Taiwan Elects Separatist President

Taiwan defies China, electing a new president Beijing labeled a separatist

If we choose to believe the words that have come out of Xi’s mouth over the last 10 years years, then this is an ominous sign indeed. The U.S. and its allies probably need to start preparing for a war that none of us wants.

 

Truly, no idea. But if I were the Combatant Commander for INDOPACOM, then I would taking as much initiative to prepare my forces as the law allows.

 

Yes. But the variable is the degree to which Taiwan resists. Taiwan is a very, very difficult nut to crack if the people resist the same way Ukraine has. Without going into details, we can defeat China (not easily), but it would require time. If Taiwan could hold out with minimal outside support for, say, a month, then our chances of ultimate success go way up.

If Taiwan folds or only gives token resistance, then it doesn’t matter what the U.S. or its allies do. A reckless President might order INDOPACOM into a naval version of the Charge of the Light Brigade, and it would probably be a disaster unless China performs as poorly as Russia has. And we cannot assume that they will.

 

Your information is out of date. Since Xi has come to power, many of the factors that led us to casually assume an amphibious operation would be prohibitively difficult are no longer the case. PLA has spent about 10 years arming and training for this mission.

 

Interesting question philosophically, but not practical in terms of reality. It’s a longer discussion, but essentially there’s no case to be made for the American people because the President is effectively the sole decider on this issue and by the time it goes to Congress it would be a fait accompli.

What I mean is this: the Taiwan Relations Act directs the President to inform Congress in the event that China uses military means to affect unification. It also strongly implies that the President has the authority to act while Congress decides whether to declare war, grant statutory powers for limited war, etc. In the mean time, assuming the President decided to act, Americans will have been killed, and it would be very politically difficult for the Congress not pass some sort of statutory resolution in support of the war.

So the real question is not, “Should we go to war in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?” Rather it is, “What is the President going to decide to do?” Now, a president may decide to do nothing (entirely plausible), and the Congress may declare war without the President, but frankly the war could be over before Congress does so. That being the case, it all comes down to what a President decides in, say, the first 24 hours.

One last thing I’ll add is that there are two main schools of thought in international relations when it comes to making war: international liberalism, led presently by John Ikenberry; and realism, led presently by John Mearsheimer. These don’t break down neatly into left and right the way our domestic politics do; Democrats and Republicans embrace elements of each theory from time to time. Usually, if one tradition supports going to war, the other is dead opposed. The case of Taiwan, however, is a fascinating instance of both theories agreeing that Chinese aggression must be checked, even though they don’t agree on why.

In my opinion, the President would decide to intervene. The main questions then would be: 1. Can Taiwan hold out long enough to make a difference? And 2. If Taiwan falls, how long do we keep fighting before we accept the change in circumstances?

 

I’m sure the buildup is real, yes. I’m sure that Xi has done a lot more than Putin has to root out corruption, yes. Am I sure that the PLA is as good as it is supposed to be with the resources it has been given? No. And I sure hope it’s every bit as bad as Russia. But, frankly, you aren’t paying me to hope away threats. That’s more of a Jake Sullivan thing.

 

Geographically, China would be able to dominate what’s called the First Island Chain, which extends from the Japanese Ryukus to the Philippines. And, yes, China has designs on both, not to conquer per se but to make them vassals that extend China’s control of the seas. You only have to look at their intentions for the South China Sea and imagine that same area extended out from Taiwan.