Comparatively there is little inventory out there. Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in the United States
How much are Air bnbs cutting into available supply. “According to the watchdog group Inside Airbnb, real estate investment firms have contributed dramatically to the growth of Airbnb. In fact, about one-quarter of hosts on the Airbnb platform own nearly two-thirds of the listings. The return on investment is just that good. property owners, referred to as "hosts" by Airbnb, can make far more money renting their property to out-of-towners on a short-term basis than they would collect in monthly rent from a traditional renter.“ https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-reasons-airbnbs-are-partly-to-blame-for-the-housing-crisis
You have to address both sides. The demand is also lowered. You can’t have it both ways, where you say inventory is low, but demand is still high because if the prices were lower people would buy. The demand has to be assessed at the current price, not at an ideal price that people would pay if given the opportunity. It’s philosophical double-dipping.
Last crash was small investors creating a demand bubble. These investors now are deep pockets. If they were forced to liquidate that is the only catalyst I see that would drop prices Due to interest rates, and that just adds to the pent up demand waiting on rates to drop. Demand didn't disappear, just got delayed. If rates stay up, prices will drop but rates are coming down. Date the rate, marry the house. This may be your best market in the near future with prices slipping due to rates you can adjust later
Not half what the attorneys get...but better than straight up design/permit/certify work and more than I can make taking pictures..
Patagonia is competing with New Zealand for spring 25. Alaska trip in june, paris/london dec 24 for daughters graduation. September 24 is open target right now. Thinking Telluride area or back to Glacier/Lake Louise. We do enjoy London for walkability and ease of access to other destinations. Haven't found a comparable here in US.
This. Urban land institute has some good articles on it. Here is one from 2016. Anecdotally, the national home builders are bidding for tracts across sw florida, especially anything in Collier County. Ave Maria and Babcock Ranch can't deliver the lots to the nationals fast enough right now. Understanding the Scope of the Housing Shortage in the United States
Last crash was not simply a demand bubble. There was predatory lending, mortgage backed securities, and other causes. You can’t have it both ways. If there is pent up demand, there is pent up supply waiting for the right trigger. If the demand isn’t there now, you can’t just say oh… well the demand is there but it just isn’t here yet. The same would go for supply. It’s there, but it isn’t here yet. Terrible financial advice, and usually used by realtors to FOMO buyers into purchasing homes. I’m not a payment shopper, I’m a price shopper. If you overpay at the beginning, you can never refinance the purchase price. It is imperative to purchase correctly. I’m in a very strong financial position, and I will continue to invest as I wait for things to cool down. Price cuts are abundant. Almost every listing has price cuts. The example I showed you earlier is a new listing, but I assure you they will be price cutting very soon. The cuts just need to be bigger.
I don’t know if the baby boomers are the worst generation since they all have their own issues - I’m not even sure how you measure that anyway. But your last sentence is emblematic of the baby boomer generation prioritizing itself over everyone else. The debt has ballooned under the generation’s control as they have prioritized their current interests, income inequality has increased (including holding more corporate ownership ), prioritizing their own SS over making a solvent system, etc. There’s plenty of articles speaking to this issue. In some ways it reminds of a horde of locusts stripping bare the land for their own needs and leaving wasteland in their wake.
Agree 100%, but I think that’s what he is saying. Marry the house, as in get the house price right and don’t worry about the rate. You have to shop for deals in this market. Look for those dropping prices every few weeks. Those folks for one reason or another need to sell. Low ball hard. Most will laugh it off, but it only takes one. If they counter, you know they want a deal. Ignore those with outrageous prices that sit around for months. Or they drop $100 to move up the algorithm. Those people don’t need to move. They are just trying to maximize profit. Lower rates are likely coming in 2024. If they get down to the 5s, FOMO will kick in and prices will get worse. But that’s just my worthless opinion.
when the populace realized they could vote themselves the benefit of the treasury, the republic will be doomed.....or something like that...think it was Ben Franklin
demand comes from replacement and from new household development. the sale and move side will balance, the new household creation side that has not been satisfied for several years just continues to adds to the ownership deficit and feeds the rental side. I can see an apartment bust if/when the for sale product can catch up to demand. you should also consider the price to construct new. $250 per sf for two story, tile roof, nice upscale finish and cabinets is before lot, landscape, impact fees, pool, etc. you do you, just sharing my perspective having been in/around the development game through booms and busts in the cycle since the 80's and still playing in the game. market games on the tech side should offset the rise in housing. US Housing Supply Gap Expands- Realtor.com What Would it Take to Close the Gap? In 2022, the US saw the highest level of yearly household formations in the last decade with 2.06 million new households. The year’s pickup in household formation combined with the slow down in housing starts mean that if building and household formations continue at this clip, the gap between these metrics would never close. While 2021 boasted a best-in-5-year 0.98 home start:household formation ratio, this fell to 0.75 in 2022, worsening the total housing supply gap as well as the single-family home supply gap. The single-family housing supply gap reached 6.5 million homes by the end of 2022. However, this figure overstates the housing shortage, as new multi-family homes offer options to buyers and renters. However, though multifamily housing is poised to offer more inventory, taking some pressure off of home and rental prices, these homes take an average of 15 months to complete. Therefore, the impact of these housing starts won’t be fully realized until late 2023 and into 2024. If only single-family homes are considered, the rate of housing starts would need to triple to keep up with demand and close the existing 6.5 million home gap in 3 to 4 years. However, if the rate of total (multi- & single-family) housing starts increased by 50% from the 2022 rate to an average rate of 2.3 million housing starts per year, a pace of construction on par with what we saw in the early 1970s and some of the peak months for building in the mid-2000s, it would take between 2 and 3 years to close the existing 2.3 million home gap, assuming the 2012 – 2019 average rate of household formations (~1.3 million households per year). Closing the total housing gap would mean an increase in both single and multi-family supply would help return balance to the housing market by taking pressure off of both sale and rent prices.
with the reits or bnb franchise guys looking for houses to buy to add to rental pool, it is hard to find one that drops that much, even if they do have to sell. find the house with the best intrinsic value, views, location, lot size, but not most expensive in neighborhood, at market price per sf or less. don't overpay but don't be paralyzed on right opportunity because you refuse to pay market as market isn't going to get better...jmo
congrats. what does she do? did she get full time visa yet? my middle child will be graduating in December with PT degree. Remains to be seen if she stays in London. She will have choices between the UK, the US, or New Zealand. I'll be good with any of the three. I just wish LHR would get over themselves with the plane ticket taxes. We have never been for xmas season so that will be fun to see Paris and London xmas markets.
We are in agreement. Just as many sellers feel no pressure to sell, I also feel no pressure to buy. I’ve bought and sold quite a few houses in my life, so I understand the game. Unfortunately, it’s out of control right now, but I can at least control my own actions.
I never said Boomers didn’t have their own set of issues, and when it comes to materialism I think Boomers are the worst. But my comment that you quoted was relative to the subject matter of this thread, and to Boomers staying in their homes.
