UK fan question -- FSU & the SEC/B1G

As an f$u fan, you downplay a major component of Big Whatever schools (AAU) and claim the networks are now driving the bus . . . yet your school seriously alienated ESPN by disclosing trade secrets and attacking their revenue stream (grant of rights). They've sued your school so why would they go to bat for f$u? Is there anything else helpful to your school not being an AAU school and still getting interest from the Big Whatever?

How do you get past your school having had its chance but ducking and dodging the tougher SEC for the far easier ACC until it no longer suited them?

Finally, what do you see as a reasonable path forward in their rather last ditch, desperation lawsuits for escaping grants of rights they voluntarily signed and happily took the money from for YEARS (again, until it no longer suited them) and why would either the SEC or Big Whatever want a school like that?

 

I think both conferences will both be interested in FSU along with those other schools. The question is what kind of share those schools will get.

I believe Notre Dame and maybe UNC are possibly the only 2 schools the Big-10 and SEC will fight over. Those 2 schools will probably command a full share from both conferences.

After that, I think you're likely to see schools like FSU, NCSU, UVA and Clemson may be be handled like UW and Oregon. They'll likely be absorbed into the Big-10 and SEC, but it will be at maybe a half share until/unless the networks renegotiate the conference TV contracts. The problem is those networks have already overextended and may not be able to offer much more money. The current SEC and Big-10 members aren't going to take a pay cut.

The schools like FSU and Clemson had better factor that reality into the math of their decision.

 

They’re use to weak conference games already.

 

They'll end up in the B1G for sure, the B1G XII!

 

Wouldn’t tgat be ironic? Pay to get out of one weak conference to go to an even weaker one.id guess they’ve had talks before they started this court crap and it wasn’t with the 12

 

I hope those convo's were mafia-level hush, hush then. If not I could see a humongous damages lawsuit if some other conference tampered with one of their members which caused their GOR and/or conference to blow up. I can see giant amounts of financial damages involved.

Personally, I think FSU has the hubris to think that one of those two leagues will pick them up just because they are "so great!" They don't really think that the courts are going to rule in their favor, they know they'll get destroyed if this ever gets in front of a judge....this is just maneuvering to hopefully force a settlement that is less than they will have to pay by their contract and will allow them out of the league. I don't think the B1G will automatically take them, although they might to get a bigger foothold in FL (all the top 10 FL HS players going to OSU says they already have a major one). I wouldn't envy FSU having to fly out play a bunch of Rutgers, Iowa, and Minnesota teams in sometimes bitter cold, but I bet those teams would love a trip to sunny FL in the late Fall.

 

If tv views are as important as many believe:
Ranking the most-watched college football programs in 2023
The numbers next to each school indicate the average number of viewers per week for a 12-week season.

Streaming numbers are included if available. Games with no available data are counted as zero.

1. Ohio State — 5.55M
2. Alabama — 5.08M
3. Michigan — 4.78M
4. Colorado — 4.50M
5. Georgia — 3.95M
6. Texas — 3.61M
7. Florida State — 3.58M
8. Notre Dame — 3.46M
9. Penn State — 3.31M
10. LSU — 2.85M
11. Southern Cal — 2.83M
12. Washington — 2.68M
13. Tennessee — 2.67M
14. Oklahoma — 2.40M
15. Nebraska — 2.39M
16. Florida — 2.12M
17. Auburn — 2.074M
18. Oregon — 2.067M
19. Texas A&M — 2.062M
20. Oregon State — 1.74M

 

I doubt a one year blip on the radar (cough, Colorado, cough) counts for much....over a period of time I believe it would matter very much since conference TV deals are based on the attractiveness of their product and TV wants the most viewing eyeballs to look at all those commercials.

 

From ACC :TV Viewership
"As for TV viewership in 2022, FSU was 15th overall in average viewership for the 2022 season averaging 2.03M viewers per week (up from 25th in 2021 at 1.27M). This number ranks second in the ACC behind Clemson at 2.59M, and far ahead of the third-place ACC team which was NC State at 43rd with an average weekly viewership of just 881k."
The UNC, UVa, and VT schools are just not factors fir TV.

 

It’s almost always a set up though

 

That’s what I’ve kind of thought and I don’t see the lure of Virginia, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina

 

While I think these ratings numbers have some value, I don't read too much into them. There's a difference between a casual/bandwagon viewer versus fan viewers. I watch every Gator game with full attention, win or lose. Then I watch other bigger games of interest each week, but with considerably less focus.

Clearly Colorado was skewed by Deion Sanders and is an outlier this year. I doubt they have the same interest level this season. FSU's viewership was probably dramatically skewed toward the end of the season when they had more national interest being undefeated and in contention for CFP. Same with Washington. Schools that are in contention, especially near the end of the season are always going to get a major TV ratings bump.

To me, what's a more accurate gauge of the viewership value of a program is to look at in a season where they aren't in the playoff mix. The top 7 of the teams on the list above all ended as top 10 at the end of the season. Notre Dame, PSU and LSU were top 15.

But then you have USC, Tennessee, Nebraska, Florida, Auburn and Texas A&M who all had top 20 viewership in what were pretty mediocre seasons. These are the schools that provide viewers regardless of how they do. I think the same would be the case for Bama, UGA, LSU, OU, Texas, OSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State and the majority of Big-10 and SEC schools in mediocre years.

I think FSU has very good loyal fans and will drive TV viewership for a conference, even in a down season. They might even be in the top 20-30 range. And I think their viewership would be helped dramatically by having a SEC or Big-10 schedule.