Could be there’s a “standoff” but there is still a housing deficit - i.e. there are a lot of sidelined buyers that can’t afford to purchase homes. To your comment about there being more than zero inventory, yes, that will always be the case. I work in the housing industry and my company is directly reliant on new home starts so we monitor housing deficits closely. It’s not a myth. This has been to our benefit and we’ve been having banner years the past several years and this year is starting off at record numbers.
In Weston (a small suburb west of Ft Lauderdale) it looks like home values probably peaked a few months. For the first time since approx. 2010, home prices in my neighborhood are starting to drop.
Well... isn't that what I'm saying as well? There are plenty of homes for sale, but they are not at affordable prices. So... is it really that there is a deficit of houses, or is there a deficit of houses priced affordably to their target audience? I'd argue that there isn't a lack of inventory... unless the assumption is that if more houses were for sale that sellers would reduce prices. But if that is the case, then that means that the current prices are not the right prices. What I believe is that many sellers are simply testing the market to see if a buyer comes along that will bite at the high price. Most don't mind waiting for a full-price offer and would simply pull the listing if it didn't meet their target profit goal.
I think you are exactly right. I think the data says housing is short because there is x many houses listed, and x-plus many people looking for houses. So, in essences yes, a shortage, but the point you make is there are plenty of houses, just not at the price point that many buyers are able or willing to pay.
It’s deeper than that. Housing construction has lagged new household formation since the crash. We haven’t caught up. The US housing market is short 6.5 million homes | CNN BusinessThe US housing market is short 6.5 million homes
No, I don’t think that’s correct. There will always be listings just like there is always unemployment. There is no functionally achievable zero in either case.
I don't want to speak for Murph but I think we are both saying yes there may be a shortage but until we have no houses on the market, there are houses to be purchased. Maybe not your price range, neighborhood, town or even state you might desire, but there are plenty of houses for sale today. I'm not doubting the data, just making what seems to be a factual statement also.
Sure, in the same way there are Taylor Swift tickets on the secondary market. There are four classes of people in that scenario - those that have tickets (homes) and are not selling. Those that have tickets and are selling (a small percentage) Those that can outbid the vast majority of seekers for those being sold. Those that are out of luck based on the price and availability of what’s out there. pretty much the same as housing. There is inventory. But it doesn’t nearly meet supply.
I don't believe that "zero" is what we are talking about. We are discussing whether there is "no inventory" which would colloquially mean "very little". When we had the toilet paper "shortage" during COVID-19, there was still plenty of toilet paper. It's just that people hoarded it and then resellers started asking exorbitant prices for it. So, just like toilet paper, there is plenty of housing available, but it is in the hands of people who want much more for it than it would be worth in normal times. You actually just proved my point. There is no "zero" and by extension, there really isn't "a shortage". Like I said, there is a shortage of affordably priced homes.
Most of us are not talking about zero but that is what you are using as the basis for saying there is still inventory and thus not a shortage.
So... are we in a giant housing bubble that's ready to burst? Or will this just get worse? How the freak do you disagree with a question... clown haters?
Highly unlikely. We’re building 3M less homes per year now than the last bubble and we have 25% of the inventory we had last time. The conditions aren’t there, at least at this time.
Or we can restrict building of new homes. And we let the banks continue to buy up all the houses already built... so they control the rent and the high value of homes. That makes it even harder for average people to buy or even rent houses. Question: Are you talking about property tax cuts?
No, it's not what I'm using as the basis of my argument. I'm saying there are a lot of houses for sale, and we do not have a shortage. I had to address "zero inventory" because people are saying we are millions of homes short or deficit. If we were "short" or "in deficit" we would be at zero. They are the ones who introduced that into the conversation, not me. The most I would concede is that we have "less of a surplus" compared to some other points in history.
So if there is one gallon of gas for sale there isn’t a shortage? When there is a shortage, prices go up until there is only enough demand for the product that is available. Prices are high because there is not a lot of competition for buyers. That is a shortage.. not running out of all houses. This whole thread is about the prices of homes which is related to a shortage of competition for buyers… not that there are zero homes. Dr Denslow would not be impressed.
I don't expect you to be hitting me with come on mans while having a friendly discussion, but that's neither here nor there. I think there is subjectivity on how people define shortages. The fact that there are so many houses for sale makes me reluctant to say we have low inventory. I mean... we're only talking about the supply side. What about the demand? The prices are so high that demand has dwindled, and therefore the supply is matched to the current demand. The shortage would have to be tied to the demand, right? So if people were out there snatching up every overpriced house, I think we'd have a supply issue. Since that is not happening and inventory is remaining stable, I'd say it's not simply an inventory issue.
Question for those active markets, are @above asking” offers still as common as they were a year + ago?
Wow. Blast from the past. I never took a class from him but I know many folks who did from the eighties when I was in school.
