It looks like the nail biter states that decided the 2020 election are all polling well beyond margin of error in President Trump's favor: Nevada +7 Trump Arizona +4.5 Trump Georgia +7 Trump Michigan +5.1 Trump Latest Bloomberg poll out of Wisconsin has Trump +5. It's going to be morning in America soon again, you all, just hang in there.
Since when did polls on Feb 1 predict the winner of a POTUS election? And one huge thing each one of these polls are showing. Trump isn't getting 50+ in these states, meaning there are a still large number of undecideds. In AZ, Trump's highest number if 45% in all polls. What this means is there are a large number of swing voters both candidates could possibly win over and take the election. And between today and election day, if the economy continues to do well, and Trump continues to spend time and money in court, it's going to be difficult for Trump to convince these swing voters.
He's going to win. Too bad Dems don't run a viable option to the R's horrible option. It's handed to them on a platter. Oh well.
Starting these threads about how well Trump is polling make you look worried more than confident. Are you trying to convince us, or yourself?
That Trump is ahead in any poll at any time is pretty worrisome. Quite incredible, really. Biden is that bad of an option..
Are you predicting that Trump will win the election? I've noticed that you continue to dodge my question
COVID lockdowns and George Floyd happened in the time window between February 2020 and the 2020 elections. It looked all but certain that Trump was going to win last time in February 2020. I would be willing to bet the Democrats have some kind of gameplan to flip the polls again.
Here's a good article from a political advisor about polls this far out from election. If polls this time of a year picked the winner, Reagan, W. Bush, and Obama all would have lost reelection! But their respective opponents never had over 50%, meaning all their campaigns had to do was convince undecideds, rather than flip people over to their side. Not simple, but easier than flipping people for sure. To use the horse racing analogy, we haven't rounded the final turn yet, and Biden is in good stalking position to grab the inside position and win the race. Trump may be ahead now, but he has court appearances and lawyers to pay. And Biden? He can potentially bank on a good economy and the Fed potentially lowering interest rates between now and Nov.
Lol, based on what was Trump "all but certain to win in February?" There was one poll released in February 2020 that had Trump ahead of Biden (17 had Biden ahead). Seems like you are creating a narrative out of nothing. Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election - Wikipedia
Very true. What's unique about this race is that both men are known quantities as POTUS. We had 4 years of Trump, 4 years of Biden. It's a what you see is what you get election. We don't have to speculate about what one candidate might do policy wise, etc etc. Biden being in a hole like this, despite <4% unemployment is astonishing. Also, even the Trump haters have to recognize that his rise in the polls clearly correlates to the indictments and the leftists government can't really back out of those now. I mean, I guess they could, but then you'd have even more apathy on the Democrat side. I'm not sure there's a big comeback play in the cards here for Biden. It would take something like a major health setback for Trump or something of that ilk. If they actually convicted Trump for something, I'm guessing he wins Reagan-Mondale style based on how the public has viewed things thus far.
The good thing about a Trump win is that he is ineligible for reelection (no he doesn’t get a re-do). Inserting Biden in between an alternative universe 8 year period likely stopped some longer term damage. Trump will be a lame duck president the day he arrives at the White House with no real agenda other than to pardon himself and tax breaks for someone. Maybe Thomas and Alito can retire. America!
Trying to argue. When was the last time polls in Feb predicted a Nov election winner? Wasn't there supposed to be a giant red wave two years ago? That's what the polls were saying Feb, 2022. The election is far from over. What Biden needs to do is convince the undecideds that voting for anyone but him is a vote for Trump, which would be a disaster. Trump can't rest either. He needs to convince these undecideds he's better than Biden, all while spending a lot of time, energy, and money on court cases that may not cast him in a great light. Trump won in 2016 because Hillary couldn't convince the undecideds, and many of them voted third party. This could happen again this year. Like Hillary, Biden isn't the most likable candidate. One thing Biden has Hillary didn't? A Trump Presudency isn't a theory, and while you might think it was great, plenty of reasons not to like Trump too.
