a brief skim of what they entail I'm not a fan. New neighborhoods with homes to buy on leased land.
It’s a combination of profit taking, people accepting that interest rates aren’t coming down anytime soon and just making the move they have been waiting to make, the market finally reaching its zenith, and insurance rates in Florida driving people out of the market etc.
You mean permanent structures on leased land, or trailer parks? Pretty sure that’s how trailer parks always worked. If you are talking about permanent developments on leased land… have any examples? I assume it’s like a 99 year lease, but that would still be interesting. So someone could theoretically just demolish whole neighborhoods after x # of years.
Sounds like how trailer parks operate but these are houses. Pardon my ignorance but I had never heard of houses on leased land before. There is a planned neighborhood behind mine that is going to use this model. There is at least one or two neighborhoods recently built in daytona that use this as well as a duplex community that was built but with only leased homes. Should You Buy A Home on Leased Land
We are downsizing and moving in the next year (both boys in college). Houses are going for crazing prices in my hood/school district. Been a homeowner most of my adult life, be weird not to own a home but it is time.
the long term capital return is great and the purchase price low. @200k for a nice home on a lot with $700 - $1200 per month lot rent. some on waterfront. manufactured housing but look nice and well built. the 20 - 30 year return on the lots is amazing when you add in allowable increases, expected turnover etc. patient money, ie pension funds, are big into trailer parks and similar land lease products
Prices won’t come down for years. Get in now at any price. Sure fire way to build wealth. It’s never gone wrong. Well, except a few times. lol.
depends where you are. Home prices have already fallen in some markets. Some markets are frothier than others now too. And home prices are only stable as long as the economy is. I’ve posted before the income to home price numbers, a whole lot of homeowners will be in trouble if we go south economically.
I’m seeing homes on the market longer, in and around my neighborhood. I receive a monthly real estate tracking document from one of the larger local realtors. It shows homes selling for more than the middle of last year but not as many. The inventory is increasing as are the prices per SQ foot.
So the solution is just “have a lot of money”? lol. You think everyone should have $600k-$1M cash to buy a house? I’m not saying that it’s not something that some people should do, but this is unrealistic.
