I thought the claim was that the number of jobs added was revised downward by a net of 417k over the course of the year. That has nothing to do with the labor force.
Ok let's look at one month. Ill use October since it was the most recent month with all 3 revisions. October headline number was 150k jobs added. After BLS had 3 months to review and revise, they came out and said the final jobs added for October was 105k which is 45k less. So tell me how that does not mean that there are 45k fewer jobs for October added to the labor force. Started with 150k and ended with 105k.
Those revisions are in the December first numbers. So when you have a final count for the December jobs they took them out. So even if December is overcounted again by say 50k jobs.. it had 45k over counted in October, 45k taken out in December and 50k too many added.. its not 45k+50K for god’s sake.. its 45k-45K+50k over.. totally 50k. I’m really not sure why this is confusing for you.
Octobers final revision was released last week. So when I gave you October’s numbers, its final per BLS after its 3 revisions is 105k jobs added for October. The headline number was 150k. So tell me, how many less jobs did October have between its headline and final revision?
They were off 71,000 in just Oct/Nov. The job market is strong but let's not pretend the overestimate is insignificant. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...tions-december-wages-rise-solidly-2024-01-05/
I’m done. The math is easy. If you over estimate 50k every month it’s only 50k overestimated. I can’t help you. My mom’s a calc teacher. Pm me and I’ll hook you up.
Yes exactly they overestimated by 45k. Wow so you do understand. So that would mean instead of October adding 150k jobs, it’s only added 105k jobs. You don’t need Calc to do that math!! again the claim was never the labor force lost 417k jobs. It’s just didn’t add as much as the initial headline number. That’s still alarming that BLS so far is over 400k off from the headline numbers for 2023. The markets and feds make decisions based on their report.
Here’s 204k off in 4 months Trumps final year before COVID. 146k just in two months in a row. No one questioned the numbers. We simply said it was a continuation of Obama trend.
Ifd a general term to use when talking about the addition or subtraction of jobs. Want me to spell it out in an already “complicated” discussion. I would hope most here understand what we are talking about. Obviously BLS uses the term for those that are employed and those unemployed looking for employment.
It's not complicated and you don't need to spell it out. All you have to do is say 'jobs' instead of 'labor force'. It's one syllable instead of 3 and it's actually the correct term.
Fun fact ... 2023 was Biden's third best (worst) year for job growth, at 2.7 Million new jobs ... but still better than any Trump year....
City just can't admit he is wrong!! By his take the 45,000 overestimates in October is reflected in the December numbers. So, the reality of that statement is December started the month with a deficit of 45,000 jobs added. His claim is the overestimate is reflected in the next month's calculations so that is the only way to take what he is saying. I don't believe that is correct, I thought the number put out was the actual number of jobs added that month, then as more data comes in that original number gets increased or or decreased to be much more accurate for what that month added, not added or decreased from the next months reporting. This has nothing to do with what Trump did or even what Biden has done. It is more about the flaw in the counting of additional jobs added.
