Koch’s are backing Haley

All may be true, but, where do you think at this point the small sliver of percentage differences the voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia (amongst a few other states) will vote.

Pubs will vote Trump
Dems will vote Biden.

It’s the moderate independents that will carry this election, like the others.

I think Biden was the easy vote last time around. This time, he is a much more difficult vote. I know I will vote for Biden because I believe Trump is morally unqualified for office. I know others share my “independent” political proclivities are not so sure.

If Biden is sincere that he wants to run to ensure Trump does not ever take office again, then maybe he needs to take a hard look at the fact that his age (and 3 years of border catastrophes) are very much jeopardizing the likelihood of victory. Maybe he should stand down and give someone else a chance to invigorate a disgruntled voting base to vote.

 

There are two groups that actually decide elections. The first is independents that party switch. The second is partisans that don't always vote or don't always vote for a major party. The second group is likely larger and more impactful than the first at this point, especially in swing states, where people often seem less likely to ticket split due to years of hundreds of millions in political advertising.

 

The election was partially tipped to Biden in 2020 by republicans who left the presidential line blank and still voted for GOP senators and congressmen. I think Biden will get even a bigger number of these this time around.

 

538 seemed to be saying that we shouldn't read too much into the Vermont results because the limited polls (which were also a little dated) did not anticipate how many Democratic voters came out to vote against Trump. I'm not sure why the polls wouldn't have anticipated that or been that far off. But even if that's true and says very little about how Republicans feel about Trump, might it at least signal that Democrats are motivated to defeat Trump?

 

I totally agree. Hilary lost in use she did not energize the Democrat base to go out and vote. People stayed home either because, generally speaking, the base didn’t necessarily like Hilary, and because the media forecasted an easy and sweeping victory, they just didn’t feel like getting out to vote. The Republican base, though, turned out in the same numbers as they did in 2012 and carried those swing states.

In 2020, each base as well as independents were all equally energized to vote- you either adored Trump or you didn’t and Biden was a nice, clean, choice to quiet the loudness and craziness of the Trump Regime.

In 2024, we will have the same Trumpeteers but they will be buttressed by the Republican base who will vote for anyone other than Biden, who is loathed by most Republicans. The question is whether Biden will energize and inspire enough people to vote, AND whether enough moderate swing votes will remain anti-Trump.

My best guess is that Biden is hurting the ticket and with him, and all of his “distractions,” the results are going to be very, very close, more so that 2020.

 

I think that now - after Super Tuesday, it is too late in the election cycle for Biden to step aside for another.

I have faith in trump that he will continue to insult and ridicule enough non-MAGA people that independents and normal Republicans will stay home or vote otherwise. Some may not be enthusiastic about voting for an indicted candidate.

 

I would agree with you in any other person, but for some reason, somehow, the more idiotic he becomes, the more he is revered. The more he morally regresses, the more votes he gets. I mean, steal from charities — he gets more votes. I truly will never understand the phenomenon.

 

Here's one interesting take.

I correctly predict presidents - why I don't expect Trump to thank me in 2024

Lichtman revealed the best chance of the Democrats winning in November is with Biden at the helm.

"One of my keys is incumbency, Biden secures that. Another one of my keys is an internal party battle, Biden secures that," he said.

"It means six of the remaining 11 keys would have to fall to predict a White House defeat.

"If Biden doesn’t run, the party loses the incumbency and the party battle key as there is no heir apparent.

 

Something a lot of people don't understand is how little people pay attention to politics most of the time.

A recent poll showed that only 24% of the respondents knew that Trump had a hand in dismantling Roe. 14% thought Biden did it because it happened on his watch.

A campaign is also an educational journey for the voters. However, the best bang for your buck is when they start paying attention which will largely be this fall.

 

I'm going to have a slightly different take on it. I think the two parties differ in how you can divide them up. Republicans, at this point, can be defined by their reaction to Trump. There are the Pro-Trump Republicans (about 3/4 of the party) and the Anti-Trump Republicans (about 1/4 of the party). The question on turnout and enthusiasm on that side is whether Trump can increase, after January 6 and years of stolen election rhetoric, his share with the Anti-Trump groups. They might not like Biden, but they didn't like Biden in 2020 either (this is somewhat endogenous, as the Republicans that were okay with Biden largely stopped being Republicans and have begun the process of political realignment). Are they more motivated today to show up to vote against Biden? This is an empirical question that we will have to see as the campaign develops.

On the Democratic Party side, people complain about Biden's age, but I don't see a lot of push for any specific alternatives. That suggests that partisan and weakly partisan Democrats complaining about age are sort of engaging in fairly empty complaining. I think the bigger problem for him are the divides developing between members of the Democratic coalition. Two very big divides to address: Muslim (and some college-aged) voters and Jewish (and older, Pro-Israel) voters and their reaction to the conflict in Gaza (and their reactions to each other) and voters of Mexican heritage (as well as upper-class South American heritage) versus voters of Central American heritage and their reactions to immigration. He needs to figure out how to bring all of these groups, who have admittedly disparate interests, back under the tent. That, much more than Biden's age, seems to be the big concern for Biden in holding together his coalition.

Things working in his favor from the last 4 years:

Ending Roe has mobilized younger women and furthered a substantial advantage with this group. They seem to also be very hard to poll, which is one of the explanations for 2022.

The IVF stuff was a gift to Democrats and an easy point by which to attempt to cleave off both some religious Anti-Trumpers (by making Trump come out in favor of IVF) and (more substantially) Anti-Trump Suburban Republican women, who recognize that this happened because of him.

The herding behavior of Republicans. Moving to more ideological and partisan states harms the electoral college importance of partisan Republicans.

The continued aging of the Republican base.

 

Let's see here. I should stay home and let the Dems burn down our entire country to the ground, becasue of that meanie DJT and how he talks to the haters? LMFAO! Only a mentally challenged or emotionally challenged person would do that.

Edited: Poor Orange_and_Bluke... Lol...

 

OK, but at least try to get out once in a while, even for just a few minutes. The sun and fresh air would do you good.

 

Just a guess, by November 5 many more voters will be aware of Trump's role in dismantling Roe thanks to the Donald himself.