Orlando Sentinel: UF AD Scott Stricklin Insists Billy Napier Is Not On Hot Seat

Actually, it was two. Machen already had Meyer in his sights and lined up, IMO. They only needed an excuse, something that happened in Starkeville amidst those cowbells.

 

It was the inexcusable loss to Miss State and also the incident where Zook showed up at a fraternity house — ostensibly because fraternity members were being mean to his poor football players — and threatened them or something. Here’s what I found after a quick search:

Frat fight? Gators' Zook apologizes after dispute

That’s the sort of thing you can get away with when you’re winning. When you’re not, well …

 

Most coaches believe that coaches should get 4 years to prove that their program is successful or not. As do most people who have studied the matter or are objective observers. Fans and boosters are too emotionally involved to be objective. They want to win "right now" if not sooner. ;-)

 

Coaches think coaches should get more time....that is some braniac level analysis right there!

 

Let’s say this season is a third disaster. No one here wants that, but let’s say that it happens. What, seriously, do you think would change with a fourth year? If the answer is probably nothing, then why waste the season?

 

A lot of things could happen. Sometimes, it is just maturity.

I do not consider the first two season disasters. They are rebuilding. Someone has to do that after Mullen's disaster with Grantham and Hevesey. Mullen went too far with them. He should have canned them after year 3 but he was too good to them. The offense had carried the team for 3 years but Mullen is too nice a guy and it cost him.

Napier was told after 2 years that he need to fix the defense and he did (or at least has tried). That gets him two more years.

He did not sit on his staff. He tried to make improvements. That is a big difference between standing pat.

Any admin would give Napier two more years because he is trying to right the ship.

It all has to do with the coach and whether he works with the AD or not IMHO.

You have to look at the situation.

That is my opinion anyway.

Every time you switch coaches you run the risk of a bad choice. Sometimes it works. Often it doesn't. If the coach is easy to work with he may get an extra year or two.

But a guy like DeBoer may not get the benefit of the doubt if he does not win big because he is more of a hired gun who will leave at the drop of the hat if he thinks he can get a better situation or more money elsewhere IMHO.

Just ask UW.

That is my opinion anyway.

I think that our admins are looking for stability. Someone who will be here for awhile and they are willing to go a little longer if they see that they have hooked a winner. That means they are willing to go at least 4 years (if things look like they may work out) to see if they are right.

We will see what they do but that is definitely "my take" on our present administration but I have been wrong before.

 

Odds are pretty high that he doesn't make it. He has too much going against him and the landscape is brutal. I sure wish that going into year 3 we had some positive momentum and examples of progress to carry with us, but we don't.

No one can lay all of the blame on him. The college football landscape changed dramatically since 2020 and the UAA and our AD were poorly suited to react properly
to it.

If Stricklin is smart, he bails ala Mike White for another job and a career mulligan. If he hangs around, he'll most certainly be fired after mens hoops misses another NCAA tourney.

 

I did not say more time. I said at least 4 years. Reading is fundamental!

That is backed by both experience AND research.

People's impatience has shortened that expectation which is costing athletic departments and boosters clubs to take more debt on. Which is probably unnecessary.

Just ask the most prominent Gator Boosters. They do not seem willing to take on that debt IMHO.

And it will not happen unless they want to continue to shoulder the load on buyouts IMHO.

 

Odds are high based upon what?

Can you give me a source that has calculated those supposed odds?

 

I think its more likely than not that he gets a 4th year, mainly due to the exorbitant buyout that Stricklin agreed to. I still don't believe it will matter in the end though.

 

Look at every failed head coach at this level. The similarities are striking. Scott Frost, Will Muschamp (2X), Harsin, etc.

Once the narrative turns negative, and its bad right now, its almost impossible to turn it around. Throw in another bad year (which most predict) and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

He's having a hard time holding on to commits due to the negative recruiting and our miserable NIL.
The competitive landscape has never been more difficult. I just don't see how he does it.

 

So you have just made an argument with unsubstantiated points. In other words, based upon your opinion.

You only have to go 180 miles to the west to disprove your theory. Norvell was in serious trouble after two seasons and turned that around in his third. And, now, seems to have it made.

There has been evidence posted on this very board pointing out that coaches who are NOT fired after two years do BETTER than new coaches who replace coaches fired after two years.

So they contend that just the OPPOSITE is true from your statement. Keeping a coach who is below .500 after two years is MORE SUCCESSFUL than replacing the coach with a new coach.

Which makes perfect sense because a new coach has to start over. So DeBoer is the exception not the rule.

Two articles are below. More are probably available by googling I presume.

Does Firing Your Football Coach Lead to Success? We don’t think so.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2012.00929.x

Our administrators (Presidents, BOT, AD, etc.) can read, observe, listen, etc. They will act when they think it is time IMHO.

 

I’ve said that I think he hangs around until the end of 2025. He’s not getting fired before then as it’s just too expensive to do that

I also think the mountain is too high to climb here.

Norvell hit the portal extensively to keep his job. There are no signs yet that Napier is doing the same. Norvell also benefited from an easy ACC schedule.

If Norvell was here instead of tally, he probably would be on the hot seat too.

 

Based on that methodology it was a mistake firing Mullen and going to Napier.

The evidence is there are dozens of major P5 coaches that had a poor first couple years and near zero ended up having major success. I can’t think of any with 3 poor starting years.

Napier may be one of the few. Here is hoping he is.

Now where I agree is there is no guarantee that if we fire Napier we will get better. We may still continue to stink. But the argument is what’s the worst case? We still stink? So status quo.

 

I agree with point one and two.

Our portal effort is getting getter. I do not know exactly what the problem is.

We wanted to start with freshmen and build but that got over run by the portal. Not really Napier's fault. That was the overall plan from SS and much higher! We wanted to built the old fashioned way for stability.

Perhaps, the mountain is too high but we will see. We have hired almost an entire defensive coaching staff and they will get a chance for at least two years, I think.

So, now we are having to catch up. Another reason that Napier gets more time.

If we reverse all the bad luck we have had the first two years we might even be in the running for a big bowl this year.

Stranger things have happened.

 

Not even close to true. You need to read my posts above with the links. People who have been kept after two below .500 years do better than other teams who replaced their coach after two years. I have done some of the research for you.

There are no guarantees either way. Napier could be a flop or a success. But since we are going to be paying Napier rather handsomely to sit around or coach somewhere else we might as well keep him if it looks like he could make it.

Of course, the same argument can be made to fire him. It is not as strong, and it is far more expensive, but it does have its followers and success stories. Not as many, but hope may be more powerful than reality to many.

My opinion is that stability at this time wins out. I do not think that Sasse and the BOT want the distraction and will let Napier ride for two years.

But I have been wrong before.

 

Jeremy had a saying that what should be done eventually must be done immediately or something to that effect. Of course he said that long before $40 million buyouts became common.

I really think that most coaches would have problems turning this program around.

The reasons have been mentioned here a lot so I won’t regurgitate them.

I’ll be 59 in May, I don’t expect to see a national championship in football or basketball ever again. Thankfully, I enjoyed our glory days and tried not to take them for granted.

 

I'll be 73 in May and I'll be glad just to see another FB and BB season. LOL.

 

At least inexcusable at the time, that heady period when Gator fans believed SOS would forever be the New Normal.

Of this I agree 100%. He was The Worst Ever while finishing with 8-5, 8-5 and 7-4 (.622). Ahhh, looking back...

 

Bro, I hear you. What wouldn’t we give for 8 wins right now?