It seems to me like it depends on how they count "jobs added" ... if the BLS estimates the total number of jobs for the month, then subtract that from last months total jobs, to calculate the increase/decrease, then City is correct, that number self corrects month over month, and isn't cumulative. But I don't know how that number is calculated, just pointing out the mathematical fact, there. The OP made this thread about "this administration" ... Job gains during all three of Bidens years are all extraordinary ... 2022 is an all-time record, and you have to go back to 1984 to find a better year than 2021 or 2023 .... Seems like something Biden should be talking about.
Job growth or jobs regained from our insane lockdowns? We lost 9.29 million jobs in 2020. Intentionally burn down a perfectly good building then say hey look at what I rebuilt.
Ok, I get you on the math, I was understanding that what they report is new jobs added and if they do reduce the overall with the revisions then it would be in the next months, almost I said wouldn't it? The month starts more or less with a deficit. As far as the jobs added, let's not forget, just as we can't blame Trump admin for not creating jobs because of the pandemic, we can't give credit for bringing those back either. Trump should be viewed from pre pandemic numbers, just as Biden should be judged on once pre pandemic numbers are returned, then up from there.
I feel like 2023 is a little too late be talking about the Covid rebound ... Trump lost 8.7 million jobs in 2020, but Biden more than made up for that with +10.4 million in 2021 and 2022 combined .... so 2023 stands on its own as a great year, IMO.,
It's generated off of two surveys. There isnt a spreadsheet of every job holder in America where they add and subtract. They estimate job workers by the survey results. They estimate the working population and then compare to prior month - the jobs added or subtracted is derived.. not added month to month. As they get more data in they adjust the results. See the technical note in the release below: "This news release presents statistics from two major surveys, the Current Population Survey (CPS; household survey) and the Current Employment Statistics survey (CES; establishment survey). The household survey provides information on the labor force, employment, and unemployment that appears in the "A" tables, marked HOUSEHOLD DATA. It is a sample survey of about 60,000 eligible households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The establishment survey provides information on employment, hours, and earnings of employees on nonfarm payrolls; the data appear in the "B" tables, marked ESTABLISHMENT DATA. BLS collects these data each month from the payroll records of a sample of nonagricultural business establishments. Each month the CES program surveys about 122,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 666,000 individual worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls. The active sample includes approximately one-third of all nonfarm payroll jobs. For both surveys, the data for a given month relate to a particular week or pay period. In the household survey, the reference period is generally the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month. In the establishment survey, the reference period is the pay period including the 12th, which may or may not correspond directly to the calendar week." https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
I don't give this administration credit for much of anything, but I have to agree that 21 and 22 were just getting us back to pre-pandemic and 23 stands on its own and it has been a good year for job growth.
You have to remember back when Trump was running things we were all wiping our butts with leaves because there was no toilet paper. So much better now. My leaves in the back yard are free of poop. Thanks Biden!
Ok, thanks! Let me ask this question. If the report say we added 2.7 mil jobs for the year, this would mean the survey had 150M reported last year and have 152.7M reported for this year? Is that correct?
How I know I can’t have a serious discussion with you. You think any president really has that much influence. Trump is not responsible for the 9 millions jobs lost in 2020 as much as Biden did anything to add those jobs back. The supply chain issue plus trillions pumped into the economy between 2020 and 2021 had way more to do with growth which both Trump and Biden contributed to. It also caused insane inflation.
Just stop. You said the jobs added were just covid rebound jobs. It was pointed out to you that we are now well beyond the number of jobs we had before covid. Now you're saying presidents have little influence on jobs.
They don't have a lot of influence. Just like Biden and Trump didn't have a lot of influence on oil production. Covid lockdowns caused millions to lose jobs. Supply chain issues followed by large demand as we reopened, congress and the president signing large sums of money into markets, and Feds QE (over 44 billion a month) are what supercharged our economy. You combine reopening plus new levels of demand we didn't have even before the pandemic, of course economy is going to add jobs and add them quickly. The only thing the last two presidents did was sign a paper that had already passed through Congress. If you truly want to give Biden credit, you have to give Trump some since the V shape recovery had already started before Biden could even sign anything into law. And I know how much people like you hate to give Trump credit for anything haha. Also, we were at 164 million labor force before the pandemic. Now at 167 million. We went down to 156 million and back to 160 million Jan 2021. It's crazy what happens when businesses are forced to close but eventually allowed to open again... This is such trivial stuff that how it's not obvious to you concerns me. Or is it simply you just only know how to cheer for one team no matter what the truth is?
That's pretty funny coming from you. You coming rushing to any thread about good economic news to try to downplay it. Don't recall you doing that when Trump was president. As for what presidents do, Biden passed 3 major bills, infrastructure, green energy, and the Chips Act, that are all currently creating jobs in the US. We've been gaining millions of jobs per year despite constant predictions of recession due to the high Fed interest rates. What did Trump pass? All I can think of is a tax cut in 2017. That's about it.
I truly am not trying to trap you in to saying something then blowing it up in your face. I am trying to have a better understanding and even though we were miles apart at the beginning of this discussion. I think we have come to agreement as to how the numbers are attained. I do think though that the statement that the jobs created was overstated by 400.000 jobs through the year is a factual statement. Not sure how you can dispute that. But at least we had one point of agreement.
At no point were any jobs over stated by 400k. How is it you are still confused after reading the notes from the BLS? If every day for a year I estimated how much water was in my bath tub and i was off a gallon a day, you’d say I was off 365 gallons. If I estimated the water in my bath tub once a week for a year and I was off a gallon you’d say I was off 52 gallons. If I made that estimate once a month you’d say I was off 12 gallons? That is nuts and only something someone with an agenda would do. I never estimated more than a gallon off at any one time and they are not additive. That is as elementary as I can make it for you.
I understand what you are saying but trying to make it simple for you to understand the point trying to be made. If I overestimate the jobs by 50,000, then I overestimated by 50,000, right? If I overestimate that much every month, then isn't my cumulative overestimation for the year all those added up? With your analogy, I would say you overestimated a gallon a day which means in the course of a year you overestimated by 365 gal, 1 gallon a day. There has to be able to cumulate the over estimation to determine if how it is being done is accurate, or do you just say they are off on average 50,000 a month?
You are off 50k per month. It isn't additive. That is why we have statistics to use like an average, standard deviations, etc. As you saw in my example of the bath tub, adding up the variance times the number of observations is silly and meaningless - you get a different number depending on your frequency of measure. Presenting the data as if the BLS has said there are 400k more jobs than there are isnt misleading, it is a lie. They have never estimated that far off.
