Taiwan defies China, electing a new president Beijing labeled a separatist If we choose to believe the words that have come out of Xi’s mouth over the last 10 years years, then this is an ominous sign indeed. The U.S. and its allies probably need to start preparing for a war that none of us wants.
Truly, no idea. But if I were the Combatant Commander for INDOPACOM, then I would taking as much initiative to prepare my forces as the law allows.
It had to do with fueling up to make sure you could get out of port quickly. I read something a while back that said part of the reason for the accident was due to the operational paste because we did not wanna leave too many ships in port at any time where they were susceptible to Long Range missiles.
Just to play devils advocate - if China invades, what is the case for us to go to war? Is there any scenario that Taiwan with US backing can actually win? We definitely need to continue to develop alternatives for key semiconductor and chip production.
China has no real navy. Quantity is a quality all on its own but an invasion would be a really bad move on China’s part but dictators make bad decisions for reasons that make no sense to outsiders.
China has a very significant navy. Not near ours but formidable in the South China Sea. Just about to launch their first fully built carrier. They have purchased and refurbished others. The biggest risk re: Taiwan is not invasion; it is blockade. Taiwan's natural features and the logistics make invasion all but impossible. But it would be very difficult to defeat a blockade that tried to compel submission. Taiwan is so reliant on imports for sustenance
Yes. But the variable is the degree to which Taiwan resists. Taiwan is a very, very difficult nut to crack if the people resist the same way Ukraine has. Without going into details, we can defeat China (not easily), but it would require time. If Taiwan could hold out with minimal outside support for, say, a month, then our chances of ultimate success go way up. If Taiwan folds or only gives token resistance, then it doesn’t matter what the U.S. or its allies do. A reckless President might order INDOPACOM into a naval version of the Charge of the Light Brigade, and it would probably be a disaster unless China performs as poorly as Russia has. And we cannot assume that they will.
Your information is out of date. Since Xi has come to power, many of the factors that led us to casually assume an amphibious operation would be prohibitively difficult are no longer the case. PLA has spent about 10 years arming and training for this mission.
Interesting question philosophically, but not practical in terms of reality. It’s a longer discussion, but essentially there’s no case to be made for the American people because the President is effectively the sole decider on this issue and by the time it goes to Congress it would be a fait accompli. What I mean is this: the Taiwan Relations Act directs the President to inform Congress in the event that China uses military means to affect unification. It also strongly implies that the President has the authority to act while Congress decides whether to declare war, grant statutory powers for limited war, etc. In the mean time, assuming the President decided to act, Americans will have been killed, and it would be very politically difficult for the Congress not pass some sort of statutory resolution in support of the war. So the real question is not, “Should we go to war in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?” Rather it is, “What is the President going to decide to do?” Now, a president may decide to do nothing (entirely plausible), and the Congress may declare war without the President, but frankly the war could be over before Congress does so. That being the case, it all comes down to what a President decides in, say, the first 24 hours. One last thing I’ll add is that there are two main schools of thought in international relations when it comes to making war: international liberalism, led presently by John Ikenberry; and realism, led presently by John Mearsheimer. These don’t break down neatly into left and right the way our domestic politics do; Democrats and Republicans embrace elements of each theory from time to time. Usually, if one tradition supports going to war, the other is dead opposed. The case of Taiwan, however, is a fascinating instance of both theories agreeing that Chinese aggression must be checked, even though they don’t agree on why. In my opinion, the President would decide to intervene. The main questions then would be: 1. Can Taiwan hold out long enough to make a difference? And 2. If Taiwan falls, how long do we keep fighting before we accept the change in circumstances?
So we have watched a Russian military that said it spent money on weapons and it ended up all being basically embezzled. You now are sure that the military buildup in China is real.
I’m sure the buildup is real, yes. I’m sure that Xi has done a lot more than Putin has to root out corruption, yes. Am I sure that the PLA is as good as it is supposed to be with the resources it has been given? No. And I sure hope it’s every bit as bad as Russia. But, frankly, you aren’t paying me to hope away threats. That’s more of a Jake Sullivan thing.
I actually heard Mearsheimer interviewed on Lex Fridman and yes I was surprised he said we would need to respond - my recollection was that strategically if we just give up that leaves China unchecked in the east.
Geographically, China would be able to dominate what’s called the First Island Chain, which extends from the Japanese Ryukus to the Philippines. And, yes, China has designs on both, not to conquer per se but to make them vassals that extend China’s control of the seas. You only have to look at their intentions for the South China Sea and imagine that same area extended out from Taiwan.
I hope nothing comes of it. Don't want to see more loss of life, and I especially don't want to have to worry about the nimrods in Congress trying to undercut this like they have Ukraine.
??? China's navy surpassed ours in 2020. You know...when they pulled the puppet strings that control our leadership and had them dancing like marionettes to Chinese music, and voluntarily incur >7 trillion dollars of new debt to wage a war against a contagion they designed and deployed..... [So much more to their tentacles, but I'll just leave it at the painfully clear ones...]: ...but no...they actually have a pretty real navy. Expert's warning to US Navy on China: Bigger fleet almost always wins | CNN
Should an invasion occur, it will be interesting to watch the Republican contingent that won't fund Ukraine against Russia try to rationalize why we should not fund/support Taiwan against China. Since China controls the White House, acording to their thinking, should Biden take the immediate action option (as described by @uftaipan above) that contingent will be forced to either support Biden or give China the South China Sea. Quite the quandary.
