Oddsmakers: President Trump now holds better than double the odds to defeat Crooked Joe Biden

Do you think this is reflective of the true odds to be President or is it more reflective of the bets they're receiving? I'd propose that Trump supporters are more likely to bet on this kind of thing and these are the types of bets that sportsbooks limit to smaller wagers meaning more experienced gamblers are unable to bet enough to even out the odds.

 

The betting odds track the polls. This poll was taken in late July of 1988. Polls and the same probably applies to betting odds do not become meaningful until after Labor Day.
Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll (Published 1988)
This is from September 2016
Las Vegas Gamblers Bet Hillary Clinton Will Win the Presidency

 

Corrected the first sentence for you
Many Trump voters halfway expect are under the delusion that the election to will be stolen again.

 

We're still waiting on your election prediction

 

I think you're applying a bit too much rational thought to Trump bettors given that I made decent money off them last election cycle on PredictIt where they continued to bet that Trump would be President and win Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, etc even after the votes had been counted.

 

He's absolutely certain that Trump will win and the results will prove that his prediction was correct. Trump will either actually win the election in which case he will be correct or if Trump loses in his mind Trump actually won the election but it was stolen from him in which case Trump still won the election even if the votes as counted by the states are different.

 

Only Republicans steal elections. Just ask Hillary.

 

The last thing Democrats want to do is "save our democracy." They are fine with election rigging, Deep State censorship of social media using AI programs. They love MSM censorship and Deep State psy-ops designed to empower the managerial class, not the people. As Rush Limbaugh said, they are "mind number robots? Those who protested the election fraud are maliciously prosecuted in Soviet-style show trials and sentenced to months or years in jail for non-violrnt "crimes" by corrupt, hateful Democrat judges. They are abused by guards, thrown in solitary, commit suicide (1 case) If Navalny was an American he'd have been tjrown in jail with the Jan 6 "offenders."Democrats don't care that the Deep State and Obama spied on Trump. Their party and RINO Republicans have traitorously supported open borders for decades while making working folks pay for it. They've turned the US into the USSR.. They don't want democracy they want power.

When did Americans vote for open borders? And you call our country a democracy?

Almost everything goes in cycles. Left-wing aithoritarianism will be checked only by right-wing authoritarianism. The end of democracy is approaching.
."Democracy" is dying. Monarchy, rule by "kings" are authoritarian rule are returning. Depopulation will degrade wealth around the world. Wealth creates democracies, not the other way around. One day global wealth will be on the upswing again and democracies will form again. . Once again they will age like people do. They start young, people gain knowledge and they thrive. Eventually their arteries clog up. Women stop having babies. There are too maby laws. People become lazy. They die from wothin.

America could rebound if it gets a new heart. An Elon Musk-like monarchy might do the trick. The Soros-Obsma-neocan-Deep State model will cause the US to fracture and collapse.

Maybe some of you should gamble on sports and politics. When you do that you need to get rid of your emotion based motivated thinking. If you don't you will probably go broke.

 

I think prediction markets are the best tool we have for predicting future outcomes for the reasons you are stating. That said, even the best we have is quite imperfect, as a look back at 2016 would show.

That said, much more important a puzzle than who will win is who should win. I fully believe that Trump may win the election, but it would still be a solemn day if it did happen.

 

That was a lovely little rant (especially the part about how everyone else is too emotion based after a whole bunch of emotional nonsense), but what's your take on the current odds for the election? Do you think those are about right? See any value in Trump, Biden, or the other candidates? This is why you joined the board, right?

 

“Stolen again” … how can Trumpeteers expect to be taken seriously when they push lie after lie after lie after lie?

 

Didn't the betting markets favor Biden over Trump in 2020? If that's the case, and assuming the betting markets are predicatively useful and credible, wouldn't the fact that they "predicted" the 2020 election accurately undercut Trump's claim that it was stolen from him?

 

I remember. She was so pissed off that she refused to concede, challenged the election results in multiple court cases and when her legal challenges failed she urged her supporters to go the Capitol to prevent Congress from certifying the results of the election.

 

The RINO station, Newsmax, is fact checking Trump on the election. Wont matter, rubes are rubes.

Newsmax Host Reads Disclaimer After Trump Rants About Voter Fraud: ‘Network Believes the Results Were Legal and Final’


After Trump’s speech, which Newsmax aired in its entirety, Higbie greeted viewers.

“I never get tired of that guy,” he said before adding a caveat from a sheet of paper he was holding up. “The president mentioned in his speech the 2020 elections. Newsmax as a network believes the results were legal and final.”

 

Even Brett Baier checked Trump on the claim, recently.

 

GOP: if we win it was fair and square, if we lose it was stolen. Grow the hell up.

 

I think, to be fair, it’s not the GOP. It’s Trumpeteers.