Agreed, 10 SEC wins gets us in. Last night's win was huge, need to follow it up with a win on Saturday. If we can get to 5-5 with 8 games remaining, we'll give ourselves a chance. Would mean we pick up a Quad 1 win against UK, A&M or Auburn. Final 8, need to get at least 5 of them, which is manageable, imo: LSU, Vandy 2x, Missouri, @ UGA, Bama 2x.
At least we broke even last night in SEC play at 3-3. I think we will be in suspense right up until the SEC tourney.
Now that we are 3-3 with a HUGE last two wins, if I was a betting man, I would guess: vs. (78) Georgia- Q3-- WIN @ (22) Kentucky- Q1-- LOSS @ (39) Texas A&M- Q1-- WIN vs. (8) Auburn- Q1-- WIN vs. (91) LSU- Q3-- WIN @ (78) Georgia- Q2-- WIN @ (7) Alabama- Q1-- LOSS vs. (234) Vanderbilt- Q4-- WIN vs. (126) Mizzou- Q3-- WIN @ (51) South Carolina- Q1-- LOSS vs. (7) Alabama- Q1-- WIN @ (234) Vanderbilt- Q3-- WIN That'd put us at 12-6. Obviously we could easily lose @ TAMU, vs. Auburn, or vs. Alabama which would knock us down to 10-8, but I tend to think we steal one of these tough road games and hold serve at home if we play well. In that 10-8 scenario, the thing that is scary is that we'd still have zero Q1 wins. Maybe UGA could sneak into the top 75 or Pitt could sneak into the top 50 to get us to a single Q1 win, but I think Nashville would still be very critical if we go 10-8 with no Q1 wins. Each year is different, but look at Rutgers' resume last year and they were left out. It was much more impressive than ours.
It’s hard to say unless I were to rewatch games. Statistically, the losses we had are hard to blame on free throw percentage with the exception of UK, but the answer really needs to be examined in context. If you hit 30-30 free throws but miss the last 4 at the end of the game and lose by 1 point, it matters when you miss as opposed to how often. Also, did your miss change momentum or some other intangible factor? But on the surface, I’d say you are correct to ask this question and that the statistics alone do not support my previous statement.
That makes sense; in the Virginia game (for example), we're looking at a miss by Kugel (3:41, trailing by 2); a miss by Haugh (2:13, tied), and a miss by Clayton (0:51, trailing by 2). But only Kugel's and Haugh's are worth picking on because they were a combined 2 for 5 at the line. Clayton had our other miss, but he was 5 for 6. Here's the thing, though. On 2 of our 2nd half misses, we got the offensive rebound and scored again. Not how you draw it up, but it more than wipes out the miss. I think we're doing better at FT shooting, and here's why I say that: Pre-conference FT shooting: 219/335 (.654) SEC FT shooting: 109/149 (.732) Individually: Richard (+12.74%) Clayton (+12.5%) Pullin (+3.33%) (but also, everybody has a better FT% in SEC play except for Kugel) Also, our top 3 FT shooters in pre-conference were shooting 43.2% of FTs, in SEC play, they have shot 49% of FTs. As a team, we've gone from worst in the conference (overall FT%) to 9th in the conference (SEC-only FT%), and 3rd in the SEC in total FTs made (again, SEC-only). It's not a strength, but it's far less of a weakness. Go GATORS! ,WESGATORS
Also, last night, MSU got within 6 points late (3+ minutes left). Our boys proceeded to hit 10 of their next 10 FTs including the first set by Condon (4 for 4 down that stretch). If he misses that front end of the first set, who knows if that gives MSU the opportunity they need to derail us down the stretch. Those were big FTs from someone who was shooting below 65% on the year. Go GATORS! ,WESGATORS
I long for the days where we argue about being a 3, 4 or 5 seed. 6 seed or lower was not part of the discussion
Our NET is 42, our RPI 43, our ELO 34 and KenPom 35. We would be about a 10 seed right now, quad one wins or not.
I feel like there is a difficult stretch w KY, A&M, Auburn, but that much of the latter portion of the SEC schedule opens up. We get Bama 2x which is another challenge. Getting a win in one of those would be big.
