let me ask you this....is your reason based on our lack of overall talent compared to our opponents, coaching, questions about the defense, or/and questions about the offense?
Arguably we'll have to win 6 of our first 7 games to get to .500 since only @ FSU appears to be a winnable game after 10/19.
must wins: Miami Samford MSU UCF Texas AnM is bonus and it is winnable Split UTenn and UK 5-1 Beat ole Miss or FSU ( possibly both) Seven wins is possible.. unlikely but possible. Would love to be wrong..
The only games on that schedule that are extreme long-shots to win are UGA and Texas. Could easily start 5-0 as long as there are no complete collapses a la Arky last year, and i don't know what you've seen from LSU or FSU the past couple years that makes you think those games are auto-losses. Optimistic would be calling for 8+ wins. 7 is completely reasonable, and 5 is pessimistic.
If we are better than last year, and I think we will be, 7-0 going into Georgia game possible though not likely. Tennessee in Knoxville will be the toughest challenge of the first 7, but they are ALL challenges. Neither LSU or FSU are that imposing. Don’t know what you will get from LSU but we get them at home. FSU will run up wins because of their schedule but their charmed season was last year and they blew it.
We've seen the Heisman winner have an insane game at home to pull away late for LSU in 2023 and that same player have an insane game in 2022 to get a 10-point win. He's gone, as are his two top receivers. To think they will maintain the same output and our team with the majority of major contributors returning won't improve at all is pretty pessimistic. And FSU has not spanked us. They've won the last 2 games by a combined 16 points with last year being a battle of the backups, and they lost basically every contributor. DJU is a step back from Travis, and even if they hit on portal additions they aren't replacing Wilson and Coleman. Again, unless you just assume that UF doesn't improve at all there's no reason to think that game is a loss in January.
All of these. Plus, other teams will be improved as well, such as Miami and Ole Miss. I expect we will lose at least one game we should win based on Napier's track record. Hopefully S&C will be improved, and I expect our defense will be better than last year. We will be a better team in 2024 but it won't be reflected in the W-L record due to our tough schedule. The way I see it now: Saturday, Aug. 31 vs. Miami - TOSSUP Saturday, Sept. 7 vs. Samford - WIN Saturday, Sept. 14 vs. Texas A&M - TOSSUP Saturday, Sept. 21 at Mississippi State - WIN Saturday, Oct. 5 vs. UCF - WIN Saturday, Oct. 12 at Tennessee - LOSS Saturday, Oct. 19 vs. Kentucky - LOSS Saturday, Nov. 2 vs. Georgia - LOSS Saturday, Nov. 9 at Texas - LOSS Saturday, Nov. 16 vs. LSU - TOSSUP Saturday, Nov. 23 vs. Ole Miss - LOSS Saturday, Nov. 30 at Florida State - LOSS
Well that’s one way to look at it. At least you can be super excited with every win past 3 that we achieve!
Wow, a 7 - 0 start heading into UGA would be special. I like your thinking 2old! Of course UF was 5 - 2 heading into UGA last year. I hope Napier improves on the end of season fade(s) of the last 2 years. I understand the concern of Gator Nation heading into Billys year 3. Considering it looks like he will be our coach, at least to begin year 3, he has my unreserved support! I really like coach and hope we see a third year payoff, but the schedule, on the surface, looks tough, but ALOT of games in state. Hopefully that helps.
He just needs to coach his ass off, this year. We have seen a lot of upgrades, restructuring and foundation building. But there were some losses last year that had little to do with that. That can’t happen this year. I’m ok with whatever W-L record looks like at end of year. As long as we fight like hell and don’t “give” games away.
