Oddsmakers: President Trump now holds better than double the odds to defeat Crooked Joe Biden

Is there a gop without trump?

 

This time in 2016, Trump still had somewhat longer odds to win the RNC (11/4), but they had been decreasing from earlier numbers of over +1000. I think even once he was nominated, Hillary was still a significant favorite, and that dropped over the next few months. In 2020, Biden was largely a slight favorite (if I recall correctly), but on election night, Trump had some very strong betting numbers suggesting a victory and then they dropped rapidly. All this to say, sometimes the betting numbers are right on, sometimes they're way off. Fun to watch, regardless.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

Agree with you ‘vegas' odds - point spreads, odds to win, etc are far, far from infallible. But they are one of the best predictors of a outcome. In reviewing those odds, Trump is roughly -110 avg. Which a $100 bet wins approx $90. And a -110 betting odds equates to a roughly just over 50% chance of winning. A big factor is, its all candidates. Some sites have odds on "Dem Rep" (whoever that is) vs "Repub Rep" (whoever that is). it might be even closer odds.

But these odds are at this point. In 2016 HRC was like a 5-1 odds fav going into final week of election. Trump was favorite going into 2020. And after Jan 6 his odds were like 50-1. Odds can and will change a lot. but yes, interesting at this point, trump has the best odds of any candidate.

I also check use out below to track odds on politics

PredictIt


Side note - imo the biggest recent Vegas miss on odds was uga vs fsu. Fsu had no qb, pouting and opting out. Uga was pissed and most all hotshots playing. That line opened w Uga -13. (It went up but not fast enough)

 

Good point on other candidates since the Dem odds are effectively split between Biden, M. Obama, Newsome, and Harris while Trump is only split with Haley. The limits can also have a big impact if these are limited at something like $500 since sharps won't be able to move the lines with larger bets and the candidate with more volume (in smaller amounts) if going to have the odds skewed in their favor.

Honestly, it doesn't make logical sense for Trump to be such a big favorite. He lost to Biden once and since then has had a plethora of legal issues. Despite what some may claim about that making Trump more popular, I only see that being the case with people who were going to vote for him anyway. I don't see many casual politics followers in a few months going "you know I wasn't going to vote for that Trump guy but it's so unfair that he's been charged with all these crimes. Let's put him back in the white house." On top of that, you have a not insignificant number of Republican primary votes saying they won't vote for Trump in the general election.

Nothing is guaranteed, but that's a pretty big uphill battle for Trump. He probably needs either some health issues from Biden or severely depressed turnout among Dem voters (both possible).

 

One and the same these days. He owns that party lock, stock, and barrel.

 

totally agree, they can really miss. i.e. the repubs keeping the senate in 2022 was even more of a fav. And harder to change as it was the result of multiple outcomes. vs only one outcome for trump- if something happens to him, health, etc.

I follow the odds as it fascinating what moves them. e.g. something will come out in the news they think will impact the election but the odds barely change. his live-mic recording in 2016 did move the odds. Of course the biggest futures market in the world is - the stock market. Generally an attempt to predict what will occur. We'll see what happens to the market right after a Trump win

 

I think so,maybe even a majority. They are just mostly silent and overrun by the screamers and finger pointers.

 

Sunday night (Feb 26) I asked Robert Barnes what he thought the true odds were for Trump picking Ben Carson for VP. He said, " 50%. At least 40%> And it's paying far more than that in the betting markets.,"

If you live in Florida you might have a hard time figuring out how to legally bet online. If a moderator tells me I can tell you I will.

 

you should check out the book "Wisdom of Crowds". regarding futures markets and pros/cons of groups predicting outcomes. quite fascinating.

 

Sadly, they've become one and the same. The remaining Republican candidate who most resembles Romney, McCain, the Bushes and Ronald Reagan is getting her ass kicked by Trump. According to exit polls the overwhelming majority of self-identified Republicans who voted in the South Carolina primary supported Trump's narrative that the 2020 election was stolen.

 

I would most likely vote for her in the general. But I’m definitely ABT.

 

Thanks Pit. This is one of my favorite subjects, so I really can’t explain why I’ve never read this book. I’ve read other books on this topic, such as the extremely similar and much less heralded Infotopia by Cass Sunstein. I really do need to get on the wisdom.

 

The betting markets were pretty accurate leading into 2020. Election night they went totally off base because trump voters didn’t understand the concept of a same day return vs an early one.
What I wonder this time around though, is whether the constant narrative of “stolen” (despite zero credible evidence and countless court losses), has basically made Trump supporters immune to the real possibility of another actual loss and is skewing the betting. If they believe he’s actually won twice, why would they consider the possibility of a loss now?
The polls right now do favor trump a bit, but the number of pitfalls for him in the next 8 months are almost too many to count. And historically, early polling has favored republicans anyway. Polls don’t come into their near final line til summer sometime, after the conventions. I would bet that’s also when the smart money will start to come in on the betting side too.
So let’s see where we are in August. But I guess it’s fun to speculate one way or the other.

 

OP lost a lot on a Matt Bevins bet. He should know better.

 

The only thing stolen in 2020 was the last shred of common sense of a cult masquerading as a political party.

 

Thanks for the threat assessment.

 

Just getting back in Too Hot. Appreciate you self identifying as clueless, saves me time down the road.

 

If it’s between these two it will be Trump. Fortunately for the US, but unfortunately for republicans, Biden will not run. I’m hoping Trump won’t either. Because Biden is the only person trump can beat