This spike was driven by interest rates that were artificially low, which caused a buying frenzy and people paying way more because the money was cheap. There is plenty of inventory available… it’s just listed at ridiculously inflated prices.
Of course the water just disappears and never floods the old hood down the road or has sinkholes open up in the holding ponds. Or washes into the Gulf or Atlantic and causes miles of toxic blooms. Florida has been damaged enough by building on wetlands and people know better these days and it should not be done. Also even if those structures are built high enough to avoid flooding they will still be required by law to have flood insurance if they are located on a 100 year floodplain and have a mortgage.
Agree, there are way more multi family units for apartments getting built around here than single family homes in suburban developments.
The selling price of homes in other states and areas cause a lot of the boom in Central Florida as the house were cheaper here than they were in South Florida and say New Your state. People were already getting low interest rates rates before the cost of building went sky high and home values doubled or more in many cases. Just the cost of building material and labor has caused home values to double in the last 5 years. It also caused the amount of insurance that people are required to carry on their home to be much higher and helped to increase homeowner rates. Your home insurance is based on the cost to replace the home and most companies will require that it is insured at 100% replacement cost. The same homes that were insured for 150k 6 years ago are insured for close to 300k today not because of market value but because of building replacement cost.
What is the exact fundamental you are betting on? Doesnt seem to be housing supply and demand or the stock market, or company profits, or unemployment, or GDP growth. Just curious.
So what was the FDEP role in this? If I understand correctly, they were ones actually keeping the developments out of wetlands... or at least forcing them to mitigate. So what now? The ACOE takes over that role, and it goes even slower and probably with more restrictions, reviews, inspections, and costs, because they are federal? There has been for decades a push by developers to buy state reps that will loosen wetland requirements, I can't imagine this is the outcome they wanted? Who wins, here?
As I posted above, income to housing ratio. The median family income in Florida is 67k or so, the median home price is over 400k, so it’s around 6-1. I haven’t looked but it’s probably even worse for renters given what I have seen. But 4-1 or so has been the historical norm. Between that number, current interest rates and the insurance mess in Florida, you likely have a whole lot of people who can’t weather an economic storm if it comes.
I sold my condo last April because I saw what the state of Florida was requiring in 2025 and sooner. Also figured the prices would drop as these requirements became law. And then there were the hurricanes and stinky red tide, 1K per month association dues that went up about 200 dollars this year. (20%), who knows what other increases. Our insurance increased about 40% in 2023. That was another red flag for me. There are new state requirements in 2025 where you cannot waive reserves. A reserve study and structural inspection is also required for any building 3 stories or over. Time to Pay the Piper: New Mandatory Reserve Requirements for Florida Condominiums | Bilzin Sumberg's New Miami Blog | Insights & Events | Bilzin Sumberg
Very true, and we can’t look at housing like we look at other inflationary categories. We should look at housing prices like we look at stocks. Yes, over time they will go up in value, but there will be many dips and crashes along the way.
What is causing you to assume I use my gut? That is a loaded question which assumes something I did not state.
Because people still have to move or downsize. But now there might be 20 people bidding on that house, the rest are forced to rent until it evens out.
This is actually the world I work in which world is that? investments or housing construction? how does any of that impact the demand for housing and the costs to build a new one? if people default and have to move out, where do they go? into rental housing that is already in short supply? with the tremendous shortage in housing (see post 14) I can see investors buying the houses to turn into rental units about as fast as they come up for sale
because people move. out of town, across town, downsize, upsize, into assisted living, etc. some are selling ones they have held for rental units.
I’m not going to out exactly what i do, maybe after I retire. It spans a bunch of housing sectors though. But rental demand sinks in that scenario too. The renters living on their edge are no longer renters, at least at the level they were, so that demand shrinks. Homeowners who default will have a hard time finding good places because landlords don’t want someone who has already defaulted once. So who is racing in to buy rentals in that scenario, and can they get nearly what they got before to make it worthwhile or justify the home price? Yes fundamentally there is still a shortage. But a shortage in a good economy has a very different economic impact than one in a poor stretch.
no, the runoff is collected into onsite lakes and retention areas and then released to a defined outfall at a rate that is determined by the water management district for the individual drainage basin that it is located in. In some parts of the state without outfall routes to the coast or rivers that lead to the coasts (Gainesville is one), the water is collected and infiltrates and has to recover within a set time period to be ready for the next storm. if you build in an area with a 100 year floodplain elevation you can get a LOMR to remove the structure and not require flood insurance provided you are at least 1' above the FEMA elevation noted for that area. blooms are largely the result of nutrients flushed from big ag as agriculture has no requirements to do nutrient removal, just mild suggestions that they should. what ag is allowed to discharge should be criminal. I know, I do water quality reports (or at least manage people that do) as part of what I do for a living. Our firm worked with Harvey Harper, who is considered the grandfather of nutrient loading calculations, to write the first nutrient loading rules 20 + years ago. I can build a 40 acre site with a 20 acre building and 10 acres of parking etc and if it is a warehouse, I have to build an extensive stormwater management system. If that building is an indoor greenhouse that meets Ag requirements under DACS, I don't have to do squat for stormwater treatment. Same building, same parking, but AG is a get out of jail free card. wetland impacts must be mitigated for, either onsite by wetland restoration or creation or by buying credits from a wetland bank where an operator has a large aggregation of low quality wetlands that they clean up and maintain exotic free. Large, contagious wetland areas that are restored have a much higher functional value in terms of water treatment and wildlife habitat than small, pocketed wetlands. Also note that what is called a wetland these days would surprise you. If there is a cow wallow in the middle of the pasture where the watering trough used to be and the cows wallowed it by rolling in the cool mud, that is a wetland. if there is a roadside ditch that gets wet when it rains, that is often called a wetland.
an occupation that is top secret? not following any logic there but you do you. so I'll ask again, where do the people move to when they move out? do you foresee massive homeless camps or where will they go if they can't afford what is being offered? perhaps the US has to do like Europe and massively downsize what a standard living unit consists of. Instead of a single 2500 SF house we turn that into 3 - 800 SF units.