This is completely reasonable considering the issues we saw this past season. We don’t have an OC yet and Billy showed spurts of sound play calling but overall showed an untrustworthy grasp of handling games i.e. trick play calling. The defense, Ron Roberts still isnt on board, until we see actual improvement from Armstrong no reason to believe the defense will be an overhaul. Special Teams appears to be status quo, it will be led by an analyst for the third year in a row, and has been a remarkable disappointment under Napier. Combine that with the lack of discipline and effort we saw last season and the predictions above look optimistic. All that said, I give Napier effort for trying. He’s dug himself a mile deep hole, and he’s out of grace in year 3. This is his roster completely now.
Well Tolbert - You got us to 3 wins - Samford, MSU, UCF Toss-Ups: 3 Absolute best case scenerio is 6 wins based on your logic with 4 to 5 wins the most probable. I suspect you are somewhat in line with what Vegas will announce come spring ball. This of course is a rather disappointing projection but not really out of line given an analysis of the last 2 years. I would like to spin it up a bit different based on: 1) UF is only as good as it's record (like everybody else) but it really is not unresonable to think UF could have easily gone 7 - 5 too. 2) UF lost some close games. Arky and Mizzou immediately come to mind, Won a close one - USCe. Were in the LSU and FSU games but the defense could not make key stops. Anyway: why UF "could" be better: 1) Another year in the program for those that decided to stick. 2) Mertz/Lagway head the QB room, which suddenly, may be one of the better QB rooms in the SEC with the new addittions. 3) New assistant coaches, starting with a new S&C program over the summer. 4) A perception that the OL just "might" be better, with the new transfers and year of experience. 5) How could the DEFENSE not be better? 6) One could also apply the same logic to Special teams.........can't get worse can it? 7) I would like to think UF will create more than a paltry (6) turnovers. Now I'm spilling my O&B guts all over the place here to argue why UF "should" be better. This comes from the eternal Gator optimist in me. At the end of the day, UF is staring three straight losing seasons in the face. I have serious reservations about Gator Nation enduring a 4th without making head coaching changes. I hope Napier can pull it off.
I'm certain my answer wont change your mind - but I'll play. As @bobbybaker86 asked -- what is it about the team that has you so pessimistic about our upcoming season. I feel like we will see improvement in most areas of the team and probably a significant improvement in a few of those areas. In addition, I like our roster. The biggest question marks are the OL and the LB units. The rest of the roster is a solid SEC roster...and a few of those units have a high ceiling. (We lost two impact players but one of them never learned to shut his mouth and needed to go. Most of our opponents lost a lot of impact players.) We just wrapped up a frustrating season and you're still upset. Off-season conditioning just started and we are a few months away from spring ball. Your 3-5 win prediction is based off of the performance of our opponents in '23 and is not taking into account that we are going to get better (and we didn't lose much from our roster). I cannot dismiss this team one week into conditioning. Why seven wins? Seven of our opponents are breaking in a new QB in '24. We have a 6th year player starting for us who is entering his 2nd season at UF. This is a big deal and could prove to be why we pull off an upset in '24. Our toughest games: Texas, Ole Miss, UGA Road games: Mississippi State, Tennessee, Texas and FSU Lose all three of the toughest games. Win vs Samford and UCF. Win two on the road. Win three of Miami, Kentucky, A&M, and LSU. Now imagine what happens if our OL and DL take a big step forward...or the LB unit...or all three units??? Lord knows they hit bottom last year so it can't get any worse. But what if those units start to consistently impact the game? Yep, @4RoswellGators is gonna start lying about this team in a hurry.
T here was some of that for certain but we lost players to straight cash too as some of those went to programs paying, not winning.
2 went to Auburn, who's 1st year coach managed to coach a team that was a bigger dumpster fire than UF was 2 years ago to a better record. So maybe more $$ + better results created the flips. Other than the one that dipped to Miami, I can't think of another that went to a program that was not winning.
Ehhh, I don't think cash was THEE deciding factor in those kids who flipped to Auburn and A&M since we had those guys committed all season until we dropped the ball on the field. I mean plus we all knew it was going to be tough to hold onto Amaris Williams from the jump
