This podcast episode of Sam Harris with Peter Zeihan is one of the more interesting podcast episodes I have ever listened to. I don’t know enough about him to assess his views and outlooks but they definitely make a lot of sense at least on the surface. episode definitely worth a listen. Among things I recall: - An overlying theme is demographics and the near catastrophic impact it will have on most developed nations, excluding the US. Europe including Germany is on a demographic death spiral. - Russia is one of those nations, and from his perspective it is inevitable that Russia will continue to pursue Eastern European countries including Poland. Doing so decreases their defensible lane border dramatically Otherwise Russia May cease to function as a country within 15 years, because internal factions that control energy transmission will tear it apart. He sees the chance of limited use of nukes in Europe as higher than normal. - China is even in worse shape. The already bad demographics keep getting worse. Xi has eliminated all opposing factions and pretty much exascerbated their inevitable failure. You could be looking at eventual famine. Their industrial export base is moving out. They may or may not invade Taiwan, but even if they succeed without firing a shot it will just accelerate their isolation and internal implosion. - Gives some pretty interesting views on the Middle East. The most interesting is how he see Israel’s biggest threat as its religious right, who he basically calls deadbeats, who don’t want to work or serve but want to run the government and are utterly incompetent. - The US outlook is much better. Our demographics are much more favorable and we don’t have the geopgraphic challenges others have. We are in the process of reindustrializing which will lead to economic growth, although it could be inflationary at times. - while he considers himself a fiscal conservative he doesn’t see our US debt as catastrophic a situation as some do, he cites the Japan example of having 4 times the amount of debt on a per gdp basis and they can still function (I’ve said as much numerous times here) - he doesn’t see any scenario where something overtakes the US dollar. All of the theoretical alternatives are horrible and are in decline (I’ve said as much numerous times here). - He sees little chance Trump will win, unless Biden dies are gets gravely ill. He looks at 2022 midterms as a predictor and that independents are turning away from Trump. He predicts Trump only takes 15 states and he even loses FL and TX. I hope he is right but think he is wrong, at least to the degree. My take is, with the last prediction as an example, he makes big and bold and possibly exaggerated predictions, nonetheless his insights into the underlying trends are informative.
I predict children will be born & raised independently from family structures. I don't think they'd replace the more traditional way, but will be in addition to it. It sounds dystopian & gross*, but it need not be. Bets against human innovation are almost always sucker bets.+ * many kids have had disastrous upbringings in the normal fam setting, so it may be a push + The Simon–Ehrlich wager was a 1980 scientific wager between business professor Julian L. Simon and biologist Paul Ehrlich, betting on a mutually agreed-upon measure of resource scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990. The widely-followed contest originated in the pages of Social Science Quarterly, where Simon challenged Ehrlich to put his money where his mouth was. In response to Ehrlich's published claim that "If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000" Simon offered to take that bet, or, more realistically, "to stake US$10,000 ... on my belief that the cost of non-government-controlled raw materials (including grain and oil) will not rise in the long run." Simon challenged Ehrlich to choose any raw material he wanted and a date more than a year away, and he would wager on the inflation-adjusted prices decreasing as opposed to increasing. Ehrlich chose copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten. The bet was formalized on September 29, 1980, with September 29, 1990, as the payoff date. Ehrlich lost the bet, as all five commodities that were bet on declined in price from 1980 through 1990, the wager period.[1] Simon–Ehrlich wager - Wikipedia Ha ha. In 1968, Ehrlich published The Population Bomb, which argued that mankind was facing a demographic catastrophe with the rate of population growth quickly outstripping growth in the supply of food and resources. Simon was highly skeptical of such claims, so proposed a wager, telling Ehrlich to select any raw material he wanted and select "any date more than a year away," and Simon would bet that the commodity's price on that date would be lower than what it was at the time of the wager.
“In every age everybody knows that up to his own time, progressive improvement has been taking place; nobody seems to reckon on any improvement in the next generation. We cannot absolutely prove that those are in error who say society has reached a turning point – that we have seen our best days. But so said all who came before us and with just as much apparent reason. ... On what principle is it that with nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?” ― Thomas Babington Macaulay, Critical, historical and miscellaneous essays Volume 1 my ans to his Q: pessimism. no, irrational pessimism. & with social media, 24 news cycles etc. pessimism seems to be on steroids
This is the one thing IMO which explains the anger and frustration emanating from the right wing. Kids raised in a loving and healthy environment are kinder. The far right is not.
In the near term, the US’ demographics are faring more poorly than Russia’s. Ex: infant mortality is higher in the US than in Russia and the U.S. has quietly overtaken Russia with the highest suicide rate in the world.
FAIL. very short run. Russia -.19% pop growth for 2023, US .53% pop growth. Dictionary Definitions from Oxford Languages · Learn more dem·o·graph·ics /ˌdeməˈɡrafiks/ noun statistical data relating to the population and particular groups within it. "the demographics of book buyers"
Don’t let your deep ancestral hatred for Russia blur your reading comprehension. I specifically mentioned infant mortality and suicide rate. I was being merciful as I could have thrown in ponderous fatness.
FAIL. FULL QUOTE! "In the near term, the US’ demographics are faring more poorly than Russia’s. Ex: infant mortality is higher in the US than in Russia and the U.S. has quietly overtaken Russia with the highest suicide rate in the world." but, but, Time of Possession.
Other than Trump, I don’t call anyone deplorable. I won’t, however, back off from the assertion that the far right is by and large angry and mean-spirited.
I’m going to stack my predictions up against Zeihan’s … China will not collapse in 15 years. Russia will not collapse in 15 years. US will not collapse in 15 years. THAT SAID, the is the leading superpower in decline. And in well less than 15 years it will no longer be able to exert its hegemony around the world. I’ll check back in 15 years.
Making Sense is the only podcast I pay for, and I just listened to this episode. Sam's intro was spot on about this guy coming across as so confident that it makes you want to buy into it. I don't know; I'm usually more skeptical of people that come across so sure of their positions. I'd be curious to read about his track record of past predictions. That said, he is obviously super knowledgeable and it was a very interesting listen. I'm going to have to look more into Bretton Woods, as that was a blind spot for me.
